Putin is losing his war badly, so bad he threatened nukes. What should the response be if he does?

phillysailor

Super Anarchist
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They took Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014. Why did NATO not stop them from both??
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Because Obama was weak, of course.

More specifically, Obama was weak in that he allowed the other major NATO members to determine NATO's reaction... you might call it democracy (and you might say that this proves democracy itself is weak).
History has proven you wrong, Steamers.

When Russia invaded in 2014, Ukraine was powerless to protect itself, let alone take back lost ground.

In 8 years, thanks to investment by NATO, and the support of many democracies, Ukraine has not only defended itself, but has badly wounded an authoritarian regime.

Democracy has shown itself to be so powerful that it took a 98 pound weakling and taught it to fight a superpower.
 

Steam Flyer

Sophisticated Yet Humble
44,091
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Eastern NC
History has proven you wrong, Steamers.

When Russia invaded in 2014, Ukraine was powerless to protect itself, let alone take back lost ground.

In 8 years, thanks to investment by NATO, and the support of many democracies, Ukraine has not only defended itself, but has badly wounded an authoritarian regime.

Democracy has shown itself to be so powerful that it took a 98 pound weakling and taught it to fight a superpower.

A big part of the problem is that in 2014, Ukraine was saddled with a pro-Russian President. He had been elected with much of the same kind of fuckery that got Trump elected, in fact that is where Manafort was working.

In 1991, when Ukraine seperated from Russia, their military planners immediately set about figuring out how they could defeat Russia in a war for their independence because they knew the Russian would come for them, as they had several times in the past 300 years. And Ukraine could (and did) put up a hell of a fight and could probably have prevailed in the end, although perhaps lost the Donbas as well as Crimea, it was enormous amounts of support in material and training that has turned the tide so quickly. And it ain't over.

Also, you might want to get your sarcasm detector adjusted. Or perhaps my sarcasm encoder is faulty.
 
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kent_island_sailor

Super Anarchist
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5,119
Kent Island!
A big part of the problem is that in 2014, Ukraine was saddled with a pro-Russian President. He had been elected with much of the same kind of fuckery that got Trump elected, in fact that is where Manafort was working.

In 1991, when Ukraine seperated from Russia, their military planners immediately set about figuring out how they could defeat Russia in a war for their independence because they knew the Russian would come for them, as they had several times in the past 300 years. And Ukraine could (and did) put up a hell of a fight and could probably have prevailed in the end, although perhaps lost the Donbas as well as Crimea, it was enormous amounts of support in material and training that has turned the tide so quickly. And it ain't over.

Also, you might want to get your sarcasm detector adjusted. Or perhaps my sarcasm encoder is faulty.
You really need purple for sarcasm now in all cases. We are so far from normal I can never tell anymore when someone is serious and half the real headlines read like something straight out of The Onion.
 

kent_island_sailor

Super Anarchist
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Kent Island!
Throwing the dice against a nuclear superpower doesn't work.

If we win, we are left with a demoralized and broken powder keg that is still a nuclear superpower.

If we lose, we are left with the potential end of humanity and culture as we know it.

Russia can and likely will withdraw from the Ukraine soon (with the right incentives) because they are losing an asymmetric fight. But against NATO? The asymmetry vanishes and the eventual result is the last recourse, the one none of us want to think about. That is not a regular defeat, kind of a mutual, planet-wide defeat.
Problem is, once you let Putin play the nuke card once it will get played again and again for Latvia, Poland, or anything else he thinks he deserves.
 

mikewof

mikewof
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Problem is, once you let Putin play the nuke card once it will get played again and again for Latvia, Poland, or anything else he thinks he deserves.
Maybe, but there is an enormous cost to these adventures. Between Kuwait, Iraq and Afghanistan, our grandchildren will still pay the debt on our follies, it is even more difficult for Russia.

I see your point, and it is a bitter pill to swallow, but nukes invalidate the regular rules of superiority. If nothing else, this mess teaches us how we need to advance the NPT and move post-nuclear.
 

kent_island_sailor

Super Anarchist
27,191
5,119
Kent Island!
Maybe, but there is an enormous cost to these adventures. Between Kuwait, Iraq and Afghanistan, our grandchildren will still pay the debt on our follies, it is even more difficult for Russia.

I see your point, and it is a bitter pill to swallow, but nukes invalidate the regular rules of superiority. If nothing else, this mess teaches us how we need to advance the NPT and move post-nuclear.
The end result is a nuclear war anyway.
"Give the crazy dictator something so he will be happy and not bother us" is a game that ends just one way. Once Putin sees he can get what he wants with a nuclear threat, what he wants and the threats both will expand enormously.
I have my finger on the button and want Lithuania as of noon today
Well Lithuania is just some far off place of which we know little, who gives a shit, let him have it.
Next up is London and Paris ;)
 

SloopJonB

Super Anarchist
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Great Wet North
Remember Munich.

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Steam Flyer

Sophisticated Yet Humble
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Eastern NC
Maybe, but there is an enormous cost to these adventures. Between Kuwait, Iraq and Afghanistan, our grandchildren will still pay the debt on our follies, it is even more difficult for Russia.

I see your point, and it is a bitter pill to swallow, but nukes invalidate the regular rules of superiority. If nothing else, this mess teaches us how we need to advance the NPT and move post-nuclear.

So, what you're saying is, after Putin is defeated we need to take away Russia's nukes. Every one. And install a regime of inspection to make sure they don't build any more.

Now, what's the plan for Iran and North Korea?
 

mikewof

mikewof
45,639
1,209
The end result is a nuclear war anyway.
"Give the crazy dictator something so he will be happy and not bother us" is a game that ends just one way. Once Putin sees he can get what he wants with a nuclear threat, what he wants and the threats both will expand enormously.
I have my finger on the button and want Lithuania as of noon today
Well Lithuania is just some far off place of which we know little, who gives a shit, let him have it.
Next up is London and Paris ;)

If that is your take, then we might as well get it over with, preemptively launch our nukes and get ready for life post-nuclear.

These hypothetical scenarios will exist forever, but in real life, today, Ukraine is winning, Russia is losing and we have as much at stake as anyone.
 
D

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they're gonna win. no matter what our losers in control do.
 

Rain Man

Super Anarchist
7,163
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Wet coast.
It is interesting that Russia and the US have both lost conventional wars, but up to now neither threatened to use nukes. The fact that Putin is playing this card now suggests this war is about his legacy as he knows he will lose power soon. He is weak and grasping at straws to try to fix this big miscalculation.

He must be stopped at any cost. Even that one.
 




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