Restarting America Means People Will Die. So When Should We Do It?

Gissie

Super Anarchist
6,392
1,667
I was thinking specifically of the Florida-Georgia line. Along much of it, any effective ditch will be an alligator moat. And all your objections apply even more to walls

That said, I think trying to close state borders is not a good idea.

- DSK
I think it would be a great idea. Look at what happened during prohibition, the boys made some seriously jotted up cars. Imagine what they could do these days.

Then in a few decades they will make TV series about them. :D

 

Lark

Supper Anarchist
9,107
1,463
Ohio
I was thinking specifically of the Florida-Georgia line. Along much of it, any effective ditch will be an alligator moat. And all your objections apply even more to walls

That said, I think trying to close state borders is not a good idea.

- DSK
I forgot about the your gators.   Around here the worst a swamp will do is suck your boot off and leave you walking in your wet socks (ignoring mosquito born diseases).   Even our rattlesnakes are shy creatures, almost as polite as a Canadian.    

 

Gissie

Super Anarchist
6,392
1,667
Gosh, when you put it that way..... I can see, what, a fitness and literacy test?  And after the collapse of business having to do with the aged, crippled and infirm, (even the young crippled and infirm, given your logic)  everything would be hunky dory!  Think of all the sailboats just sitting there-  wouldn’t need to build a new one for decades!  Maybe ever!  :)
 

New Gissie Sparta! A concept whose time has come!  Death Panels as a civic duty!  
Is it a problem in your general life having such a closed mind?

The question was what would happen to the economy if millions died. My opinion is it would boom due to it being mainly the old and sick, thus freeing up vast amounts of cash and assets for a younger generation. Your opinion I presume is different. Do you think these deaths in the probable age group would destroy the economy?

As for the collapse of an industry that relies on treating the old and infirm as an asset to be kept alive and milked for as much as possible, the sooner we get rid of it the better. Unfortunately the companies making the money have a powerful lobby to keep denying us a right to chose. Again you disagree and condone such treatment of the helpless, plus the lack of choice.

To then take my comments and claim I support the killing of those in the older age group at risk, that is just twisted logic. You even suggest I support death panels. I can only assume you do this so you don't have to actually read, comprehend and consider anything that may question your narrow beliefs. I am sorry for you that your parents, teachers, or just life, left you so closed and blinkered.

 
A

Amati

Guest
Is it a problem in your general life having such a closed mind?

The question was what would happen to the economy if millions died. My opinion is it would boom due to it being mainly the old and sick, thus freeing up vast amounts of cash and assets for a younger generation. Your opinion I presume is different. Do you think these deaths in the probable age group would destroy the economy?

As for the collapse of an industry that relies on treating the old and infirm as an asset to be kept alive and milked for as much as possible, the sooner we get rid of it the better. Unfortunately the companies making the money have a powerful lobby to keep denying us a right to chose. Again you disagree and condone such treatment of the helpless, plus the lack of choice.

To then take my comments and claim I support the killing of those in the older age group at risk, that is just twisted logic. You even suggest I support death panels. I can only assume you do this so you don't have to actually read, comprehend and consider anything that may question your narrow beliefs. I am sorry for you that your parents, teachers, or just life, left you so closed and blinkered.
How old are you?

https://www.sailingscuttlebutt.com/2015/04/03/what-americas-changing-demographics-mean-for-boating/

do you own a sailboat?

 
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mikewof

mikewof
43,884
977
astro said:
Nuh, I nailed it.

You are a product of the times, some journalistic experience and some science, the combination is perfect for the denial industry, keyboard for hire, subject irrelevant.  Troll for hire.

Tell us more about how "Trump is more Liberal than Clinton."

then tell us more about how the COVID-19 is less deadly than the flu.

You didn't have one word of complaint last year when the pneumonia killed more than that. And now, suddenly, you're an activist?

 

mikewof

mikewof
43,884
977
Where did I say anything about the CDC?  I just think you're acting crazy.  Do a little self-reflection and ask yourself if this is healthy.  Id recommend a week off to reset which is what I have done when I started to take this place seriously.  Despite your comments about my generation, I wish you no harm but it's obvious to me that for you, being on this site is self-destructive.  Very much a layman's opinion.
Crazy? I pointed out, as shown by the CDC data that there are now fewer deaths per thousand than at any point in American history.

I apologize for blaming your generation for this, I guess the Boomers -- in addition to crashing the global economy twice -- also do not have a sense of humor about their locust-like abilities.

I'll tell you what, on behalf of Gen-X, you can blame the whole mess on us. You were probably going to do that anyway, so this just makes it official.

 

mikewof

mikewof
43,884
977
astro said:
You see it wasn't just me who did not complain, but the rest of the world wasn't phased either.  Strange hey?

But I have learned that you can't hold an intelligent conversation with a climate change denier.

You are a shill Mikey, you are posting this material here and elsewhere because those who pay you want the revenue to keep flowing from poor people's bank accounts the rich people's bank accounts.  What you are paid is chicken feed and a great investment.

They fund university incubators is right wing states to recruit people like you, states like ... well ... Alabama?


I've learned a long, long time ago, from megachurch preachers to to shady politicians ... the ones doing the most accusing are the ones with the most to hide.

I don't want to know your name, I don't want to know where you live, I don't want to know what you do for a living, I don't want to know anything about you, because I'm quite sure that there are some really yucky things in your life for you to be this into stalking someone on the internet.

To quote JBSF when he ran across yet another stalker here ... "creeeee-py."

 
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MR.CLEAN

Moderator
45,215
3,812
Not here
Clean, i think you confuse the white collar world of suits shuffling virtual paper across the net with the real world where people make and do things.  
I hear ya lark, but let's try a hypo:

It's August, we've lost 100,000 people, several hundred thousand people have long term effects, the economy has been ravaged, but the curve is flat everywhere and many states have had zero new cases for a few weeks.  Those states are going to be FIERCELY protective of their health by that point.

Now imagine Trump fires Fauci because of some interview, bringing on his personal doctor or some other pick that would only make sense in an alternate universe, allowing Trump to loudly tell everyone "IT'S TIME TO START THE ECONOMY UP!!"   Say 45 of the states don't answer the door, Trump starts to lose his shit, and WV's governor, looking for a chance to make it to the big time,  comes up with a great idea to celebrate the reopening with a huge event at Laidley Field, inviting tens of thousands for a free party.  Because it's WV, they'll fill that place up and create a contagion bomb.  

3 weeks later, 10,000 Charleston residents have the CV, with another 500 showing up every day,  and thousands are fleeing the area for the disease-free mecca of Ohio.  

Pretend that hypothetical is real. What does DeWine do with the OSP and the Guard in that real life situation?

 

Lark

Supper Anarchist
9,107
1,463
Ohio
I hear ya lark, but let's try a hypo:

It's August, we've lost 100,000 people, several hundred thousand people have long term effects, the economy has been ravaged, but the curve is flat everywhere and many states have had zero new cases for a few weeks.  Those states are going to be FIERCELY protective of their health by that point.

Now imagine Trump fires Fauci because of some interview, bringing on his personal doctor or some other pick that would only make sense in an alternate universe, allowing Trump to loudly tell everyone "IT'S TIME TO START THE ECONOMY UP!!"   Say 45 of the states don't answer the door, Trump starts to lose his shit, and WV's governor, looking for a chance to make it to the big time,  comes up with a great idea to celebrate the reopening with a huge event at Laidley Field, inviting tens of thousands for a free party.  Because it's WV, they'll fill that place up and create a contagion bomb.  

3 weeks later, 10,000 Charleston residents have the CV, with another 500 showing up every day,  and thousands are fleeing the area for the disease-free mecca of Ohio.  

Pretend that hypothetical is real. What does DeWine do with the OSP and the Guard in that real life situation?
I actually acknowledge the desire.   Good leaders want to protect their people.   The rest want to look important.   My argument is not that the governor wouldn’t try if it got as scary as you suggest.    Maybe they should try to keep tradesmen and farmers from work, we can buy Chinese rice for the right price.   They cannot succeed.  I’m not referring to some clause denying the states the right to regulate interstate commerce.   We both know a paper says what the judge says it does, not what the reader might suppose.   They cannot succeed because they lack the resources.   Panicking people may viciously attack refugees that look or act different.   But their cousin that grows and the fishing buddy are their own people.    I could almost believe a Serbian style genocide of Charleston refugees crossing the bridge in a Mercedes, not Bud and Tom crossing the hollar .   They’ll be snuck across the Ohio River by johnboat via Kentucky if necessary.  The border is porous.   It will remain porous.  Even during the civil war there was a constant black market crossing the blue and gray lines.   Blood and gold will overrule edict from Columbus.   The folks on either side of the Ohio River are more closely related then they are to people from Columbus and Cleveland.   They know the same jokes.   They hunt together.   Husband and wife both have the same cousin in West Virginia.   

 
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roundthebuoys

Super Anarchist
9,909
909
Limelight
At this point, the "President" is irrelevant.  My town will open when we feel like it's the right time.  The mayors and city councils and the hospital and police and fire department will start signaling it might be OK.  We won't forget the restaurants and bars that stayed open too long nor the ones that closed down early.  The ones that went WAY out of their way to stay open for drive up service wearing space suits and the ones who blew it off and let people in joking about it being no big deal.  The grocery stores and mini-mart gas stations that have spent a lot of money and time trying to mitigate this shit and stay open are truly impressive.  The school district has done all they can.  The Sun Valley Co and Aspen Co who own the resort and hotels were first to shut it all down.  There will be a few days of harmony, and then the town will weed out the assholes with our dollars.  I hope the country as a whole does that en masse.  I honestly don't care what the "President" does. 

 

MR.CLEAN

Moderator
45,215
3,812
Not here
At this point, the "President" is irrelevant.  My town will open when we feel like it's the right time.  The mayors and city councils and the hospital and police and fire department will start signaling it might be OK.  We won't forget the restaurants and bars that stayed open too long nor the ones that closed down early.  The ones that went WAY out of their way to stay open for drive up service wearing space suits and the ones who blew it off and let people in joking about it being no big deal.  The grocery stores and mini-mart gas stations that have spent a lot of money and time trying to mitigate this shit and stay open are truly impressive.  The school district has done all they can.  The Sun Valley Co and Aspen Co who own the resort and hotels were first to shut it all down.  There will be a few days of harmony, and then the town will weed out the assholes with our dollars.  I hope the country as a whole does that en masse.  I honestly don't care what the "President" does. 
+38m

 
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Se7en

Super Anarchist
1,207
442
Melbourne
First off most pneumonia deaths are bacterial, viral pneumonia is rare, possibly because of the feature-length of the alveoli.

Influenza is not a coronavirus, it's an influenza virus. SARS, MERS, H1N1 and of course The Common Cold are coronaviruses.

The pneumonia deaths aren't "down 1/4 to 1/3" because it seems the only ones left before they fell off that cliff are the pneumonia diagnoses that were made before the SARS-CoV-2 crisis. We don't even know where that cliff will hit bottom yet, but once that cliff appeared, pneumonia deaths were reduced by at least 90%, and about 18,000 deaths compared to say, 2014.

Further, viral pneumonia is not a Community Acquired Pneumonia. CAP is predominately spread by bacterial strep.

You need to look at the companion graph to the pneumonia one, the CDC also shows that cliff with "all deaths." So it's likely that "social distancing" isn't doing jackshit.

Rather, it seems that people are suddenly not dying because of the lockdown; lack of traffic deaths, lack of accidental hospital deaths, lack of workplace deaths, and the big one, lack of air pollution deaths.

Finally, to your question, I don't know what y'all are going to do with this knowledge that we can shut down the economy and temporarily save lives, but this clean air is an opportunity to learn how to keep it clean. GORP - Global Ozone Rubber Participant.
Ahh - there are a lot of statements there without attribution or support.

  • viral pneumonia is far from rare https://thorax.bmj.com/content/63/1/42 "Conclusions: Virus-associated CAP is common in adults". Sure, by the time someone dies in hospital, they will likely have a bacterial infection as well. (Plus their liver will be fucked, heart barely functioning etc). One paper I read had influenza type A as the cause of 45% of pneumonia, which was what I based the 'bacterial and viral causes are about equal' from.
  • You are correct to pull me up on saying influenza is a corona virus. I should have said a virus which affects the respiratory system and is transferred via the same mechanism as COVID 19
  • You graph shows approximately 40000 deaths from Pneumonia on average and 25k currently. That's about a 30% drop. Where are you getting the 90% figure from?
  • You do realise that 'CAP' is just used to differentiate from 'hospital aquired'? Streptococcus is a pretty common bacteria, which rarely causes pneumonia, again I have not seen any evidence that the primary cause of pneumonia is Strep? Total bacterial pneumonia I have seen in the 45% range.
  • We are in agreement on the total deaths reduction, except once again I have seen no evidence that lowered air pollution is having the instantaneous effect you assume. Do you have some support for this claim?

Overall, this seems like a bunch of pointless nit pickery when I still don't actually understand what the argument is on this topic? To me, it seems obvious that the measures in place have reduced the spread of all contageous diseases (and hence deaths) exactly as expected (plus reduced deaths by various misadventures). Do you disagree with this?

What is your point?

Do you have an opinion about the cost vs benefit of restarting human activity over time?

 

d'ranger

Super Anarchist
28,447
3,861
Suggestion - if you are bored enough to carry on with Mikey do the rest of us a YUGE favor and don't quote him - he responds to anybody and anything so you don't even have to address him. 

Thanks,

Miss Management.

 

Gissie

Super Anarchist
6,392
1,667
Nice change of direction there AM. To answer, old enough to be hitting the age having a better chance of not surviving an attack.

As for owning a sail boat, nah. Used to, then spent years getting paid to be on them. As for the demographics of who is in the sport, maybe the question I was answering would be the best outcome for the future of the sport.

Millions of old boomers die, leaving house, investments and boats to a younger crowd. Some of those inheriting a boat will like it and go sailing, more room at the club bar now the old dicks at the end gave shuffled off. Some that don't inherit will have always wanted a boat but could never afford it will buy one.

So your silly jibe at how the sport is suffering has an answer. Just not a very acceptable one for most.

 

d'ranger

Super Anarchist
28,447
3,861
Nice change of direction there AM. To answer, old enough to be hitting the age having a better chance of not surviving an attack.

As for owning a sail boat, nah. Used to, then spent years getting paid to be on them. As for the demographics of who is in the sport, maybe the question I was answering would be the best outcome for the future of the sport.

Millions of old boomers die, leaving house, investments and boats to a younger crowd. Some of those inheriting a boat will like it and go sailing, more room at the club bar now the old dicks at the end gave shuffled off. Some that don't inherit will have always wanted a boat but could never afford it will buy one.

So your silly jibe at how the sport is suffering has an answer. Just not a very acceptable one for most.
Why wait for a disease? Especially one that doesn't take much to overwhelm our healthcare systems - which is the big problem - hospital full then everything non covid is going to fight for the right to get treated. Heart Attack and it takes a half hour for EMS to arrive? It's already happened in NYC. Need surgery? Better hope you don't get infected as a bonus.

So a better solution would be to build some camps and ovens and be efficient.  National Slogan "Gramps went to live on that farm in the country".

 

Left Shift

Super Anarchist
10,284
3,110
Seattle
At this point, the "President" is irrelevant.  My town will open when we feel like it's the right time.  The mayors and city councils and the hospital and police and fire department will start signaling it might be OK.  We won't forget the restaurants and bars that stayed open too long nor the ones that closed down early.  The ones that went WAY out of their way to stay open for drive up service wearing space suits and the ones who blew it off and let people in joking about it being no big deal.  The grocery stores and mini-mart gas stations that have spent a lot of money and time trying to mitigate this shit and stay open are truly impressive.  The school district has done all they can.  The Sun Valley Co and Aspen Co who own the resort and hotels were first to shut it all down.  There will be a few days of harmony, and then the town will weed out the assholes with our dollars.  I hope the country as a whole does that en masse.  I honestly don't care what the "President" does. 
And now the *resident has declared that he has "unlimited powers" to re-open the country and governors be damned.  

We are delighted to live in a state with a governor who will NOT be cowed by the covidiot in the White House or his mini-me Pence.  If the mango tries to order the country open to soon or too sloppily (both good bets), we will see who the red-hatted maggots really are and they will be thoroughly shunned.

 

roundthebuoys

Super Anarchist
9,909
909
Limelight
And now the *resident has declared that he has "unlimited powers" to re-open the country and governors be damned.  

We are delighted to live in a state with a governor who will NOT be cowed by the covidiot in the White House or his mini-me Pence.  If the mango tries to order the country open to soon or too sloppily (both good bets), we will see who the red-hatted maggots really are and they will be thoroughly shunned.
Let him come here and force the Sun Valley Co. (Owned by Sinclair Oil and multitudes richer than him) to turn the closed sign around.  Believe me, they want to, but he has nothing to do with it.

 

Gissie

Super Anarchist
6,392
1,667
Why wait for a disease? Especially one that doesn't take much to overwhelm our healthcare systems - which is the big problem - hospital full then everything non covid is going to fight for the right to get treated. Heart Attack and it takes a half hour for EMS to arrive? It's already happened in NYC. Need surgery? Better hope you don't get infected as a bonus.

So a better solution would be to build some camps and ovens and be efficient.  National Slogan "Gramps went to live on that farm in the country".
Jesus d', never took you for a supporter of the death committees and ovens. I personally think you are going to far, but we each see things differently I guess. Would never go that far myself, despite what blinkered Am seems to think.

Although if we do follow your plan, I do like the slogan. Has a nice friendly tone for a potentially nasty choice.

 
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