Sail Boat Industry - where is it at today? Popcorn thoughts solicited

Epi-sailor

Member
151
20
PNW
Simply curious about the financial/economic state of the sailboat industry in a changing geopolitical macroeconomic environment.  Are buyers still lining up for build slots?  Have prices escalated at roughly the same rate as inflation?  Will people who bought boats during the early part of the pandemic begin to move on to other interest or inflation raises the cost of ownership?  Etc, etc, etc.....

I have dug around the internet but the real data appears to be locked down in industry subscription only vaults.

I'm simply curious and know there are a few well informed SA folks with insight or random popcorn thoughts.

 

fastyacht

Super Anarchist
12,928
2,596
Simply curious about the financial/economic state of the sailboat industry in a changing geopolitical macroeconomic environment.  Are buyers still lining up for build slots?  Have prices escalated at roughly the same rate as inflation?  Will people who bought boats during the early part of the pandemic begin to move on to other interest or inflation raises the cost of ownership?  Etc, etc, etc.....

I have dug around the internet but the real data appears to be locked down in industry subscription only vaults.

I'm simply curious and know there are a few well informed SA folks with insight or random popcorn thoughts.
As always, some sailors are lining up for build slots at some builders.

 

AnotherSailor

Super Anarchist
1,276
403
SF Bay
Regarding the price of boats: goes up up up. All supplies are expensive, especially those involving fossil fuels, which is FG, aluminum, stainless steel, plastics, most certainly. 

Who have been hit by the pandemic? Mostly those who cannot afford a new sailboat anyway. The pandemic created extra value for sailboats, and I do not see that value disappear yet. So the upper middle class and upper class are doing fine, and have revalued their lives giving priority to enjoying it. From what I hear of those working in the boat industry, they are doing fine to great, although supplies chains create big headaches. 

On a somewhat related note I did hear that in the Netherlands luxury yacht builders are worried because even while their customers are unknown and money comes from places very far from Russia, there is a good chance that the majority of those unknown customers might be friends of Putin. They never wanted to know and do not know, yet are worried just the same... 

 

hoektron

Member
234
126
Gulf Coast, TX
I'm certainly not an industry insider, but I have a new cat under build and from what I understand, most factories have order books filled for *years* at this point. Like another poster said, supply chains are a real issue and the builder I'm working with is trying to get orders for stuff like electronics way in advance to avoid delays. 

 

Epi-sailor

Member
151
20
PNW
I'm certainly not an industry insider, but I have a new cat under build and from what I understand, most factories have order books filled for *years* at this point. Like another poster said, supply chains are a real issue and the builder I'm working with is trying to get orders for stuff like electronics way in advance to avoid delays. 
I get the sense that new builds such as this may in fact have higher value on or after delivery as a simple supply side economics give greater value to a scarce item.  Still seems to be the case with cars and used boats.  

 

Voiled

Member
438
313
The interbellum between WWI and II gave birth to a huge megayacht boom, question is where on the timeline we currently exist.

 

Epi-sailor

Member
151
20
PNW
The interbellum between WWI and II gave birth to a huge megayacht boom, question is where on the timeline we currently exist.
Didn’t know this.  And indeed where on the timeline are we? The amount of available money cut loose during a whole series of big picture challenges is interesting.  

 

Rum Runner

Rum Runner
5,302
310
Illinois
From what I hear, even small single handed and double handed boats are in high demand.  Dealers have orders but no boats so the waiting time is months if not longer.  

 

Bowchow

Anarchist
615
13
FP is selling slots for 2025 delivery

Neel is selling late 23

Nautitech is selling late 23

Grand soleil is late 23

Leopard is late 24 

late buyers at La Grand Motte are offering "cash for slots" to other buyers.. 30,40,50K sometimes. 

Boat financing rates are still in the low 4's with a half decent credit score. 

Things are still looking good for the moment. 

 

robtoujours

Anarchist
536
319
Somewhere
Before February I would have thought that things would continue as they are going for a while yet.

Now it is very hard to make predictions. 

As the EU is committing economic suicide at a rate unprecedented since 1990 there could well be food shortages, hyperinflation, permanent suspension of air travel, collapse of most profitable industrial manufacturing enterprises in the EU starting to take hold in the next 6 months. This will lead to social chaos on a scale not seen since the 1930s, most likely military dictatorships and civil war in several EU nations. Long-term the breakup of the EU is likely.

The USA and the rest of the world will be fine in comparison. Unless the Chinese really start to increase the pain dial (by which I mean "supply chain disruptions")  for geopolitical reasons.

I would say that lower end of the market - used boats, new boats under 40' and mass charter operations - is more likely to suffer. Living the dream may suddenly become more and more expensive - and restricted in novel ways - for low-middle income groups. The higher end more likely to keep growing, but with higher input and thus end prices across the board. 

It is a dynamic situation and my reading might be totally off. 

 
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Epi-sailor

Member
151
20
PNW
Before February I would have thought that things would continue as they are going for a while yet.

Now it is very hard to make predictions. 

As the EU is committing economic suicide at a rate unprecedented since 1990 there could well be food shortages, hyperinflation, permanent suspension of air travel, collapse of most profitable industrial manufacturing enterprises in the EU starting to take hold in the next 6 months. This will lead to social chaos on a scale not seen since the 1930s, most likely military dictatorships and civil war in several EU nations. Long-term the breakup of the EU is likely.

The USA and the rest of the world will be fine in comparison. Unless the Chinese really start to increase the pain dial (by which I mean "supply chain disruptions")  for geopolitical reasons.

I would say that lower end of the market - used boats, new boats under 40' and mass charter operations - is more likely to suffer. Living the dream may suddenly become more and more expensive - and restricted in novel ways - for low-middle income groups. The higher end more likely to keep growing, but with higher input and thus end prices across the board. 

It is a dynamic situation and my reading might be totally off. 
Yikes - that is a grim EU view.  I hope you are wrong re social chaos and war.  The rest seems plausible but at at the far end of a continuum.  

 

Epi-sailor

Member
151
20
PNW
FP is selling slots for 2025 delivery

Neel is selling late 23

Nautitech is selling late 23

Grand soleil is late 23

Leopard is late 24 

late buyers at La Grand Motte are offering "cash for slots" to other buyers.. 30,40,50K sometimes. 

Boat financing rates are still in the low 4's with a half decent credit score. 

Things are still looking good for the moment. 
Have a friend with a early/mid 24 spot with HR but at the time 6mths ago) this was by choice. I’m curious where other quality mono builders are at.  

 

MiddayGun

Super Anarchist
1,179
442
Yorkshire
The USA and the rest of the world will be fine in comparison. Unless the Chinese really start to increase the pain dial (by which I mean "supply chain disruptions")  for geopolitical reasons.
China has its own incoming economic issues to worry about, I don't think they'll be in any position to increase the pain dial, not without shooting themselves in the foot. 

I’ve always wanted a nice Dutch steel boat.  Maybe the prices will drop….
Can't see that happening, at least not for some time, massive inflation everywhere, increased raw material cost, increased production costs, rising cost of living leading to higher salaries for workers. 

 

inneedofadvice

Super Anarchist
1,495
218
Sarnia
Before February I would have thought that things would continue as they are going for a while yet.

Now it is very hard to make predictions. 

As the EU is committing economic suicide at a rate unprecedented since 1990 there could well be food shortages, hyperinflation, permanent suspension of air travel, collapse of most profitable industrial manufacturing enterprises in the EU starting to take hold in the next 6 months. This will lead to social chaos on a scale not seen since the 1930s, most likely military dictatorships and civil war in several EU nations. Long-term the breakup of the EU is likely.

The USA and the rest of the world will be fine in comparison. Unless the Chinese really start to increase the pain dial (by which I mean "supply chain disruptions")  for geopolitical reasons.

I would say that lower end of the market - used boats, new boats under 40' and mass charter operations - is more likely to suffer. Living the dream may suddenly become more and more expensive - and restricted in novel ways - for low-middle income groups. The higher end more likely to keep growing, but with higher input and thus end prices across the board. 

It is a dynamic situation and my reading might be totally off. 
Aren’t you just a ray of sunshine. 

 

Movable Ballast

Anarchist
6,201
249
San Diego
Data point of one...

For me it's about the technology. I'm finally in a position to consider a new boat, if the technology is the same as my old boat (water dozer) for a newer boat, I'll just keep the old one. But if I can get a better technology with the comfort (read Bene first 36 / J112e) I'll jump in. I do have a pain limit, if the prices go stratospheric and the investment community can't keep pace, I'll have to consider how fast I want to go or wait till the used market has these boats.  

 

robtoujours

Anarchist
536
319
Somewhere
Aren’t you just a ray of sunshine. 
Canada and the USA are net food / energy exporters with high levels of natural resources. So you will be fine so long as these states are competently governed

The alternative is the northern hemisphere turned into glass and the unlucky survivors explaining to their kids why their hair is falling out.

Currently the saner heads in the Pentagon are preventing that from happening. Jack D. Ripper works for the State Department now. I hear he blinks a lot and worries about his precious bodily fluids. I would hope the generals succeed in a coup should the neocon crazies try anything really stupid, but you can never underestimate the ability of sociopaths to fuck things up. 

As for the EU, I have to admit that I am stunned at the skill of the UK/US strategy that has revealed itself. Clearly in retrospect Brexit was ordered or tacitly encouraged from Washington. 

The UK is the protected junior partner; divided only by a common language. The UK has an independent nuclear deterrent; is now safely sealed off from the EU; and will seek to reimpose some form of tribute from it's remaining Empire (Commonwealth) going forward, while preserving the role of the City of London as a safe haven for the capital of global oligarchs. Sterling is less affected by the USD and Euro losing their status as reserve currencies.

It is the EU that depends greatly on not only fictitious capital, but - crucially - discounted access to raw materials for its remaining industrial base - and being seen as a safe haven for the capital of global oligarchs. 

So two out of those three pillars have just been kicked out from underneath it. Voluntarily.

If - as some say - the EU really believes they can take over Africa to compensate - they will be cruelly disabused of this notion. 

So, the UK/US Empire is getting a previously peaceful near-peer potential competitor to self-destruct without a shot being fired.. Sun Tzu would be impressed. They have played an absolute blinder. 

Whether it is total chaos or just Brazilianization for the EU - and the timescale - is an open question. There is a lot of inertia - but things tend to happen gradually, then suddenly.

 
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hoektron

Member
234
126
Gulf Coast, TX
Canada and the USA are net food / energy exporters with high levels of natural resources. So you will be fine so long as these states are competently governed

The alternative is the northern hemisphere turned into glass and the unlucky survivors explaining to their kids why their hair is falling out.

Currently the saner heads in the Pentagon are preventing that from happening. Jack D. Ripper works for the State Department now. I hear he blinks a lot and worries about his precious bodily fluids. I would hope the generals succeed in a coup should the neocon crazies try anything really stupid, but you can never underestimate the ability of sociopaths to fuck things up. 

As for the EU, I have to admit that I am stunned at the skill of the UK/US strategy that has revealed itself. Clearly in retrospect Brexit was ordered or tacitly encouraged from Washington. 

The UK is the protected junior partner; divided only by a common language. The UK has an independent nuclear deterrent; is now safely sealed off from the EU; and will seek to reimpose some form of tribute from it's remaining Empire (Commonwealth) going forward, while preserving the role of the City of London as a safe haven for the capital of global oligarchs. Sterling is less affected by the USD and Euro losing their status as reserve currencies.

It is the EU that depends greatly on not only fictitious capital, but - crucially - discounted access to raw materials for its remaining industrial base - and being seen as a safe haven for the capital of global oligarchs. 

So two out of those three pillars have just been kicked out from underneath it. Voluntarily.

If - as some say - the EU really believes they can take over Africa to compensate - they will be cruelly disabused of this notion. 

So, the UK/US Empire is getting a previously peaceful near-peer potential competitor to self-destruct without a shot being fired.. Sun Tzu would be impressed. They have played an absolute blinder. 

Whether it is total chaos or just Brazilianization for the EU - and the timescale - is an open question. There is a lot of inertia - but things tend to happen gradually, then suddenly.
Damn yo, can I have some of what you're smoking??

 




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