Restarting America Means People Will Die. So When Should We Do It?

mikewof

mikewof
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With the CDC pneumonia data that was just published, I can't see how much longer we'll be able to manage this charade. The news outlets have now resorted to tales of misery of the infected. There were no tales of misery last year when 1,000,000 Americans found themselves in the hospital over pneumonia and there were no tales of misery when 50,000 Americans died of pneumonia. So eventually, the average American is going to see that "fell off the cliff" graph from the CDC and they're going to make the same connection a few of us made back when there were 20 virus deaths in the USA.

So yeah, the lockdown has to end. And no, we're not getting out of this without a black eye and a broken nose, two cracked ribs, an instant cauliflower ear, two bruised kidneys and a dull ache around our waist where our Championship Belt used to lay, and now it's bare, China just beat the living shit out of us on this, they did it fair and square, and we deserved to be beat by them because they were the better fighter and we were a nation of Netflix-binging pretty boys who take photos of our food and use electric razors to shave our pubes because some chick in a television commercial told us that she likes her men to look like Ken Dolls.

Well, fuck that shit.

We got beat. China out-maneuvered us, they outworked us, they outsmarted us. And now they own a whole lot more of us than they did three months ago.

Yeah, our economy will recover, why would it not recover when China and Mexico start outsourcing their manufacturing to us? Why would it not improve when Canada and Germany outsource their R&D to us? We'll survive, and we'll probably even see another four years of this shit, leadership of a populist, as CMillikin so perfectly described. Not just a populist, an Ultra-Populist. An Ultra-Populist like the world has not seen yet, able to romance both his enemies and friends as nobody has before or since. And this Ultra-Populist was at the helm on the day our country shot itself in the foot, chopped off our big toe and handed it to our bookie.

And this is where we are, Gentlemen and Women of Sailing Anarchy ... we're the ones in the ghetto who know how to do things. We can drill a hole in a nickle to save a dime on a washer, we can gel-coat our own four knot shit box, we can even make toys that can move direct downwind faster than the wind and then stupidly pass up the opportunity to commercialize the toy and make a few million. (Fucking Spork, wtf, man?) We know how to do things for ourselves, hell, even Sol with the life that can't imagine there are people who have to work for a living, even he knows how to rig a boat, and if necessary, rig some billboards or hillbilly-engineer a small bridge.

We're going to need all of these skills in this road ahead of us. Because that shit you see in the supermarket, where you can't get the giant bag of knock-off Cheerios, and you can't get the 25-cent pack of Oodles of Noodles? Those empty shelves? Those suddenly insane food prices? We might squeeze the balloon to make it look like we're doing okay, but we just accrued trillions of dollars of debt in less than three months and the recovery may cost up to $20 trillion. That kind of cheddar doesn't come from a country who manufactures adorable wooden furniture, or trendy dog collars. To cover a $20 trillion vig, a player needs something genuinely new, genuinely disruptive, and capable to creating a seismic shift to global manufacturing schedules.

If we want our million dollar trendy Melbourne homes to continue to be worth a million Dollars and not a million Lire, then we better not look for the answer on Netflix, or look for it in Sailing Anarchy. I suspect that The Almighty himself has washed his hands of this mess  that we've created. We just handed our children and our grandchildren a mess that is going to take them a good chunk of their lives to clean up for us. The old, orange man shat on the floor, and the teenager now has to mop it up.

 
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mikewof

mikewof
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So gents, I clearly explained why testing does not solve the core problem.  So you don’t have to lol at my original post, I will repeat it.  With one minor amplification.  
 

The given is that you cannot test everyone in one day.  Let’s say you lock down America and test 10% per day.   On day 5 you find 2% positive.  How do you know that 2% has not infected the 32% (8%*4) you already tested who reported negative?  Obviously, you don’t!  So what has testing done?

Perhaps give a false sense of security to those who tested negative—but got infected by the 2% per day that were positive but still walking around.

Before you start foaming at the mouth.  Please rationalize how testing solves the under issue - a virus with no known cure or vaccine.

Please explain how it SOLVES this pandemic.
Testing alone won't solve this pandemic.

To solve THIS pandemic, we need testing, some functional analysis where we square the i's and actually manage the infinities instead of sweeping them under the rug, and a handful of sufficiently intelligent policy makers to see that the actual data drives the decisions.

And then ... poof, no pandemic.




 
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Snore

Super Anarchist
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323
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Testing definitely solves the pandemic.

Because with proper testing there is no pandemic.


Testing = data

data = knowledge

knowledge = plan

plan = solution

No testing = no data

no data = no knowledge

no knowledge = guesswork

guesswork = no solution

Do you want to just rely on the rest of the world to solve a problem and maybe let you in on the solution, or do you want to try to come up with the solution in your area?  If the latter, than testing is unnecessary.


I agree data is needed to solve a problem.  Also defining the problem is the first step in solving it.

But the problem is defined. We already have 10’s of thousands of data points.  The Corona virus/COVID-19 is killing people. 
 

So what is the solution? We need to develop a care plan for those with symptoms, and a vaccine to stop the spread.

We do not need extensive testing to define how many have it.  We know we basically have to vaccinate the planet.   

 

Fakenews

Super Anarchist
13,505
1,762
So gents, I clearly explained why testing does not solve the core problem.  So you don’t have to lol at my original post, I will repeat it.  With one minor amplification.  
 

The given is that you cannot test everyone in one day.  Let’s say you lock down America and test 10% per day.   On day 5 you find 2% positive.  How do you know that 2% has not infected the 32% (8%*4) you already tested who reported negative?  Obviously, you don’t!  So what has testing done?

Perhaps give a false sense of security to those who tested negative—but got infected by the 2% per day that were positive but still walking around.

Before you start foaming at the mouth.  Please rationalize how testing solves the under issue - a virus with no known cure or vaccine.

Please explain how it SOLVES this pandemic.
It doesn’t SOLVE a pandemic you fucking moron.  No one has said it does. It does help enormously in responding to a pandemic minimizing death and infection and preserving medical resources and infrastructure.

You should go back to sea.  You’re too stupid to be ashore.

 

badlatitude

Super Anarchist
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4,715
Los Angeles is going to be in a world of hurt if "the rona" hits skid row and some of the other homeless hot spots. 

NYC Mass graves will nothing compare to this shitstorm.
It most definitely will be a problem getting those folks to comply with a quarantine, but there have been serious moves to get them all sheltered. Small business will a large problem, the stimulus does little to seriously help those people, they will be anxious to start up and move on, I just don’t know if the city and county will let them.

whatever happens, it’s sure to get uglier by the day.

 

badlatitude

Super Anarchist
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i doubt it will be shocking. What I do think may be shocking is the number of lives saved by the Inside Time.  Deaths from the flu, pneumonia, air pollution, car accidents and the like are already off a cliff, and those kill hundreds of thousands per year. 
True, but This is still a pandemic and has the ability to be far worse. If not handled properly, every one of us will be familiar with casualties. I don’t think I have ever known anyone who died from the flu.

 

MR.CLEAN

Moderator
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But the problem is defined. We already have 10’s of thousands of data points.  The Corona virus/COVID-19 is killing people. 
So what is the solution? We need to develop a care plan for those with symptoms, and a vaccine to stop the spread.

We do not need extensive testing to define how many have it.  We know we basically have to vaccinate the planet.   
What is the plan if we cannot find an effective vaccination?  What is the plan if the only effective vaccination can only be tolerated by 40% of the population?  What is the plan if it takes 6 years to find a vaccination?  What is the plan if it takes 1 year to find a vaccination but another year to vaccinate the world? 

If we can understand the mechanism and process of contagion in great detail and if we can understand the nature and degree of immunity in those who recover, we can get people back to some sense of normalcy in a planned manner. 

If we have developed fast and accurate tests, we can monitor actively and be ready to implement shutdown procedures anywhere there is a hotspot. 

If we have comprehensive and frequently updated testing data, we can figure out if and when wider life can get back to normal even in the absence of a vaccine.

All of that requires more data than "the...virus is killing people" and "we basically have to vaccinate the planet"

 

badlatitude

Super Anarchist
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Relax..If you believe Trump is discouraging testing it's because you've been duped. He is in fact bragging about doing the most testing, we have the best tests, nobody tests like we test.
You were right the first time. Trump is duping the nation. Just where are those tests? He said day before yesterday that there would be no test, the very idea of testing 325 million was ludicrous. Yet all of the medical experts are saying that a test is our way out of this. Who prevails?

 
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Sol Rosenberg

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The testing is the problem. All this testing keeps driving up the numbers of infected people. If we don’t test there won’t be any virus. 

 

Snore

Super Anarchist
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What is the plan if we cannot find an effective vaccination?  What is the plan if the only effective vaccination can only be tolerated by 40% of the population?  What is the plan if it takes 6 years to find a vaccination?  What is the plan if it takes 1 year to find a vaccination but another year to vaccinate the world? 

If we can understand the mechanism and process of contagion in great detail and if we can understand the nature and degree of immunity in those who recover, we can get people back to some sense of normalcy in a planned manner. 

If we have developed fast and accurate tests, we can monitor actively and be ready to implement shutdown procedures anywhere there is a hotspot. 

If we have comprehensive and frequently updated testing data, we can figure out if and when wider life can get back to normal even in the absence of a vaccine.

All of that requires more data than "the...virus is killing people" and "we basically have to vaccinate the planet"
I understand the logic.  And agree that fast, accurate testing is critical.  
 

The idea of no vaccine for more than a year or a vaccine with low usage rate is scary.  If that happens we will see population shrink.   We will see those with fewer resources dying first.  If that happens things can get wonky   Stated otherwise, this is scenario is not an option.

Therefore, we will disagree on the conclusions of your post.

 

mikewof

mikewof
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But the problem is defined. We already have 10’s of thousands of data points.  The Corona virus/COVID-19 is killing people. 

So what is the solution? We need to develop a care plan for those with symptoms, and a vaccine to stop the spread.

We do not need extensive testing to define how many have it.  We know we basically have to vaccinate the planet.   
You can't cure or vaccinate against rhinoviruses and coronavirus. They're too virulent, they mutate too quickly, and they have too many strains. Take all the difficulty of curing and vaccinating against flu and multiply times ten, that's rhinoviruses and coronaviruses. They have been evolutionarily designed to survive and prosper in the most difficult parts of the respiratory system; high air velocities, large temperature shifts, high mechanical stress.

The SARS-CoV-2 is killing people, but it it's more deadly than any other SARS-CoV, then that isn't due to the virus itself, or even the bacterial coinfection that actually kills otherwise healthy people rather than those with depleted immunity. If SARS-CoV-2 is any more deadly than SARS-CoV-1, or SARS-CoV-43, then it's because of the external conditions to which it was borne into this world. And not borne into this world because of some bullshit about some person eating a bat or a civet (humans have been eating nasty shit for millions of years, this is a 2000s thing) but rather borne into this world the way virus are borne into this world, the millions of sub-sub-strains have completely filled their host organisms over the cold-and-flu-season, and then the warm air comes, and like snow to a population of bunnies, the various strains, mutations, sub-mutations, sub-strains, sub-sub-mutations and sub-sub-strains start to die off like those bunnies in an ice storm. And then after that long, hot summer, a few coronaviruses and a few rhinoviruses and even a few Belgian Kickboxer flu viruses are left. Those are the best, of the best. And they made it through and then they are joined by their weaker sisters from the Southern Hemisphere, and they set a course for new adventure.

If SARS-CoV-2 is any worse than any of those, it's not because some super virus popped into existence. It's because of the external conditions. Did we have a cold-flu season that helped the spread of the viruses? Did we suddenly add a couple hundred million new e-cigarette vape users to the global product market, and find that respiratory viruses seem to have a devil's playground in a lung coated with propylene glycol and glycerin. Did the virus coming into being when ground level ozone pollution in Hubei was so bad that one lab in Golden, Colorado couldn't even measure the surface reactions of that much ozone pollution with the existing test methods? Was the baby virus borne into a hemisphere that was so saturated with accumulation-mode submicron particulates that the virus had a hundred-fold increase of nucleation sites?

You can't cure or vaccinate rhinoviruses and coronaviruses, and we may never be able to do so. So rather than look at rhinoviruses and coronaviruses as pathogenic boogeymen, we should instead recognize them as canaries in the coal mine. They are normally harmless, but in the wrong conditions, the wrong coinfections, they will sing their little heads off until they fall over dead and a hundred terrified miners trample toward the entrance. SARS-CoV-2 is, in the purest medical definition, a cold virus. Not a flu virus, not a pneumonia bacterium, but a cold virus. And like untold multitudes of cold viruses before them, they will happily take millions of lives because that's what cold viruses do, not because they are especially dangerous, but because rhinoviruses and coronaviruses are like that fucking asshole Rick Yukon and his disgusting sidekick Mikewof who insists on twisting the knife when history has once again shown him to be correct inthefuture.com. That rhinovirus and that coronavirus will find the people who can least afford an infection, and without mercy, they will continue to pile straws on the camel's back until it snaps the The Cromarty's gear-driven door lock grinds up an accountant's arm that was attached to an accountant, who was on a ship full of accountants, all standing around in their underwear, waiting to be tested for SARS-CoV-2.

 

mikewof

mikewof
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It doesn’t SOLVE a pandemic you fucking moron.  No one has said it does. It does help enormously in responding to a pandemic minimizing death and infection and preserving medical resources and infrastructure.

You should go back to sea.  You’re too stupid to be ashore.
He's asking exactly the right questions, you just lack sufficient education to recognize them.

Seek teacher.

 

mikewof

mikewof
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The testing is the problem. All this testing keeps driving up the numbers of infected people. If we don’t test there won’t be any virus. 


Yes.

And the more we test, the lower the mortality rate falls, and the less justification for this demented three-horned goat you seem to love so much.

 

mikewof

mikewof
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What is the plan if we cannot find an effective vaccination?  What is the plan if the only effective vaccination can only be tolerated by 40% of the population?  What is the plan if it takes 6 years to find a vaccination?  What is the plan if it takes 1 year to find a vaccination but another year to vaccinate the world? 

If we can understand the mechanism and process of contagion in great detail and if we can understand the nature and degree of immunity in those who recover, we can get people back to some sense of normalcy in a planned manner. 

If we have developed fast and accurate tests, we can monitor actively and be ready to implement shutdown procedures anywhere there is a hotspot. 

If we have comprehensive and frequently updated testing data, we can figure out if and when wider life can get back to normal even in the absence of a vaccine.

All of that requires more data than "the...virus is killing people" and "we basically have to vaccinate the planet"


This is wrong, you don't seem to understand the meaning of the word "immunity."

Do you have any idea how hard it is for me to not make a joke right now about "flicking" a booger?

 
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mikewof

mikewof
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San Francisco forced people to wear masks during the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. Did it help?


https://www.sfgate.com/coronavirus/article/1918-pandemic-masks-bay-area-california-15185425.php
Holy Shit, good find!

920x1240.jpg


 

MR.CLEAN

Moderator
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Not here
I understand the logic.  And agree that fast, accurate testing is critical.  
 

The idea of no vaccine for more than a year or a vaccine with low usage rate is scary.  If that happens we will see population shrink.   We will see those with fewer resources dying first.  If that happens things can get wonky   Stated otherwise, this is scenario is not an option.

Therefore, we will disagree on the conclusions of your post.
i appreciate your acknowledgement and this discussion.  I would recommend though that you realize that longterm lack of an effective vaccine is quite possible, at least if you look at the history of vaccine development.  I believe the combined power of the world's smart people being supported by the world's rich people and the world's government money will produce a vaccine or an effective treatment regime, but it's not always easy or possible to do so.

 
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