Restarting America Means People Will Die. So When Should We Do It?

mikewof

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mikewof

mikewof
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Just pointing out your continual lie that the numbers the Feds are reporting are both comprehensive and correct.
Lie?

I agree with you, the infection numbers are a joke, The Lancet research I linked suggests that we have only counted less than 10% of those infected. Correct data would make the mortality rate plummet.

And yet, you wisely don't trust the government, but you're still following lemming-like.

 
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MR.CLEAN

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There should be a convention for all of the skeptics to celebrate the reopening of our economy. A huge party. Tremendous. On the National Mall. Get all the Faithfull together to celebrate owning the libs. Many people are suggesting it very strongly. Belief me. 
I actually think something like that is going to happen in at least one of the dumb states; some kind of loud re-opening at the beginning of May that becomes an exciting livestreamed experiment for a month or so.  Kind of like the way Sweden has proudly undertaken a similar experiment.  It's incredibly valuable to have that data just as it is sad for all the Swedes that would not be dead but for the government's failure to listen to its scientists.

 
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MR.CLEAN

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I do agree with you that this lockdown should have been voluntary from the beginning.
I agree with you that there's no way to do a voluntary lockdown in a specific area for things that are highly contagious. 

I also agree with you that you have to wall off each state so that it can experiment on its own, and that the best way to begin the experiment is to start with Alabama, Texas, Florida, and Georgia.

 

mikewof

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I agree with you that there's no way to do a voluntary lockdown in a specific area for things that are highly contagious. 

I also agree with you that you have to wall off each state so that it can experiment on its own, and that the best way to begin the experiment is to start with Alabama, Texas, Florida, and Georgia.
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Fakenews

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I actually think something like that is going to happen in at least one of the dumb states; some kind of loud re-opening at the beginning of May that becomes an exciting livestreamed experiment for a month or so.  Kind of like the way Sweden has proudly undertaken a similar experiment.  It's incredibly valuable to have that data just as it is sad for all the Swedes that would not be dead but for the government's failure to listen to its scientists.
NASCAR Talladega. 
Perfect, all the ek wil go.

 

DustyDreamer

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Short of testing 100% of the people in one day, testing is a 'feel good' plan.  Think of it this way- if we were to test 10% of the population each day, and  if you find a positive on day 5, that person(s) could have contaminated some of the first 40%.  Testing solves nothing!
Uh. No. Just NO!

Have you heard of sampling? Do you understand what statistical modeling is? Data? Numbers? Math? 

You test so you can better characterize the disease and it's rate of infection among other things. It is absolutely critical in helping us combat this but you don't need even close to 100% or even 50% coverage. 

 

badlatitude

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Then why were you and your elk such cunts to me when I attempted to have a rational discussion about this a month ago???
Sorry, Jeff, I did not participate in that thread but it sounds like it was great fun. I spent the better part of March moving to my Oregon ranch to stay away from this virus crap. From your tone, you sound like you need some Poise pads to keep your dignity afloat. Should I arrange to have some sent to you?

 

badlatitude

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As much as I agree with the concept, I don't think it's possible to have a rational national discussion.  I don't think there's an appetite for a rational discussion on this board, let alone the greater public.   Simply put, 'rational' means you have to be able to apply some sort of value judgement (qualitative, if not quantitative) on human life, and that's just beyond what can be discussed in America.

I think we're going to emotionally lurch back and forth between societal guard rails until there are treatments/vaccines that get the severity of infection under what can be handled in local hospitals.  And then COVID becomes the flu, or diabetes, or drug overdoses, or other 'acceptable' morbidity risks and people put it out of their minds and watch football and fireworks and sail on a beautiful summer afternoon again.

Now the stuff that's going to get me in trouble - the same personality features of Trump that made him pretty awful going into the COVID crisis are actually going to play fairly well coming the other side.  I know people don't want to hear that.  Trump is an emotionally driven pitchman who 'reads the crowd'.   He shut everything down (late)  and he's probably going to open things up (early) because the majority of Americans aren't really that rational.  We want what we want, not based on "reason" or logic.  Yea.. 'This feels like it's been long enough..."  And Trump caters to it.

And unlike most politicians, he doesn't mind changing direction.  For 99% of politicians in democratic governments, the idea of shutting down, then reopening, then shutting down again is terrifying.  They could be wrong and 'blood will be on their hands'!  Trump won't give a shit.  He'll mouth the words about ** most important decision of my presidency **  but he doesn't believe that.  He's reading the crowd.  He'll keep the quarantine in place until a majority push back.. he's a populist through and through.  Then he'll reopen.  And if it goes badly and people start getting angsty, he'll requarantine.  There is no logic to a populist.  It's mob rule.

I can tell you that the business folks I deal with are planning on May 18th as the day the national quarantine guidance is lifted.  That's essentially the end of the '6-8 weeks' initial estimate.

EDIT _ BTW, by 'quarantine guidance lifted' I mean an expansion is the definition of "critical."  Places like barber shops and TJ MAXX will reopen.  I think some restaurants may reopen with isolated seating for example.  They will have limited access, 6' boundaries, masks, etc.  There won't be professional conferences, sporting events, concerts, or major gatherings for the rest of this year IMHO. 
You’re likely spot on about this. I think it will be a battle of wills but the majority prevails except where some determined business owners demand workers return. Trump will demand that his voice be heard above everyone but I think that he will be ignored by governors who understand the limits of power. 
I think it’s fair to consider that any dialogue will be set by urgency, if old people are last to be cared for along with disabled and crippled, I think the pushback will be forceful . Of course, if the virus gets out of hand, anything goes.

I don’t mind being tossed aside, but if it comes to that I’ll go full ‘Logan’s Run’ on the establishment. Leave it all to the kids, it will save them the trouble of trying to figure out what to do with the assholes who ruined their future for them.
 

 

Raz'r

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Lie?

I agree with you, the infection numbers are a joke, The Lancet research I linked suggests that we have only counted less than 10% of those infected. Correct data would make the mortality rate plummet.

And yet, you wisely don't trust the government, but you're still following lemming-like.
You’ve really become an ass. I fall into the “danger” zone (even though I might have had it, can’t say, no tests!) so I’m keeping my ass at home.

and that’s being a lemming?

 

Left Shift

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Uh. No. Just NO!

Have you heard of sampling? Do you understand what statistical modeling is? Data? Numbers? Math? 

You test so you can better characterize the disease and it's rate of infection among other things. It is absolutely critical in helping us combat this but you don't need even close to 100% or even 50% coverage. 
You are right about modeling and planning, but wrong about opening for business.  When (optimistically) I re-open my office, I will want ALL employees tested and retested regularly.  I will treat EVERY visitor and delivery as contaminated.  I will probably hire a constant cleaner to wipe down all surfaces after use.  We will reconsider attending off-site meetings after there is a vaccine.  

Simply put, if my wife gets this she dies.  One failure is one too many.

NOTHING the *resident of the USofA says has any value or meaning.  He might as well be making fart noises with his armpits.  I will listen to our governor, Inslee, and our mayor.  They are reasonable, intelligent, well informed and well-meaning.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/what-comes-next-the-coronavirus-end-game-will-require-massive-testing-and-maybe-high-tech-tracking/?utm_medium=notification&utm_source=pushly&utm_campaign=506957

 

mikewof

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You’ve really become an ass. I fall into the “danger” zone (even though I might have had it, can’t say, no tests!) so I’m keeping my ass at home.

and that’s being a lemming?
At 99.8% some survival rate for the infection, you were in a lot more danger from air pollution, pneumonia and car accidents before your quarantine.

Speaking of lemmings, have you seen the most recent CDC data? The death rate has fallen off a cliff.

 

DustyDreamer

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You are right about modeling and planning, but wrong about opening for business.
I didn't say anything at all about opening for business. Right now that's basically unthinkable in many situations. And without widespread testing, as you obviously agree, it will remain so.

 

badlatitude

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One of the issues here is we have the media, and thus the masses, laser focused on COVID deaths.  And when there's a single cause for a lot of death, the natural inclination is to do whatever it takes to eliminate whatever it is that's causing all the deaths.

Over 2,000 deaths were caused by the 9/11 attacks.  American went full on to make sure that never happens and poured trillions into that effort with thousands more dying in the hopes of achieving that goal.  No one talks about all the Americans who lost their lives, and are still losing their lives, in that effort because we were so focused on making sure we'd never see another 9/11 again. 

We've have justified that cost with an emotional, irrational response.  And we might be doing that again.

There will be deaths attributed to sheltering in place. but when they happen, they will never get the attention the media is giving to COVID deaths, if they get any attention at all.  Depression, loneliness, inability to pay for proper health care, starvation, etc.  People who, in normal times may not have died, will die because of how we are reacting to COVID.  Maybe we need to start keeping track of those deaths, too.
There is a movement to do exactly that. New York is making a serious attempt to correct the problem and count everyone who died while in quarantine. I am sure that the actual count is magnitudes greater than what is being reported. It will be shocking when when the true numbers are known.

 

Ventucky Red

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Los Angeles extended the quarantine today until May 15th.

Edit: I wish you well also
Los Angeles is going to be in a world of hurt if "the rona" hits skid row and some of the other homeless hot spots. 

NYC Mass graves will nothing compare to this shitstorm.

 

MR.CLEAN

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There is a movement to do exactly that. New York is making a serious attempt to correct the problem and count everyone who died while in quarantine. I am sure that the actual count is magnitudes greater than what is being reported. It will be shocking when when the true numbers are known.
i doubt it will be shocking. What I do think may be shocking is the number of lives saved by the Inside Time.  Deaths from the flu, pneumonia, air pollution, car accidents and the like are already off a cliff, and those kill hundreds of thousands per year. 

 

Snore

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“Testing solves nothing”.  You’re a blithering idiot.


Testing solves nothing? Going for the stupid post of the day?
So gents, I clearly explained why testing does not solve the core problem.  So you don’t have to lol at my original post, I will repeat it.  With one minor amplification.  
 

The given is that you cannot test everyone in one day.  Let’s say you lock down America and test 10% per day.   On day 5 you find 2% positive.  How do you know that 2% has not infected the 32% (8%*4) you already tested who reported negative?  Obviously, you don’t!  So what has testing done?

Perhaps give a false sense of security to those who tested negative—but got infected by the 2% per day that were positive but still walking around.

Before you start foaming at the mouth.  Please rationalize how testing solves the under issue - a virus with no known cure or vaccine.

Please explain how it SOLVES this pandemic.

 

MR.CLEAN

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So gents, I clearly explained why testing does not solve the core problem.  So you don’t have to lol at my original post, I will repeat it.  With one minor amplification.  
 

The given is that you cannot test everyone in one day.  Let’s say you lock down America and test 10% per day.   On day 5 you find 2% positive.  How do you know that 2% has not infected the 32% (8%*4) you already tested who reported negative?  Obviously, you don’t!  So what has testing done?

Perhaps give a false sense of security to those who tested negative—but got infected by the 2% per day that were positive but still walking around.

Before you start foaming at the mouth.  Please rationalize how testing solves the under issue - a virus with no known cure or vaccine.

Please explain how it SOLVES this pandemic.
Testing = data

data = knowledge

knowledge = plan

plan = solution

No testing = no data

no data = no knowledge

no knowledge = guesswork

guesswork = no solution

Do you want to just rely on the rest of the world to solve a problem and maybe let you in on the solution, or do you want to try to come up with the solution in your area?  If the latter, than testing is unnecessary.

 
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