Sail Boat Industry - where is it at today? Popcorn thoughts solicited

fastyacht

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<<"but you can never underestimate the ability of sociopaths to fuck things up.">>

Quip of the Month Award

 

Bowchow

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Have a friend with a early/mid 24 spot with HR but at the time 6mths ago) this was by choice. I’m curious where other quality mono builders are at.  
Depends on the model of course, but for an average 45-60' mono, Swan is at mid 2023, oyster is mid/early 23, hylas is the same at mid/late 23

Mono builders are definitely not feeling the same pressure as multihull builders currently. Still a wait, but not as dramatic. 

That being said, the entry level brands are still booked up. Bene, Catalina, Jeanneau are all late 23/early 24. This means a great "resurgence"  in sailing, but most of those who buy above brands will not transition into racing or evolve much past cruises around the bay. Still more boats on the water, still more people sailing which is a win win in my book. 

Source - I have a buyer who is looking at above yards for a new build. 

 
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MauiPunter

Will sail for food
My buddy who works for Hanse said if you were to order one today, delivery is Fall of 2023.  Unless its a model that has a production slot already in progress than you are looking at Spring of 2023.

 
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Veeger

Super Anarchist
Overall, while new orders are extending out several years, who in North America is building new sailboats of 30+? (In any appreciable volume) The European order books have to meet demand from not just N America, but also Europe.  Robtoujours’ outlook may be grim but it’s not far fetched.  When the European boat builders run out of cash/supplies, there won’t be all that many new boats being built.

$6-$10/gallon diesel will be putting a crimp on the powerboat crowd and it will soon be very non-PC to be running a large ‘wave making machine’.  Meanwhile, the pre-2000 boats will continue to age out and be less and less attractive.

After my recent experience with a custom design and the consequent challenges of finding/affording a builder, I realized that if I want a boat in the next 3 years, I have to either accept a ‘cast off’ of the recent used boat rush (i.e. crap boat for crazy dollars) or find a generic production (read European) boat that has been ordered, scheduled for delivery, but not yet sold.  So I jumped on it.

I should be sailing a new boat before end of summer (he said hopefully). Meanwhile, I’m rooting for a few powerboat owners to be giving up their slip this year so I can park my new beast…

 
$6-$10/gallon diesel will be putting a crimp on the powerboat crowd and it will soon be very non-PC to be running a large ‘wave making machine’.  Meanwhile, the pre-2000 boats will continue to age out and be less and less attractive.
I'm glad that inflated petroleum costs only affect day-to-day boat operation, and not the cost of fiberglass, resin, mining and fabrication of metals, sails, industry worker costs and marina costs.  

Otherwise this boatsailing thing would be getting quite expensive, and perhaps about to pass out of the range of middle class ownership entirely. Stupid Putin, all his fault I am told. 

 

MauiPunter

Will sail for food
$6-$10/gallon diesel will be putting a crimp on the powerboat crowd and it will soon be very non-PC to be running a large ‘wave making machine’.  Meanwhile, the pre-2000 boats will continue to age out and be less and less attractive.
Didn't the gas crises in the 70s light a fire under the sailing industry?

 

robtoujours

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8789FBEE-EE95-4695-80F5-57BE9207AF57.jpeg
 

A reminder: the EU Commission (as I know from some professional experience) is composed of those who are selected for failing the basic test of all historical political systems: winning popularity contests and/or social manipulation. 

They are shunted upwards based on their ability to aggravate the actual winners in national political systems. Often through extreme incompetence or crassly obvious corruption.

A look at Fonda Lyin’s PhD thesis is instructive. 

She is allegedly in charge of a war economy and now says unanimity must go.

Macron is already talking about an alternative to the EU. 

The center cannot hold?

There will be stress tests. 

 
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A

Amati

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Canada and the USA are net food / energy exporters with high levels of natural resources. So you will be fine so long as these states are competently governed

The alternative is the northern hemisphere turned into glass and the unlucky survivors explaining to their kids why their hair is falling out.

Currently the saner heads in the Pentagon are preventing that from happening. Jack D. Ripper works for the State Department now. I hear he blinks a lot and worries about his precious bodily fluids. I would hope the generals succeed in a coup should the neocon crazies try anything really stupid, but you can never underestimate the ability of sociopaths to fuck things up. 

As for the EU, I have to admit that I am stunned at the skill of the UK/US strategy that has revealed itself. Clearly in retrospect Brexit was ordered or tacitly encouraged from Washington. 

The UK is the protected junior partner; divided only by a common language. The UK has an independent nuclear deterrent; is now safely sealed off from the EU; and will seek to reimpose some form of tribute from it's remaining Empire (Commonwealth) going forward, while preserving the role of the City of London as a safe haven for the capital of global oligarchs. Sterling is less affected by the USD and Euro losing their status as reserve currencies.

It is the EU that depends greatly on not only fictitious capital, but - crucially - discounted access to raw materials for its remaining industrial base - and being seen as a safe haven for the capital of global oligarchs. 

So two out of those three pillars have just been kicked out from underneath it. Voluntarily.

If - as some say - the EU really believes they can take over Africa to compensate - they will be cruelly disabused of this notion. 

So, the UK/US Empire is getting a previously peaceful near-peer potential competitor to self-destruct without a shot being fired.. Sun Tzu would be impressed. They have played an absolute blinder. 

Whether it is total chaos or just Brazilianization for the EU - and the timescale - is an open question. There is a lot of inertia - but things tend to happen gradually, then suddenly.
Africa? Apparently the Chinese are more rascist, condescending, manipulative economically, and brutal than the Europeans were at their worst, which is kind of mind boggling.  If that is the case, Europe offering Africa real partnerships might work.  That said, it is difficult not to marvel at the blinkered hardness of your world view.  It has been said that one cannot be cynical enough, ever, but that didn’t turn out well for Southern Italy during the plague.  The trick will be working towards synergies rather than employing a scorched earth sadism, which we are seeing, um, elsewhere.  The past rather than the future?   We’d be really lonely without a vital Europe. But hey, money and power….

 

robtoujours

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Africa? Apparently the Chinese are more rascist, condescending, manipulative economically, and brutal than the Europeans were at their worst, which is kind of mind boggling.  If that is the case, Europe offering Africa real partnerships might work.  That said, it is difficult not to marvel at the blinkered hardness of your world view.  It has been said that one cannot be cynical enough, ever, but that didn’t turn out well for Southern Italy during the plague.  The trick will be working towards synergies rather than employing a scorched earth sadism, which we are seeing, um, elsewhere.  The past rather than the future?   We’d be really lonely without a vital Europe. But hey, money and power….
“Apparently” is doing a lot of work here.

A big green retooling of industry towards an “Energiewende” for the climate and to “hit back at Putin” is the emerging EU strategy, I think.

And the EU will always have tourism. It’s infrastructure will also take a long time to degrade.

But will building increasingly opulent yachts for the 1% out of scarce hydrocarbons fit with this new strategy?

 
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