If Alan didn't see the Schooner until it was one boatlength astern, you can't very well say that 'he had every reason to think the schooner had seen you' let alone any reason to speculate what she planned to do.Looking at case 107 is worthwhile,
I don't think it necessarily applies (looking at the photos) because by all appearance you had every reason to think that the schooner had seen you and planned to duck your stern.
You should probably ask yourself (and your crew) why no-one hailed her, and at what point it was obvious she was going to snag your back stay as this could be important in deciding whether you broke R14.
(personally I don't think you did, but that's only based on part of the evidence)
The best he can say is that he did see her one boatlength astern, assessed that there was sufficient room for her to change course and keep clear and thus:
- it was not clear to him that the schooner was not keeping clear and thus under rule 14( a ), he was not required to take any action to avoid contact at that time; and
- had he changed course, he may have broken rule 16, and had no certainty of obviating contact in any case, thus, at that time, and thereafter, it was not reasonably possible for him to avoid contact.