Restarting America Means People Will Die. So When Should We Do It?

[Gouvernail]

I'm sure there are others who share your perception of reality.  Really.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/hdn/hrlm/p/callback.html

 

[Burning Man]

Sorry, Jeff, I did not participate in that thread but it sounds like it was great fun. I spent the better part of March moving to my Oregon ranch to stay away from this virus crap. From your tone, you sound like you need some Poise pads to keep your dignity afloat. Should I arrange to have some sent to you?

See, aren't you now wishing you had kept your SCAR for your Oregon ranch to ward of the imminent wave of infected zombies??

 

[Burning Man]

We just handed our children and our grandchildren and their grandchildren a mess that is going to take them a good chunk of their lives to clean up for us. The old, orange man shat on the floor, and the teenager now has to mop it up.

FIFY.

Nice rant BTW.  Solid A. It only missed an A+ because it didn't have enough of the requisite TDS in your screed necessary to win over the crowd here.

 

[roundthebuoys]

So you link to data without knowing what the data tells you? Look at the data you posted and get back to me about what is defined as "case." Hospital admission? A physician over the phone telling someone "might be the virus, stay inside and get back to me in two days"?

Even with our dodgy data, we're at 98.5% survival rate. With the Lancet data we're closer to 99.8% survival rate. 

If you want a specific answer you need to pose a specific question.

Did you come up with the data that shows a spike in Pneumonia cases from 1000 to 530,000 in one month yet? 

 

[badlatitude]

See, aren't you now wishing you had kept your SCAR for your Oregon ranch to ward of the imminent wave of infected zombies??

Ha Ha, Funny how all of my ranch hands got a subsidized SCAR.

 

[mikewof]

And wasting it. 

You should be glad you inherited your wealth, because you apparently have only enough creativity to run a popsicle stand.

 

[mikewof]

Did you come up with the data that shows a spike in Pneumonia cases from 1000 to 530,000 in one month yet? 

Since you don't seem to care what a "case" is, sure. You want to place a wager?

 

[mikewof]

One of the more odd differentiators between COVID and a "flu"

https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-symptoms-loss-smell-taste.html

https://www.livescience.com/odd-coronavirus-symptom-smell-loss.html

And it may require a rehab to get it back.

https://www.cnet.com/features/coronavirus-patients-losing-their-sense-of-smell-here-is-what-thats-like/

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/health/smell-taste-coronavirus-pandemic-wellness-intl-gbr/index.html

Anosmia can be produced entirely by emotional stress ...

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3782615/

 

[DustyDreamer]

Every time I see "TDS" I read it as "total dissolved solids".

 

[mikewof]

Well, there you go. All them doctors 'n shit ain't as smart as Woofsey. He be much MUCH smarter'n dem.

- DSK

Most doctors know how to read a simple CDC chart. You and VHM, not so much.

I seem smart to you the way a the guy who throws the stick seems smart to the Labrador Retriever.

 

[roundthebuoys]

Since you don't seem to care what a "case" is, sure. You want to place a wager?

The link from the CDC says Covid-19 "cases". there's nothing to wager.  just show me a CDC pneumonia case link exactly like I showed you that shows 1000 to 530,000 in one month.  

 

[mikewof]

Thank you.  That one statement alters the problem.  From what I had read (not Fox or garbage sites) was that there was promise for a vaccine in 14-18 months.  
 

If Coronavirus germs (they have been around for some time) are that hard to vaccine against, then expending effort on quantifying makes sense.  

There are no coronavirus germs.

It's a virus, it needs a host cell. There will be some localised vaccines, good against a few popular stains.

But from now on, until humanity once again shifts to worrying about bacterial infections more than viral infections, you will -- every season -- line up to get your Flu/Corona/Pneumonia shot.

And then someday, if we still don't learn our lesson from coinfections, it will be the Flu/Corona/Rhino/Pneumonia shot. Because ultimately, it's much simpler to blame deaths on microbes than bad air, bad food, bad water and bad lifestyle.

But I am 100% certain that we will all die, every one of us, some a bit sooner, some a bit later, and no magic wand is going to change that.

 

[Lark]

I actually think something like that is going to happen in at least one of the dumb states; some kind of loud re-opening at the beginning of May that becomes an exciting livestreamed experiment for a month or so.  Kind of like the way Sweden has proudly undertaken a similar experiment.  It's incredibly valuable to have that data just as it is sad for all the Swedes that would not be dead but for the government's failure to listen to its scientists.

Yet Sweden is doing fairly well.   Spain, Italy, Belgium, France, Netherlands, UK, Switzerland, Luxembourg all have more deaths per million then Sweden,    There seems to be a randomness to this that defies public health policy decisions.    Why has Michigan been nailed and not Georgia?   Trying to attach clear cause and effect seems about as useful as assigning it to God’s wrath against _______.

 

[mikewof]

The link from the CDC says Covid-19 "cases". there's nothing to wager.  just show me a CDC pneumonia case link exactly like I showed you that shows 1000 to 530,000 in one month.  

With over 2 million pneumonia infections, 1 million pneumonia hospitalizations and 50,000 pneumonia deaths per year, you want to see a comparable number of "cases" in the same amount of time?

What's your wager?

 

[Raz'r]

Wrong. The survival rate = 100 - mortality rate.

Before using The Lancet study, the current survival rate is 100 - (21,000/533,000) = 96.1%. But even the common number is 99.33%,

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/health/coronavirus-lower-death-rate/index.html 

And then using The Lancet study, IIRC with 86% infections unconfirmed, it's closer to 100 - (21,000/(533,000/0.14)) = 99.5%. If you use the April increase in deaths to scale the likely infections, it's closer to 99.8%.

Why do you continue to ignore that there is a time lag between infection and death, and that we’re in the exponential growth curve of the infections? If you looked at infections from day 1 to a month ago, and deaths to now, I’d be more inclined to think you had a shred of decency left. Instead you keep lying, hiding behind math. Ohh, math! I’m so impressed!

 

[mikewof]

Every time I see "TDS" I read it as "total dissolved solids".

Yeah, what else does it mean?

It goes along with PPM, parts per million.

 

[mikewof]

Why do you continue to ignore that there is a time lag between infection and death, and that we’re in the exponential growth curve of the infections? If you looked at infections from day 1 to a month ago, and deaths to now, I’d be more inclined to think you had a shred of decency left. Instead you keep lying, hiding behind math. Ohh, math! I’m so impressed!

Maybe history will prove you correct, but so far, it's in pneumonia territory.

Maybe you can be like Gator and pray to the CoronaGod for more deaths to make your point.

 

[Raz'r]

Most doctors know how to read a simple CDC chart. You and VHM, not so much.

I seem smart to you the way a the guy who throws the stick seems smart to the Labrador Retriever.

Delusions of grandeur, extreme confidence in his own (erroneous) ideals.

either he’s climbing mount stupid, or he’s off his meds.

Any of this sound familiar?

Med times:

However, a delusion of grandeur is more than just very high self-esteem or an inflated sense of self-importance. It marks a significant disconnection from the real world. A person with delusions of grandeur may continue to believe in the delusion in spite of contradictory evidence.



 




 



Types
Delusions of grandeur come in many forms. Many people experience delusions of a similar theme over time.

Delusions of grandeur can manifest in virtually limitless ways. Some of the most common types include:

• an inflated belief in one’s own importance, such as having the power to end war
  
• a belief that one is famous or occupies a high position in society
  
• a belief that one is a religious leader
  
• a belief in one’s ability to live forever
  
• a false belief that one cannot be harmed by disease or injury
  
• an inflated sense of intelligence
  
• a belief that one possesses magical skills, such as the ability to read minds
  

 

[roundthebuoys]

With over 2 million pneumonia infections, 1 million pneumonia hospitalizations and 50,000 pneumonia deaths per year, you want to see a comparable number of "cases" in the same amount of time?

What's your wager?

Great, show me the 1 month where the cases went from 1000 to 530,000.  Any month will do.

 

[mikewof]

Kinds depends. Some pathogens, ebola for example, can spread post-mortem just fine.

CoviD-19 kills the alveolar cells in your lungs, the tiny air sacs that exchange O for CO2 from the blood. You spread it by exhaling the reproduced virus in exhaling or coughing. When it first starts, you barely notice, you have millions of lung cells. Then after a few days, and getting short of breath, you start to feel bad, but are exhaling virus more than ever. By this point, your immune system is starting to ramp up and the race is on, will you run out of lung cells, or will your own immune system drown you? But it's in the virus best interest to keep you exhaling virus as long as possible. Since that process can continue until you don't have any more lung cells, why should the virus care?

Of course the virus doesn't have emotions, it doesn't "care," really. But I mean, why should your death affect the mechanism of how the virus reproduces maximally? Some viruses, it definitely makes a difference, it is against the viruses best interest to kill the host. But I don't think that's true for this one.

- DSK

Do you have a reference on that bit in bold? In a healthy person (i.e. without a coinfection) coronaviruses and rhinoviruses are upper and mid respiratory infections, the heat and sheer stress in the alveolar region favors the much smaller bacterial infections, around 1 micron. A coronavirus or rhinovirus infected cell is about 10 microns. It's like comparing a ball bearing to a beach ball.