Restarting America Means People Will Die. So When Should We Do It?

roundthebuoys

Super Anarchist
9,909
912
Limelight
Apparently you're really bad at this, because you don't seem to know what is a metric. I assume your numbers of 1,000 to 530,000 are for SARS-CoV-2?

Now, what is the metric that those "cases" were used to define "cases"? Antibody tests? Physician diagnoses? Emergency room hosptializations? You want me to get data, but you have to first tell me what your numbers mean. "Cases" is a remarkably vague thing to use, so please be specific, or I can't help you.
Keep spinning.  You have lived and died by the CDC.  March 10th 937 cases.  Today 530,000. 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

 

SloopJonB

Super Anarchist
67,275
11,612
Great Wet North
Apparently you're really bad at this, because you don't seem to know what is a metric. I assume your numbers of 1,000 to 530,000 are for SARS-CoV-2?

Now, what is the metric that those "cases" were used to define "cases"? Antibody tests? Physician diagnoses? Emergency room hosptializations? You want me to get data, but you have to first tell me what your numbers mean. "Cases" is a remarkably vague thing to use, so please be specific, or I can't help you.
Keep spinning.  You have lived and died by the CDC.  March 10th 937 cases.  Today 530,000. 
It depends on what the meaning of is, is.

 

mikewof

mikewof
45,063
1,120
Keep spinning.  You have lived and died by the CDC.  March 10th 937 cases.  Today 530,000. 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
So you link to data without knowing what the data tells you? Look at the data you posted and get back to me about what is defined as "case." Hospital admission? A physician over the phone telling someone "might be the virus, stay inside and get back to me in two days"?

Even with our dodgy data, we're at 98.5% survival rate. With the Lancet data we're closer to 99.8% survival rate. 

If you want a specific answer you need to pose a specific question.

 

Raz'r

Super Anarchist
61,190
5,021
De Nile
So you link to data without knowing what the data tells you? Look at the data you posted and get back to me about what is defined as "case." Hospital admission? A physician over the phone telling someone "might be the virus, stay inside and get back to me in two days"?

Even with our dodgy data, we're at 98.5% survival rate. With the Lancet data we're closer to 99.8% survival rate. 

If you want a specific answer you need to pose a specific question.
Talking out of your ass. No one has any idea the real survival rate. Especially not that bullshit one.

 

ModernViking

Anarchist
816
105
North Pole
Round two?


South Korea says recovered patients testing positive again


South Korean officials report 91 patients thought to have recovered from the new coronavirus have tested positive again.

Jeong Eun-kyeong, director of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), told a briefing the virus may have been "reactivated" rather than the patients being reinfected.

South Korean health officials said it remained unclear what caused the second round of infections, with epidemiological investigations still underway.

PHOTO: South Korean health officials said it remained unclear what caused the second round of infections. (Reuters: Kim Kyung-hoon)
The prospect of people being reinfected with the virus is of international concern, as many countries are hoping infected populations will develop sufficient immunity to prevent a resurgence of the pandemic.

Kim Woo-joo, professor of infectious diseases at Korea University Guro Hospital, also said patients had likely "relapsed" rather than been reinfected.

"The number will only increase, 91 is just the beginning now," he said.

False test results could also be at fault, other experts said, or remnants of the virus could still be in patients' systems but not be infectious or of danger to the host or others.

South Korea had recorded 10,450 confirmed cases as of Saturday morning, according to Johns Hopkins University, with 208 deaths.

More than 7,100 South Koreans were believed to have recovered from COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus.
This can be seen with any type of flu.
Also the tests are not 100 percent (5-10 percent gives wrong results), so they may not have had COVID-19 when tested the first time. The virus will most likely mutate though, and everyone can be infected again, but natural selection favors pathogens that are less lethal and with milder symptoms.  (It's not good for it's spread if the hosts gets so sick that they are isolated from other people, and death is obviously undesirable from a pathogens persepective).

 

mikewof

mikewof
45,063
1,120
Talking out of your ass. one has any idea the real survival rate. Especially not that bullshit one.
Wrong. The survival rate = 100 - mortality rate.

Before using The Lancet study, the current survival rate is 100 - (21,000/533,000) = 96.1%. But even the common number is 99.33%,

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/health/coronavirus-lower-death-rate/index.html 

And then using The Lancet study, IIRC with 86% infections unconfirmed, it's closer to 100 - (21,000/(533,000/0.14)) = 99.5%. If you use the April increase in deaths to scale the likely infections, it's closer to 99.8%.

 
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Gissie

Super Anarchist
6,483
1,705
Yeah, that'll work. Provided you never let anyone into the country going forward without a mandatory couple weeks in quarantine.

FKT
Yeah, weird idea. No details on what is meant by eradicate, but obviously a step past the curve flattening ideas. Just stay in lock down until it has been eradicated, will need some serious testing to prove it has gone.

Maybe the plan is to take all the dodgy test kits the rest of the world has returned. No positives, all good, must be eradicated so off we all go again.

Not letting anyone in wouldn't be that bad a thing. If they must, then couple of weeks quarantine, at their cost, would at least weed out those with bugger all to spend. Plus the added bonus of less people to get off my lawn.

 

Mid

Blues Rule
“Why don’t we let this wash over the country?” Trump asked, a question others told the Post the president has raised repeatedly in the Oval Office. Fauci, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, realized with surprise that Trump was serious, the Post reported. 

“Mr. President,” Fauci responded, according to the Post. “Many people would die.”
https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/trump-free-range-covid-19-death-toll_n_5e925a48c5b6f7b1ea82dcd7?ri18n=true

 

mad

Super Anarchist
Maybe if you ask nicely I'll look it up for you. But I'm not interested in doing anything for someone who demands without a "please" and a "thank you."

The quarantine is not your opportunity to be the asshole you apparently aspire to be.
You can't.  You're a liar.  Show me a graph that shows Pneumonia cases going from 1000 to 530,000 cases in one month
Mike in full swing still. 
 

Babies-Should-Be-Picked-Up-Every-Time-They-Cry.jpg

 

VhmSays

Supreme Anarchist
1,594
319
There is a difference of about 1500 deaths in current vs previous data in deaths attributed to pneumonia per week. This is preliminary data subject to change as data is corrected, updated and compiled from all sources. 

 

Steam Flyer

Sophisticated Yet Humble
42,565
8,724
Eastern NC
This can be seen with any type of flu.
Also the tests are not 100 percent (5-10 percent gives wrong results), so they may not have had COVID-19 when tested the first time. The virus will most likely mutate though, and everyone can be infected again, but natural selection favors pathogens that are less lethal and with milder symptoms.  (It's not good for it's spread if the hosts gets so sick that they are isolated from other people, and death is obviously undesirable from a pathogens persepective).
Kinds depends. Some pathogens, ebola for example, can spread post-mortem just fine.

CoviD-19 kills the alveolar cells in your lungs, the tiny air sacs that exchange O for CO2 from the blood. You spread it by exhaling the reproduced virus in exhaling or coughing. When it first starts, you barely notice, you have millions of lung cells. Then after a few days, and getting short of breath, you start to feel bad, but are exhaling virus more than ever. By this point, your immune system is starting to ramp up and the race is on, will you run out of lung cells, or will your own immune system drown you? But it's in the virus best interest to keep you exhaling virus as long as possible. Since that process can continue until you don't have any more lung cells, why should the virus care?

Of course the virus doesn't have emotions, it doesn't "care," really. But I mean, why should your death affect the mechanism of how the virus reproduces maximally? Some viruses, it definitely makes a difference, it is against the viruses best interest to kill the host. But I don't think that's true for this one.

- DSK

 
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Snore

Super Anarchist
3,088
323
DTSP and on OPB
 There is no way to stop a rhinovirus or a coronavirus.
Thank you.  That one statement alters the problem.  From what I had read (not Fox or garbage sites) was that there was promise for a vaccine in 14-18 months.  
 

If Coronavirus germs (they have been around for some time) are that hard to vaccine against, then expending effort on quantifying makes sense.  

 

Steam Flyer

Sophisticated Yet Humble
42,565
8,724
Eastern NC
There is a difference of about 1500 deaths in current vs previous data in deaths attributed to pneumonia per week. This is preliminary data subject to change as data is corrected, updated and compiled from all sources. 
Well, there you go. All them doctors 'n shit ain't as smart as Woofsey. He be much MUCH smarter'n dem.

- DSK

 

Saorsa

Super Anarchist
36,781
422
Thank you.  That one statement alters the problem.  From what I had read (not Fox or garbage sites) was that there was promise for a vaccine in 14-18 months.  
 

If Coronavirus germs (they have been around for some time) are that hard to vaccine against, then expending effort on quantifying makes sense.  
A vaccine is not a cure.  It is basically a stimulant for your immune system in regard to a particular virus.

There is an interesting article on tracking the genome through current changes from the NYT

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/science/new-york-coronavirus-cases-europe-genomes.html

According to Nextstrain there are now over 3400 derivatives.  That site is worth a visit.  You can animate the spread on the map

 

Saorsa

Super Anarchist
36,781
422
Another NYT article breaks down the genome.  Lots of interesting things in the article.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/03/science/coronavirus-genome-bad-news-wrapped-in-protein.html

Part of the spike can extend and attach to a protein called ACE2 (in yellow below), which appears on particular cells in the human airway. The virus can then invade the cell.

The gene for the spike protein in SARS-CoV-2 has an insertion of 12 genetic letters: ccucggcgggca. This mutation may help the spikes bind tightly to human cells — a crucial step in its evolution from a virus that infected bats and other species.

A number of scientific teams are now designing vaccines that could prevent the spikes from attaching to human cells.

image.png

 
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