Restarting America Means People Will Die. So When Should We Do It?

AJ Oliver

Super Anarchist
12,894
1,805
Sandusky Sailing Club
From everything I've read, I showed minimal affects.  No significant respiratory or coughing issues.  Several days of bad fever and associated aches.  For me, just a bad case of the flu. 
Hang in the Mr. Cal - and thanks for the kind word PM a few days ago. 

In a couple of months I'd like to invite you down to Sandusky for a cook-out and a sail on our awesome Bay. 

Bring the GF too 

 

Grrr...

▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰ 100%
9,941
2,439
Detroit
Respectfully disagree - periodic random sampling can tell us what we need to know. 

So fa, doing it are Iceland, Norway, Finland, Ohio, Germany that I know of . .  

It is a total no-brainer. 

For Jeebus & Gawd's sake, even the Naional Review gets it. 
There are some problems with that.  There is no 100% way to verify you are virus free.  They are finding people who have had it and recovered are also testing positive again weeks later.  They may also be carriers.

Once people are coming into contact again it will begin transmitting again regardless of what we do. Of course, I'm just guessing.

 

badlatitude

Super Anarchist
30,235
5,502
Damnit (the LA thing)
The hard fact of life is that we cannot stay bunkered until they come up with a vaccine. It isn't feasible economically, medically, or socially. We need to have a national discussion about this, a rational plan with benefits and cost. Otherwise, there will be chaos.

 

AJ Oliver

Super Anarchist
12,894
1,805
Sandusky Sailing Club
There are some problems with that.  There is no 100% way to verify you are virus free.  They are finding people who have had it and recovered are also testing positive again weeks later.  They may also be carriers.
That is why you repeat the random samples periodically. 

Otherwise, if you lift the lockdown thinking the infection rate is low, you could very easily be wrong. 

Seriously, those social Sci guys are very good at drawing a representative sample of populations 

Generally they do it to manipulate your vote  . .

 

ShortForBob

Super Anarchist
34,882
2,776
Melbourne
Round two?


South Korea says recovered patients testing positive again


South Korean officials report 91 patients thought to have recovered from the new coronavirus have tested positive again.

Jeong Eun-kyeong, director of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), told a briefing the virus may have been "reactivated" rather than the patients being reinfected.

South Korean health officials said it remained unclear what caused the second round of infections, with epidemiological investigations still underway.

PHOTO: South Korean health officials said it remained unclear what caused the second round of infections. (Reuters: Kim Kyung-hoon)
The prospect of people being reinfected with the virus is of international concern, as many countries are hoping infected populations will develop sufficient immunity to prevent a resurgence of the pandemic.

Kim Woo-joo, professor of infectious diseases at Korea University Guro Hospital, also said patients had likely "relapsed" rather than been reinfected.

"The number will only increase, 91 is just the beginning now," he said.

False test results could also be at fault, other experts said, or remnants of the virus could still be in patients' systems but not be infectious or of danger to the host or others.

South Korea had recorded 10,450 confirmed cases as of Saturday morning, according to Johns Hopkins University, with 208 deaths.

More than 7,100 South Koreans were believed to have recovered from COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus.

 

Mid

Blues Rule
look at the big picture , aka globally .

we either learn real quick that it really is a global village and we all depend on each other  or sections will need to hermetically seal .

 

mikewof

mikewof
45,639
1,209
Hey, I assume you did not in fact get Coronavirus?  Good news.  We don’t need to be losing good posters. Malarkey, Mikey and Bravo Bravo are a different story..
Wishing misfortune on others is a sign of emotional illness, in my opinion.

Seek help.

 

Raz'r

Super Anarchist
62,194
5,442
De Nile
Speaking of testing, Brother, SIL and 2 adult children have all the signs. Fortunately not too I’ll, fever and cough. Minneapolis suburbs. Nephew went in for a check as he had pneumonia a few month back. X-ray yes given history. virus test? No. Not sick enough. 
no test, no problem!

eh Mikey?

 

Sol Rosenberg

Girthy Member
94,116
11,676
Earth
Round two?


South Korea says recovered patients testing positive again


South Korean officials report 91 patients thought to have recovered from the new coronavirus have tested positive again.

Jeong Eun-kyeong, director of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), told a briefing the virus may have been "reactivated" rather than the patients being reinfected.

South Korean health officials said it remained unclear what caused the second round of infections, with epidemiological investigations still underway.

PHOTO: South Korean health officials said it remained unclear what caused the second round of infections. (Reuters: Kim Kyung-hoon)
The prospect of people being reinfected with the virus is of international concern, as many countries are hoping infected populations will develop sufficient immunity to prevent a resurgence of the pandemic.

Kim Woo-joo, professor of infectious diseases at Korea University Guro Hospital, also said patients had likely "relapsed" rather than been reinfected.

"The number will only increase, 91 is just the beginning now," he said.

False test results could also be at fault, other experts said, or remnants of the virus could still be in patients' systems but not be infectious or of danger to the host or others.

South Korea had recorded 10,450 confirmed cases as of Saturday morning, according to Johns Hopkins University, with 208 deaths.

More than 7,100 South Koreans were believed to have recovered from COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus.
Wait until the illiterati hear that. Holy Easter and take the communion, Batman!

 

ShortForBob

Super Anarchist
34,882
2,776
Melbourne
Speaking of testing, Brother, SIL and 2 adult children have all the signs. Fortunately not too I’ll, fever and cough. Minneapolis suburbs. Nephew went in for a check as he had pneumonia a few month back. X-ray yes given history. virus test? No. Not sick enough. 
no test, no problem!

eh Mikey?
I don't understand this. Countries who are successfully containing/surpressing this are testing something like 14,000 people per million or more. They got the tests from somewhere.

The Usa is further behind the curve and testing half that and the Press let him get away with bragging meaningless numbers.

Surely even the Elk are not stupid enough to believe his simplistic half truths.

You have more cases than China, even if one accepts your population as 10x most other countries, your infection rate is more like 50x everywhere. most countries deaths are under 1000.

Trump's glibly stated that 100,000 deaths would be a good result. Where's the riots?

Has he got the country hypnotized?

 

Dog

Super Anarchist
37,940
442
What bothers me is that Trump is discouraging testing. We can't really move forward until we can safely mix again. The only thing that I can come up with for this reticence, is his fear of a large number of deaths that would affect his approval rating. If we don't test, and start the economy too early, it will be like we did nothing about this at all.
Relax..If you believe Trump is discouraging testing it's because you've been duped. He is in fact bragging about doing the most testing, we have the best tests, nobody tests like we test.

 

BeSafe

Super Anarchist
7,975
1,286
The hard fact of life is that we cannot stay bunkered until they come up with a vaccine. It isn't feasible economically, medically, or socially. We need to have a national discussion about this, a rational plan with benefits and cost.
As much as I agree with the concept, I don't think it's possible to have a rational national discussion.  I don't think there's an appetite for a rational discussion on this board, let alone the greater public.   Simply put, 'rational' means you have to be able to apply some sort of value judgement (qualitative, if not quantitative) on human life, and that's just beyond what can be discussed in America.

I think we're going to emotionally lurch back and forth between societal guard rails until there are treatments/vaccines that get the severity of infection under what can be handled in local hospitals.  And then COVID becomes the flu, or diabetes, or drug overdoses, or other 'acceptable' morbidity risks and people put it out of their minds and watch football and fireworks and sail on a beautiful summer afternoon again.

Now the stuff that's going to get me in trouble - the same personality features of Trump that made him pretty awful going into the COVID crisis are actually going to play fairly well coming the other side.  I know people don't want to hear that.  Trump is an emotionally driven pitchman who 'reads the crowd'.   He shut everything down (late)  and he's probably going to open things up (early) because the majority of Americans aren't really that rational.  We want what we want, not based on "reason" or logic.  Yea.. 'This feels like it's been long enough..."  And Trump caters to it.

And unlike most politicians, he doesn't mind changing direction.  For 99% of politicians in democratic governments, the idea of shutting down, then reopening, then shutting down again is terrifying.  They could be wrong and 'blood will be on their hands'!  Trump won't give a shit.  He'll mouth the words about ** most important decision of my presidency **  but he doesn't believe that.  He's reading the crowd.  He'll keep the quarantine in place until a majority push back.. he's a populist through and through.  Then he'll reopen.  And if it goes badly and people start getting angsty, he'll requarantine.  There is no logic to a populist.  It's mob rule.

I can tell you that the business folks I deal with are planning on May 18th as the day the national quarantine guidance is lifted.  That's essentially the end of the '6-8 weeks' initial estimate.

EDIT _ BTW, by 'quarantine guidance lifted' I mean an expansion is the definition of "critical."  Places like barber shops and TJ MAXX will reopen.  I think some restaurants may reopen with isolated seating for example.  They will have limited access, 6' boundaries, masks, etc.  There won't be professional conferences, sporting events, concerts, or major gatherings for the rest of this year IMHO. 

 
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Saorsa

Super Anarchist
36,796
422
From New York Times Magazine today. A very interesting read, especially after President Trump, said that he can override the Governors and that "I have great authority if I want to use it." He doesn't have that authority, but it is indicative of problems on the horizon.

"The politics of the coronavirus have made it seem indecent to talk about the future. As President Trump has flirted with reopening America quickly — saying in late March that he’d like to see “packed churches” on Easter and returning to the theme days ago with “we cannot let this continue” — public-health experts have felt compelled to call out the dangers. Many Americans have responded by rejecting as monstrous the whole idea of any trade-off between saving lives and saving the economy. And in the near term, it’s true that those two goals align: For the sake of both, it’s imperative to keep businesses shuttered and people in their homes as much as possible.

In the longer run, though, it’s important to acknowledge that a trade-off will emerge — and become more urgent in the coming months, as the economy slides deeper into recession. The staggering toll of unemployment has reached more than 16 million in just the last three weeks. There will be difficult compromises between doing everything possible to save lives from Covid-19 and preventing other life-threatening, or -altering, harms.

When can we ethically bring people back to work and school and begin to resume the usual rhythms of American life? We brought together by video conference five different kinds of experts to talk about the principles and values that will determine the choices we make at that future point. One of them, the bioethicist Zeke Emanuel, led a group from the Center for American Progress that earlier this month presented a plan to end the coronavirus crisis. First, the group said, the country needs a national stay-at-home policy through mid-May. (Eight governors still haven’t issued such orders statewide.) In the intervening weeks, testing would have to ramp up to test everyone who has a fever, or lives with someone who tests positive for Covid-19. Contact-tracing — identifying and notifying people who have been in proximity to someone infected — would become comprehensive. People who have the virus or a fever, or those in proximity to them, would be isolated. There would also be testing of a representative sample in every county, to determine the rate of infection in the population, as well as mapping and alerts to inform the public about the location of Covid-19 cases.

If these efforts are successfully put in place, Emanuel hopes the current restrictions could begin to ease in June. At that point — or later, if the necessary steps have not been taken — we will need to rethink how we manage risk, recognizing trade-offs among various harms and benefits. That’s what the panel discussed."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/magazine/coronavirus-economy-debate.html
Trump can over-ride the governors to some degree but there is no national police force to enforce anything he says.

The governors can over-ride mayors and mayors can demand laws.  Neither of them have enough police to enforce much.

That drops it down to the next level of government, the people.  Social pressure can be applied but there are those who willfully elect to ignore that and actually take some pride in it.

As individuals though we can take action.  So far, social distancing and isolation seem to be effective as is wearing masks.  Prophylaxis is going to be a way of life for at least the next two years.  It's always worked for Flu season but we still lose lives.

So, what politicians say won't matter much to me.  I won't be hitting  a sports bar for a big game or the local Irish pub on St. Patrick's day or any other crowded location.  I don't do churches and religion so that's not a problem.  I hope I'll be able to find a decent restaurant that doesn't try to pack as many tables as possible into the available space. 

A lot of large venues like stadiums, arenas, churches and the Kennedy Center need to be mothballed indefinitely right now.  I don't see them coming back on line for a couple of years.

That said, somebody has to be developing some measure of the effects of the disease on the population.  We simply do not have valid figures or models right now.  That will become the function of normal healthcare testing once we determine which of the many tests currently under development are best and determining exposure, infection and immunity.  Eventually there will be a vaccine with some measure of effectiveness.  LIke SARS, MERS and HIV, it is not likely that there will be an effective cure, just a way to live with the disease.

It looks like a new culture will develop and from that a new society.  That will come from the people, not the politicians.

 
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