Restarting America Means People Will Die. So When Should We Do It?

Gouvernail

Lottsa people don’t know I’m famous
37,703
5,262
Austin Texas
Some might suggest if we were  truly interested in improving our society post pandemic, we would be holding HUGE Trump rallies. 
Unfortunately, most of them would live through the disease and, because of their shared experience, they would be permanently glued together as a voting block. 
    The fact is, the disease is here to stay for a very long time. Eventually, virtually everyone will be exposed and either live or die. 
   Our very best chance relies on small doses of exposure causing less serious individual illness and each of us who survives carries long term immunity.  
If that happens we can go back to having festivals, concerts, NASCAR, FIFA, NBA. NFL, Olympics, Pope visits, visits to Mecca, Disneyworld, State fairs, College football, topless bars, and mega churches. 
   Currently, opening any of the above would result in huge numbers of  deaths 
 

 
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Saorsa

Super Anarchist
36,781
422
There are some problems with that.  There is no 100% way to verify you are virus free.  They are finding people who have had it and recovered are also testing positive again weeks later.  They may also be carriers.

Once people are coming into contact again it will begin transmitting again regardless of what we do. Of course, I'm just guessing.
Virus free is a fluid concept.  Infection free or immune are less difficult but that is where random testing can help.  I think that once we have decided on which of the current multitude of different tests are most effective that they will be generally available in hospitals and medical labs and we can make definitive diagnoses during routine visits.

For example, most people get a flu shot evey year.  That procedure could be changed to also collect a sample to test for SARS-Cov-2.  It wouldn't hurt to take all those samples to another level to determine new strains as they develop.

It's going to be a quite a while before people feel as safe with COVID as they do with "the seaslonal flu" though.

 

Saorsa

Super Anarchist
36,781
422
Some might suggest if we were  truly interested in improving our society post pandemic, we would be holding HUGE Trump rallies. 
Unfortunately, most of them would live through the disease and, because of their shared experience, they would be permanently glued together as a voting block. 
    The fact is, the disease is here to stay for a very long time. Eventually, virtually everyone will be exposed and either live or die. 
   Our very best chance relies on small doses of exposure causing less serious individual illness and each of us who survives carries long term immunity.  
 
You seem to be the only one making that stupid assumption.

 

Gouvernail

Lottsa people don’t know I’m famous
37,703
5,262
Austin Texas
You seem to be the only one making that stupid assumption.
 Gouvernail wrote: The fact is, the disease is here to stay for a very long time. Eventually, virtually everyone will be exposed and either live or die. 
   Our very best chance relies on small doses of exposure causing less serious individual illness and each of us who survives carries long term immunity.  
If you think I am the only one who understands what I described as reality, you are woefully ignorant. 
 

 

Jules

Super Anarchist
8,265
3,131
Punta Gorda
There will be difficult compromises between doing everything possible to save lives from Covid-19 and preventing other life-threatening, or -altering, harms.
One of the issues here is we have the media, and thus the masses, laser focused on COVID deaths.  And when there's a single cause for a lot of death, the natural inclination is to do whatever it takes to eliminate whatever it is that's causing all the deaths.

Over 2,000 deaths were caused by the 9/11 attacks.  American went full on to make sure that never happens and poured trillions into that effort with thousands more dying in the hopes of achieving that goal.  No one talks about all the Americans who lost their lives, and are still losing their lives, in that effort because we were so focused on making sure we'd never see another 9/11 again. 

We've have justified that cost with an emotional, irrational response.  And we might be doing that again.

There will be deaths attributed to sheltering in place. but when they happen, they will never get the attention the media is giving to COVID deaths, if they get any attention at all.  Depression, loneliness, inability to pay for proper health care, starvation, etc.  People who, in normal times may not have died, will die because of how we are reacting to COVID.  Maybe we need to start keeping track of those deaths, too.

 

Bristol-Cruiser

Super Anarchist
4,590
1,208
Great Lakes
I think it is critical to appreciate that the return to normalcy will be a process and not an event. Trump being the simple-minded soul he is (I assume he has a soul of sorts), thinks you can say 'it' will happen on May 1st.There is no 'it', Things will be relaxed gradually and following different paths in different places. Best to look at some of the pioneers in this like China, South Korea, and Japan. It is working better in SK than Japan for example. China has imposed a massive monitoring system that is likely not possible, politically and technically, in the West.

A vacinologist (who knew there were such things) at Oxford was quoted yesterday that she there is an 80% chance a vaccine will be ready for use by September. That might be out best shot. I wonder how long it takes to make seven billions doses?

 

Fakenews

Super Anarchist
13,546
1,767
Wishing misfortune on others is a sign of emotional illness, in my opinion.

Seek help.
What?  I merely said you and the elk are not good and valued posters here.  Don’t be like Jerkz and assume that means people want to kill you.

 

Fakenews

Super Anarchist
13,546
1,767
I think it is critical to appreciate that the return to normalcy will be a process and not an event. Trump being the simple-minded soul he is (I assume he has a soul of sorts), thinks you can say 'it' will happen on May 1st.There is no 'it', Things will be relaxed gradually and following different paths in different places. Best to look at some of the pioneers in this like China, South Korea, and Japan. It is working better in SK than Japan for example. China has imposed a massive monitoring system that is likely not possible, politically and technically, in the West.

A vacinologist (who knew there were such things) at Oxford was quoted yesterday that she there is an 80% chance a vaccine will be ready for use by September. That might be out best shot. I wonder how long it takes to make seven billions doses?
We only have to make 5B.. Shithole countries without nuclear weapons or oil  won’t be a priority......

 
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Sol Rosenberg

Girthy Member
93,309
11,006
Earth
I think it should be optional. Let the folks who think it’s no big deal go out and get the advantage of participating in the economy sooner than others. Go to restaurants, bars, churches, etc. 

Also let those who are essential workers require those who opt out to be excluded from their businesses. Don’t want to wear a mask? Go to the store that doesn’t require one. 
 

Let bullshitters put their money (and lives) where their mouths are. 

 

Jules

Super Anarchist
8,265
3,131
Punta Gorda
I think it should be optional. Let the folks who think it’s no big deal go out and get the advantage of participating in the economy sooner than others. Go to restaurants, bars, churches, etc. 
So long as those who serve get the necessary support from our government - a letter in today's local paper:


LETTER: I will continue to serve my country


Editor:

I am being deployed again tomorrow at the grocery store where I work. I am being asked to support those who wish to purchase products necessary to combat the most recent strain of coronavirus as well as those who wish to do normal, everyday shopping.

I have begun to develop symptoms of PTSD, but will continue to serve my country as best I can. I am confident that my government has included in the $2.2 trillion bailout package the money required to provide the necessary assistance I may need.

God bless America.

 

Bristol-Cruiser

Super Anarchist
4,590
1,208
Great Lakes
Relax..If you believe Trump is discouraging testing it's because you've been duped. He is in fact bragging about doing the most testing, we have the best tests, nobody tests like we test.
I assume you meant to use the purple font, didn't you?

You can sort the Worldometer data by the field you want. If you do this you find that the US is ranked 39th in terms of number of tests per million people at 7670. A number of countries above the US are very small for what this worth, but these include places like Iceland with 100,000 per million. You could say they have a small population but they also have small financial resources and no domestic sources of sophisticated testing. Some not small countries - Norway 22,700, Germany 15,700, Italy 15,000, Australia 13, 269, etc. The US is just not doing well with testing in spite of recent ramp up. Also testing in the country is not uniform. Not surprisingly New York has a lot at 21,000 while Kansas has only 3900 which would put Kansas between Croatia and Djibouti on the world list.

 

Sol Rosenberg

Girthy Member
93,309
11,006
Earth
So long as those who serve get the necessary support from our government - a letter in today's local paper:


LETTER: I will continue to serve my country


Editor:

I am being deployed again tomorrow at the grocery store where I work. I am being asked to support those who wish to purchase products necessary to combat the most recent strain of coronavirus as well as those who wish to do normal, everyday shopping.

I have begun to develop symptoms of PTSD, but will continue to serve my country as best I can. I am confident that my government has included in the $2.2 trillion bailout package the money required to provide the necessary assistance I may need.

God bless America.
That’s just not going to happen, unless a percentage of the money allocated could be transferred to the Best Americans as part of the transaction. By “percentage” I mean somewhere north of 95%. 
 

Anything less would be socialism. 

 
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Jules

Super Anarchist
8,265
3,131
Punta Gorda
A lot of large venues like stadiums, arenas, churches and the Kennedy Center need to be mothballed indefinitely right now.  I don't see them coming back on line for a couple of years.
Of course, the magical vaccine (by magical, I mean total eradication) will change that prediction.  But other than that, I tend to disagree with the time you've estimated. 

Right now we know there are people who have been through the illness and come out on the other side carrying the COVID antibodies.  As those numbers grow, more and more people will start demanding a return to some semblance of normalcy.  And if in conjunction with obtaining accurate data on those who now carry the antibodies, we also compile data on how many have died due to social distancing and shutting down the economy, the attitude of the people will change.  The latter could become shocking. 

I believe the pendulum will settle somewhere close to what we have historically accepted for seasonal illness and deaths.  And it wouldn't be at all that surprising if that happened in less than a year. 

 

Jules

Super Anarchist
8,265
3,131
Punta Gorda
That’s just not going to happen, unless a percentage of the money allocated could be transferred to the Best Americans as part of the transaction. By “percentage” I mean somewhere north of 95%. 
 

Anything less would be socialism. 
You mean like what's already happening with that $2.2T deal?

 

mikewof

mikewof
44,999
1,118
I think it should be optional. Let the folks who think it’s no big deal go out and get the advantage of participating in the economy sooner than others. Go to restaurants, bars, churches, etc. 

Also let those who are essential workers require those who opt out to be excluded from their businesses. Don’t want to wear a mask? Go to the store that doesn’t require one. 
 

Let bullshitters put their money (and lives) where their mouths are. 
Sol, your bubble is showing.

People all over the economy haven't stopped working.

There are millions of Americans (typically the kind who can't afford sailboats) who don't have a fat retirement income, or a cushy job that allows them to receive a paycheck for not leaving their house.

And if you haven't noticed, most everything in this lockdown has become more expensive. The store brands are limited, the cheap breakfast cereals are off the shelves, the cheap meats are replaced by better quality cuts.

Both of my older children lost their jobs and they have taken to doing shopping for people like you, at less than minimum wage rates.

Maybe you should realize that one of these "bullshitters" has a really nice truck with a mini sail loft in it.

 
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Burning Man

Super Anarchist
10,341
1,954
Back to the desert
As much as I agree with the concept, I don't think it's possible to have a rational national discussion.  I don't think there's an appetite for a rational discussion on this board, let alone the greater public.   Simply put, 'rational' means you have to be able to apply some sort of value judgement (qualitative, if not quantitative) on human life, and that's just beyond what can be discussed in America.

I think we're going to emotionally lurch back and forth between societal guard rails until there are treatments/vaccines that get the severity of infection under what can be handled in local hospitals.  And then COVID becomes the flu, or diabetes, or drug overdoses, or other 'acceptable' morbidity risks and people put it out of their minds and watch football and fireworks and sail on a beautiful summer afternoon again.
FWIW, I agree with you that we can't have a rational discussion on this board or in 'Murica.  I tried to address this exact question nearly a month ago and I was accused of wanting to put Granny on the ice floe.  

Yet now the exact same folks (not you CM) who attempted to shred me to pieces for daring to broach this exact subject (thread here) are now grudgingly coming around the idea that we will have to make some hard choices because you cannot stop the economy cold forever or even for a long period without long lasting and potentially greater damage than what you're supposedly trying to cure.  I, in no way, was suggesting that we reopen the economy on Mar 18th when I started that thread.  I was simply trying to get people to discuss the "idea" that at some point, we were going to have to make some hard choices.  

Sounds like ya'll are now contemplating putting granny on the ice flow after all.   You should be ashamed of yourselves.  Fucking Hypocrites!  

 
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