Restarting America Means People Will Die. So When Should We Do It?

[roundthebuoys]

Usually Gen X'rs keep to themselves and laugh at the whole boomer v. Gen Z meme war, while going about our business.  Verbose faux scientists write lots of words.

 

[mikewof]

I'm a little confused as to why there is still this large argument about data. It really does seem that everyone is converging on a mortality rate of around 1.5%, assuming that there is adequate medical care availiable.

For a supporting cite, again I recommend looking at Australia, where there have been 350 000 negative tests, and about 6500 positive tests. There is also a good to excellent contact tracing in place. I suggest that if there was a massive undiagnosed infection rate, then with 350 000 tests, some of those infections would have been found by chance - and pretty much they have not been. Vast majority of infections have been found to have been linked to a known previous infection.

As of today, we have 61 deaths. Taking the rough metric of 15 days from infection to death, we see that there were around 4000 infections 15 days ago. Which works out right about 1.5%. Which is pretty much where it was when I looked at the same data for AU a week or so back. And I'm pretty sure it'll be similar if I look in another week or so.

So - we have a couple of pieces of information now.

1. Covid 19 is highly infectious. Unchecked it runs in the R2.5 + range. 

2. With social distancing and shutting down society a heap we can push the infection rate under 1:1

3. With sufficient medical capacity we can keep the mortality rate in the 1.5% range

4. If the medical capacity of an area is exceeded, mortality rate can shoot upwards above the 5% range. (higher where there are more co-morbidity factors).

What are the options?

 - let 'er rip. Mortality definately above 1.5%, possibly 5%+ . Most impacted is the older, richer cohort.

 - stay shut down completely. Economy tanks, end game is mass unemployment and poverty. Most impacted is poorer and younger folks without assets.

- accept 1.5% and work backwards from medical capacity. If 5% need treatment, and you have 1000 hospital beds, then you can run at 20 000 active infections. Balance social distancing and economic / society activity so you sit a bit under 20 000 active infections.

Each of the three options gets terminated with either herd immunity, or the hail mary of a vaccine.

UK tried the first, then got scared. NZ seem to be trying the second. AU looks to be trying the third, with a tendancy towards the second. USA? Perhaps started with the first and currently aiming for the third?

I'm waiting to see if any government is brave enough to admit that they are trying to manage to a 1.5% death rate until such time as a vaccine comes along.

That whole discussion came up here because I posted the CDC data that suggests that the 25,000 some SARS-CoV-2 deaths seem to have been poached from our regular tally of 60,000-some pneumonia deaths. The CDC data shows a sudden and violent drop off of pneumonia deaths, almost is if all the people who normally die of pneumonia are now dying of SARS-CoV-2 coinfection.

So Bristol, and Steam and a few others said something to the effect of "The CDC just said that they underestimated the number of deaths and infections, so you can't trust that CDC data that shows a swap of pneumonia deaths for Virus Boogeyman Deaths."

I responded with "okay, I'm open to that, so they're now trending toward The Lancet paper which shows that infections are ony only being reflected in some 14% of the population due to lack of measurement. If The Lancet paper is correct on this, then it raises the survival rate from about 98.5% up to about 99.8%, with a corresponding mortality rate of about 0.2%

There will not be a long-term vaccination against any coronavirus or rhinovirus. It will be a seasonal booster, like the flu. Rhinoviruses and coronaviruses cannot be effectively inoculated against because they mutate quickly and they have too many strains.

 

[mikewof]

Usually Gen X'rs keep to themselves and laugh at the whole boomer v. Gen Z meme war, while going about our business.  Verbose faux scientists write lots of words.

There is not a significant Boomer vs. Gen Z war. The meme war is between Boomers and Millennials. The Millennials are the Boomer's kids.

The Gen-Z are the children of us Boomers, for the most part. And all this time, they kept telling themselves that it was their parents that were going to ruin their lives, with our Punk Rock DIY ways, launching Global Ozone Rubber Participant studies. And it turns out, we wanted the best for our little Gen-X knockoff Zers. It was the evil, evil Boomers that sacrificed that generation, sucked the blood from their necks to feed their Millennial broods.

The Millennials won't pay for this bill. They are hiding under the shirtsleeves of their Boomer parents. It will be the Zers. Who pay. But now it's up to us Xers to protect our Zers from them Boomers. We need to recreate the post-lockdown economy to something better than it was before.

When the NHL lockout finally happened, what emerged from that rubble was the single greatest equity system in the history of professional sports, the Dead Nuts Money Salary Cap. And since that glorious day, any NHL team can and does bean any other NHL team on any given day. Even Gator's Lightning have risen to the top. And if that doesn't attest to the grace and beauty of the Dead Nuts Money Salary Cap, then nothing else will ... we need a Post Lockdown Mission Impossible Secret Escape Hatch for these Zers. They deserve not to be victimized by these heartless, zombie-infected Boomers. They're good kids.

Oh, and the words are not for you. You're too stupid to understand any of them. Show us some tits.

 

[mikewof]

The ability of certain people to deep dive on google while misunderstanding whatever they are reading is frequently a really unfortunate trait.  

Like the mumbling geezer on the next bar stool over, it is best to just ignore them.  

Look who's talking. You don't know shit about kayaking the East River. You've never even done it based on what you wrote.

You've probably never even seen it from the shore. Did you just look it up on Google Earth? Boomer Poseur, you.

 

[Left Shift]

To my detriment I try to get the old geezer to buy a drink first just to amuse him and myself.  But yeah, bloviating verbose cunts are just cunts.  It's been PA from the beginning I suppose.

Last time I tried that was in Salzburg many years ago.  Turns out the old guy was trying to brag about his years in the Waffen SS and wanted to impress the american kid next to him.  Cured me forever of talking to old geezers on bar stools.

 

[mikewof]

Remember when some verbose faux scientist wrote too many words that meant nothing?  I think he was new here.

Whatever Boomer, you changed your name.

You're too boring for me to want to know whatever it is that you used to call yourself. I'm sure that whomever you were before you became "roundthebuoys" was just as boring as your current incarnation instant breakfast.

You should be glad that I'm too busy to drink right now, or I would rip you a lyrical volley that would drop you six feet below center.

 

[Raz'r]

There is not a significant Boomer vs. Gen Z war. The meme war is between Boomers and Millennials. The Millennials are the Boomer's kids.

The Gen-Z are the children of us Boomers, for the most part. And all this time, they kept telling themselves that it was their parents that were going to ruin their lives, with our Punk Rock DIY ways, launching Global Ozone Rubber Participant studies. And it turns out, we wanted the best for our little Gen-X knockoff Zers. It was the evil, evil Boomers that sacrificed that generation, sucked the blood from their necks to feed their Millennial broods.

The Millennials won't pay for this bill. They are hiding under the shirtsleeves of their Boomer parents. It will be the Zers. Who pay. But now it's up to us Xers to protect our Zers from them Boomers. We need to recreate the post-lockdown economy to something better than it was before.

When the NHL lockout finally happened, what emerged from that rubble was the single greatest equity system in the history of professional sports, the Dead Nuts Money Salary Cap. And since that glorious day, any NHL team can and does bean any other NHL team on any given day. Even Gator's Lightning have risen to the top. And if that doesn't attest to the grace and beauty of the Dead Nuts Money Salary Cap, then nothing else will ... we need a Post Lockdown Mission Impossible Secret Escape Hatch for these Zers. They deserve not to be victimized by these heartless, zombie-infected Boomers. They're good kids.

Oh, and the words are not for you. You're too stupid to understand any of them. Show us some tits.

Delusions mixed with PUI

 

[Rain Man]

Can we put some actual content in the thread?  All I see is this and a few posts from people who should be seeing what I am seeing.

 

[roundthebuoys]

There is not a significant Boomer vs. Gen Z war. The meme war is between Boomers and Millennials. The Millennials are the Boomer's kids.

The Gen-Z are the children of us Boomers, for the most part. And all this time, they kept telling themselves that it was their parents that were going to ruin their lives, with our Punk Rock DIY ways, launching Global Ozone Rubber Participant studies. And it turns out, we wanted the best for our little Gen-X knockoff Zers. It was the evil, evil Boomers that sacrificed that generation, sucked the blood from their necks to feed their Millennial broods.

I'm trying really hard here Ringo.  Are you fucking serious that Gen Z are the children of Baby Boomers?  Were Gen X created in a petri dish?   Who's parents are millennials??  What are my kids then, I'm Gen X?  "Us boomers" and punk rock and our "punk rock DIY ways"!  Gen X is literally a Punk Rock band.   Are you fucking kidding me?  Do you get anything right, ever??  You are a mess.

 

[roundthebuoys]

Whatever Boomer, you changed your name.

You're too boring for me to want to know whatever it is that you used to call yourself. I'm sure that whomever you were before you became "roundthebuoys" was just as boring as your current incarnation instant breakfast.

You should be glad that I'm too busy to drink right now, or I would rip you a lyrical volley that would drop you six feet below center.

LOLOLOL!!! I changed my name to be here 4 years before you were??  Holy fuck.

 

[roundthebuoys]

Sorry everyone.  Jesus, you take some time off and come back to this.  Where's CarlD when you need him?  

 

[Lark]

@Rain Man wants discussion instead of Melodrama.

Can we treat it any better then we could in March?    We have more gloves and stuff being produced at least.   I’m sure a few refinements have been made.

Can we test for it quickly and inexpensively?    Will government pay, or are we relying on people volunteering their money every day or two to see if they are forbidden to work or play?

Do we know what aspects of social distancing and personal protection worked?   Every state and EU nation tried something different.   Can anybody see a pattern?    It looks like Texas and Georgia did better then Michigan.  The Bahamas were about even with Ohio.  Sweden did better then Southern Europe.  (Fatalities per million).

Can a phone app tell if I’m in the car with you, or just sitting next to your car in traffic? 

If we aren’t any smarter then we were four weeks ago, what will be different when we relax?   We crashed the economy, stopped the whole world from being NY City or Northern Italy in April, but never had a plan for May or July.   

Edit.   The only thing I consistently saw was shut downs helped stop an escalation.   It worked well if started early.   We need to put the equipment in trucks, restart the world, test sick people every time they go to urgent care or the doctor (for free) and shut down areas as they flair up.   Ship the  equipment to the fire,   Only one or two states will be shut down at any given moment, the Wack a Mole theory of Pandemic management.   

May as well wear masks, just to annoy Mikey.

 

[Greever]

See, aren't you now wishing you had kept your SCAR for your Oregon ranch to ward of the imminent wave of infected zombies??

Hah! 

Like he ever got rid of it...

 

[mikewof]

I'm trying really hard here Ringo.  Are you fucking serious that Gen Z are the children of Baby Boomers?  Were Gen X created in a petri dish?   Who's parents are millennials??  What are my kids then, I'm Gen X?  "Us boomers" and punk rock and our "punk rock DIY ways"!  Gen X is literally a Punk Rock band.   Are you fucking kidding me?  Do you get anything right, ever??  You are a mess.

I missed some punctuation, apologies. Gen-Z are the children of us, the Gen-Xers. The Millennials are the children of the Boomers.

Gen-X's parents were some Boomers but also a lot of Silent Generation folks. I'm an X, parents were Silents. Most of my X friends has Silent Gen parents. A few were spawned from Boomers, and their hellseed led them to drink lots of Moosehead and save their Copenhagen chew spits in giant vats which they kept next to their Chevy Novas.

So lessee ... you say that your Gen-X, then your kids are likely Gen-Z. Unless you had them fairly young and gave birth to some Millennials, in your coked-up, shag carpeting, stripper mom-supported degenerate lifestyle.

I don't know your well enough or care sufficiently to try to figure that one out.

 

[mikewof]

@Rain Man wants discussion instead of Melodrama.

May as well wear masks, just to annoy Mikey.

I'm okay if you wear the mask, in fact I encourage it for you Boomers. It will make it easier for my generation to support the government if there are fewer of you to drain off the Social Security and Medicare funds.

Please Boomers, wear masks.

 

[mikewof]

LOLOLOL!!! I changed my name to be here 4 years before you were??  Holy fuck.

Wow. Apologies then. So you have been that long under the same name "roundthebuoys"? I never even noticed you until a couple days ago. And your name is actually kind of memorable.

So a question for you, if you don't mind ... How milquetoast of a person does someone like you have to be if you've been rattling around this shithole for going on two freaking decades and I've never even noticed your existence until now? Are you something of a "Personality Ninja"?

Either I'm suffering from early dementia, or you are in fact the single most invisible person here. Have you and I ever interacted in any way before this? Anyway, why have you suddenly decided to start being mildly interesting? What happened to you, did you get hit in the head with a beach ball or get stung by the first bumblebee of the season and decide to be 180-degrees opposite of the invisible person you were before?

 

[Cal20sailor]

I'm voting early dementia.  You seem to be getting worse with time.  

 

[mikewof]

View attachment 357476

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Can we put some actual content in the thread?  All I see is this and a few posts from people who should be seeing what I am seeing.

Given that you have nothing of value to add and nothing of value to say, it looks like all you can contribute is a list of who you are too stupid to understand.

So to answer your question, yes we can get some actual content in this thread, but no, it obviously isn't coming from your unimportant, ignorable self.

 

[Se7en]

This research suggests that the morality rate is closer to 0.01%, 

http://www.research-in-germany.org/news/2020/4/2020-04-07_COVID-19__on_average_only_6__of_actual_SARS-CoV-2_infections_detected_worldwide.html

BTW - that isn't research, it's an acticle about research.

And the research being written about in the article does not suggest a mortality rate around 0.01%, it rather starts with that mortality rate as an assumption, an estimate, or a wild arsed guess if you like.

It uses that mortality rate to hypothesise that, if the mortality rate is accurate, then the infection rate must be much higher than it currently is.

You are then using the assumption of higher infection rate to hypothesise a lower than reported mortality rate. 

It's pure circular logic starting from an unsupported assumption. And as I have pointed out a few times, countries with high levels of testing are showing the hypothesis to be wrong.

Again - more and more data, and studies from that data, are converging on a 1.5% mortality rate.

Yes - the points about overall death rates from all causes dropping are valid. Seems staying home isolated limits the spread of other diseases, plus drops the accident rate as well. Who would have guessed?

 

[Rain Man]

@Rain Man wants discussion instead of Melodrama.

Can we treat it any better then we could in March?    We have more gloves and stuff being produced at least.   I’m sure a few refinements have been made.

Can we test for it quickly and inexpensively?    Will government pay, or are we relying on people volunteering their money every day or two to see if they are forbidden to work or play?

Do we know what aspects of social distancing and personal protection worked?   Every state and EU nation tried something different.   Can anybody see a pattern?    It looks like Texas and Georgia did better then Michigan.  The Bahamas were about even with Ohio.  Sweden did better then Southern Europe.  (Fatalities per million).

Can a phone app tell if I’m in the car with you, or just sitting next to your car in traffic? 

If we aren’t any smarter then we were four weeks ago, what will be different when we relax?   We crashed the economy, stopped the whole world from being NY City or Northern Italy in April, but never had a plan for May or July.   

Edit.   The only thing I consistently saw was shut downs helped stop an escalation.   It worked well if started early.   We need to put the equipment in trucks, restart the world, test sick people every time they go to urgent care or the doctor (for free) and shut down areas as they flair up.   Ship the  equipment to the fire,   Only one or two states will be shut down at any given moment, the Wack a Mole theory of Pandemic management.   

May as well wear masks, just to annoy Mikey.

I think the key to startup is pervasive, rapid testing.  Fast and cheap enough that when you get up in the morning you can test yourself and see if you are good for the day.

Also, we need to get to the bottom of why people who have recovered are continuing to test positive. 

If we can't figure out who is contagious and who isn't, we can't start up again without triggering flare-ups.  We'll have to wait for a vaccine.