Silicon Valley Bank - tits up

veni vidi vici

Omne quod audimus est opinio, non res. Omnia videm
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dyslexic dog

Super Anarchist
3,997
413
Michigan

Voyage, can you help filter out the politics in GA. The noise becomes a bit too much and general information becomes muddled.

And that said, everyone should stop using trigger words like woke woke woke woke woke woke and any other words I deem bad. Wheres the purple marker
 

d'ranger

Super Anarchist
30,157
5,147
Age of Easy Money
Frontline doc on the Feds attempts to guide the economy. Numbers are not my forte so this was interesting and helpful to understand since if you wanted me to go comatose just start in on Quantitative Easing and Bonds effects on interest rates or vice versa. IMO it's not political other than mentioning the influence of lobbyists and the gridlock in Congress. Plenty of blame to go around there but the focus is what has been done and the results. Here is their intro blurb:

Around the country and across the world, the threat of a recession is looming and economic uncertainty is rising as markets, businesses and individuals adjust to a new reality: the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates and pulling back on its epic monetary experiment that started with the Great Financial Crisis.
From the award-winning team behind The Facebook Dilemma and Amazon Empire, the two-hour documentary Age of Easy Money investigates how the Fed’s experiment has changed the American economy and what it means that the era may be over.
 

Olsonist

Disgusting Liberal Elitist
30,938
5,228
New Oak City
Then Credit Suisse dropped another bombshell. Publishing its annual report on Tuesday, the 167-year-old bank acknowledged “material weakness” in its financial reporting, adding it had failed to adequately identify potential risks to its financial statements.


That was probably mis-translated. It should have been material wokeness in its financial reporting. We regret the confusion. Most people don't know that excessive wokeness caused the Great Depression as well as the Civil War where it prolonged slavery. Remember, only you can prevent wokeness.
 

Voyageur

Super Anarchist
5,321
1,515
On The Borderline
Voyage, can you help filter out the politics in GA. The noise becomes a bit too much and general information becomes muddled.

And that said, everyone should stop using trigger words like woke woke woke woke woke woke and any other words I deem bad. Wheres the purple marker
i had a bunch of coffee this morning and i am sofa king woke. i will try not to mix forums with tits and forums with turds.
 

Olsonist

Disgusting Liberal Elitist
30,938
5,228
New Oak City
How much is $SIVB stock worth? Well, it's not $106/share, the last price before NASDAQ de-listed them. But its shares still exist and in principle could be traded OTC. SVB had a $43B market cap as recently as last year. So investors took a bath, as they should.


TLDR, SVB shares are basically a lottery ticket for some shareholder lawsuit. There's a preference cliff whereby common gets the remainder of the last slice of the peppercorn.
 
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BeSafe

Super Anarchist
8,270
1,517
It has more steps and is fuzzier in parts, but is it very different? Won't the end result be less money going from the Fed to Treasury as a result of FDIC/Treasury taking on underwater assets at par value? Isn't that ultimately part of national debt, paid by taxpayers directly or in the form of reduced purchasing power from inflation? I'm probably missing something important, but it seems like more smoke and mirrors.

Its REALLY complicated but to a first pass, trading higher paying bonds for lower paying bonds would result in a net decrease in money heading from the Fed's balance sheet to the treasury. Yes, you're right. But the fed itself isn't suppose to be a revenue source.

One thing that makes so much of 'US monetary policy' so complicated is that is really 'the users of the currency' and not 'the American tax payers' that foot the bill. In the modern world, probably 90% of all transactions are carried out indirectly in dollars. And one of the more pernicious impacts of all of this manipulation is 'the cost of those dollars'.

A very simple example - the Chinese started buying Russian Oil in Yuan. Great - not dollars. But the Chinese wouldn't take their own yuan back for goods in exchange. They wanted either gold or more oil. That's a microcosm of what happens globally all the time. There's a million exchanges a day where the only thing BOTH parties agree on is that 'dollars are money' and everything else is bullshit. That means either directly or indirectly, both parties have to convert what they have in value into dollars, do the exchange, then convert back out again. That leads to Triffin's dilemma, which I mentioned before.

So.. printing money NORMALLY leads to inflation but when you're the global currency, NOT printing money can lead to inflation. So much of this is about confidence over time.

The US tried to dillute it's role after 2008. They know this is a problem. The hard truth, though, is the world is addicted to this system and doesn't really want it to change. Change is hard.
 
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BeSafe

Super Anarchist
8,270
1,517
Triffin is a bastard.
Yea, he is :)

One of the things that takes a bit to get your head around is that lending is inflationary, and not-lending is deflationary - if you're the country in charge of the money. But if you're NOT the country in charge of the money, then it's the opposite. That's because money is 'lent' into existence. That's why the US debt must increase with global growth.

So to combat inflation in the US, rates go up (slows down lending). To avoid risk of default, banks tighten their controls (slows down lending). But that makes the cost of dollars more expensive (since money is lent into existing and lending slows down) the the exchange you have to make to conduct trade goes up (slowing your growth prospects).

2008 was the put-up or shut up moment in so many ways - the tide went out and we got to see who was naked. Answer? Essentially everyone. Oops. The senior debt - the most valuable paper on earth - was the US 10 year and the German 10 year. When the shit hits the fan, that's money. Nothing else was money. That's not speculation - that's just the fact. And control of that resource - the manipuation of money itself - has become the single most profitable game on earth.

After 2008, the US got together with the Europeans and Japanese and started formulating a new strategy. The idea was a 'multipolar world' with the Japan/Korea/Singapore/Australia forming a block, the Europeans centered on France/Germany on the other side, and Fortress NAFTA between them. The Europeans would beef up their military forces to back up their economic muscles, France would take the diplomatic lead and Germany the financial lead. Japan would be the major decision maker in the Asian group and US would provide military muscle until a multilateral force could be negotiated. Under that model, the YEN/EURO/DOLLAR would be the 'basket of currency' so that no one currency would stick out - Triffin would be satisfied. That IS the ultimate answer - decentralized power provides resiliency. SHOCKING - I know.

Obviously, didn't happen. And here we are today. IMHO, this event is exciting but really isn't terribly important - it's just a continuation of the status quo. Consolidation of power.

Here's an odd indicator - after the next big "OMG" moment - keep an eye on JPMorgan. If there's a major financial event where they DON'T come out better than they were going in, that MIGHT be an indication of change. But as long as they keep getting bigger after every event, you know the powers that be are still in charge.
 

Borax Johnson

Anarchist
591
125
Convexity, concavity, duration. If you are involved with fixed income, you had better well know them. Chasing yield never ends well. Let the FDIC insurance limits stand or you will see a repeat of these taxpayer funded bailouts. As an old finance professor once said: "Risk and reward ride the same elevator".

As Yale Hirsch said: "Bulls make money, Bears make money and Hogs get slaughtered".
 
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