he b gb
Anarchist
About 4pm-4.30pm
SailGP
- Thread starter Priscilla
- Start date
Jethrow
Super Anarchist
and for those Aussies that haven't seen the news yet, 7Mate will be televising both Saturday and Sunday on Free-to-air!
he b gb
Anarchist
Just checked it out on Windy, looking real good. We’re heading down from Qld especially for it, can’t wait!
Are you going to watch Jethrow?, we’ve bought tickets on the Captain Cook access ferry.
Jethrow
Super Anarchist
he b gb
Anarchist
shebeen
Super Anarchist
I've been saying for a while that the SailGP scoring system is too simplistic, there needs to be bonus points for making the final and winning it. currently the difference between 1st and 2nd is the same is 6th and 7th.
current standing
here's my own scoring system with 20pts for a regatta win, and dcreasing down to 1 for 10th (there were 10 teams originally for this season)
1
2
3
4
5
7
9
13
16
20
it's not wildly different actually, but a consistently decent team like Denmark are further off the pace than the current scoring. An "inconsistent" elite team like NZ are boosted by the regatta wins they have pulled off. What is clear is that the cream rises quicker with my system, and the result is that the race to the final is decided earlier. So while it makes more sense, it doesn't actually improve the "excitement" of the final regattas. I haven't modelled it, but I do think a regatta discard after event 5 would be a good idea too.
current standing
here's my own scoring system with 20pts for a regatta win, and dcreasing down to 1 for 10th (there were 10 teams originally for this season)
1
2
3
4
5
7
9
13
16
20
it's not wildly different actually, but a consistently decent team like Denmark are further off the pace than the current scoring. An "inconsistent" elite team like NZ are boosted by the regatta wins they have pulled off. What is clear is that the cream rises quicker with my system, and the result is that the race to the final is decided earlier. So while it makes more sense, it doesn't actually improve the "excitement" of the final regattas. I haven't modelled it, but I do think a regatta discard after event 5 would be a good idea too.
shebeen
Super Anarchist
so who is going to make the final?
going from the current log and 3 events to go, the only thing we know for sure is it won't be SPA or SUI.
You probably need about 74 points to make top3, so AUS are basically 99% in.
NZ are maybe far enough ahead of 3rd they could wrap it up by round 10 NZ and go to SF basically avoiding boats for the round robin stage. It would then be a shootout for the 3rd spot, which makes the final cut-off hard to predict currently.
That's the interesting grouping, GB FRA and DEN currently all in a slot for the final 3rd placing.
This assumes some things
-NZ hold onto their margin - if not we could see 3 teams going for the final 2 places
-Can/US need 3 almost perfect regattas to even have a whiff of a chance
-spa/Sui would need to finish mid fleet at least to stop the bubbling under teams from gaining any points
- fatal breakages ruining a regatta for anyone.
so here is my thumbsuck guess for the Top3 come SF
going from the current log and 3 events to go, the only thing we know for sure is it won't be SPA or SUI.
You probably need about 74 points to make top3, so AUS are basically 99% in.
NZ are maybe far enough ahead of 3rd they could wrap it up by round 10 NZ and go to SF basically avoiding boats for the round robin stage. It would then be a shootout for the 3rd spot, which makes the final cut-off hard to predict currently.
That's the interesting grouping, GB FRA and DEN currently all in a slot for the final 3rd placing.
This assumes some things
-NZ hold onto their margin - if not we could see 3 teams going for the final 2 places
-Can/US need 3 almost perfect regattas to even have a whiff of a chance
-spa/Sui would need to finish mid fleet at least to stop the bubbling under teams from gaining any points
- fatal breakages ruining a regatta for anyone.
so here is my thumbsuck guess for the Top3 come SF
enigmatically2
Super Anarchist
Statistically the odds favour the top 3 even more. I've run a monte Carlo simulation (10000 iterations).
Assuming there are 3 more events and top 3 qualify for grand final at end of that (is that right?) then even assuming that results to come are random (IE not assuming that current leaders are more likely to do well) then probabilities of making the top 3 are:
Aus 99.9%
NZ 87.4%
GB 51.9%
Fr 42.8%
Denmark 26.0%
Can 3.4%
US 1.0%
0 bar those
Actually as you would expect the leaders to do better the top few have even better odds than that, but it depends what model you use for that so I haven't bothered
shebeen
Super Anarchist
that's probably closer to it, but I see a major flaw if GB is 1point ahead of FRA but 9% more likely to make it.
my gut feeling is that the final will be Aus, NZ and Den.
enigmatically2
Super Anarchist
I don't think that is a flaw at all. GB are just better than 50-50 to qualify, which given they have a 1pt lead over 3rd looks right (ignoring their smaller chance of catching NZ), whereas France not only have to catch GB but also stay ahead of Den
Just to check it wasn't an a random anomaly, I re-generated with 10k new iterations and then again and again and it was pretty consistent.
enigmatically2
Super Anarchist
I think there are some teams who have seemed better in strong winds, but I'm sure it would be debated. What it does mean though is that there is larger lottery element, because we know that anyone can come a cropper with a small mistake and trash the boat
dg_sailingfan
Super Anarchist
Teams that usually perform in stronger winds: AUS, NZL, USA, GBR.
When it comes to the GBR Team there is one big Major Caveat though: Can Ainslie shake off the capsize in Mallorca with his T6 nearly completely destroyed. That would just rattle about anyone.
Yes, I know the F50 is a different boat but they are also fast and foiling.
When it comes to the GBR Team there is one big Major Caveat though: Can Ainslie shake off the capsize in Mallorca with his T6 nearly completely destroyed. That would just rattle about anyone.
Yes, I know the F50 is a different boat but they are also fast and foiling.
Tropical Madness
Super Anarchist
Predicting the most carnage ever … solid 15-20kn+ expected across all 3 days, with the final day into high 20s. Bring it on!
he b gb
Anarchist
Do they have an upper limit cutoff now that they have the smaller rigs? Hopefully not too much carnage but yeah ‘bring it on’ !
ChairborneRanger
Anarchist
Isn't there thunderstorms predicted too?
Sailbydate
Super Anarchist
Better let the, Kiwis know. They attract lightning, apparently. ;-)
ChairborneRanger
Anarchist
but lightening doesn't strike twice, does it?
