Southern Ocean Heating - re: "Irreversible" on SA headline

huey 2

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Two major events in the Southern Hemisphere

Cyclone Gabrielle New Zealand

and Cyclone Freddy Indian Ocean

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GlennP

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Simple analogy. The first poster to open this thread was apparently incredulous the southern ocean could be warmed faster than it naturally dissipates heat (over eons).

think about a tea pot on your stove. 0ne quart of water. heat on high. It boils in a few minutes. Heat on low, might take hours to boil. Same BTU’s in storage in boiling water- and same slow rate of dissipation.

but the time to boil differs by the amount of energy we put into it.

southern ocean works the same way. The only diff is the energy input is governed by the rate We saturate the atmosphere with green house gases And alter heat transfer with storms and winds aloft. We heat up the oceanic body of water, it dissipates at its own, “natural” rate.
 

kiwin

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rough stuff. for some reason I thought the water too cold to support cyclones in NZ.
NZ gets on average two EXTRA-tropical cyclones a year. That is, they are no longer tropical cyclones by the time they get to NZ. It's the same as hurricane sandy and others hitting the E and S coast of the US.
 

floater

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I'm not sure that's right. pretty sure the ocean in the southern US (80's) much warmer than NZ (70's).

perhaps it's similar to NY or MA though - and they can get hit by hurricanes. although certainly not two a year.
 

huey 2

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Forbes

TOPLINE​


A cyclone that has spent the past 31 days traversing essentially the entire length of the Indian Ocean has likely broken the world record for the longest-surviving tropical storm, according to the World Meteorological Organization, though its worst impacts to land could come this weekend.

FRANCE-OVERSEAS-LA REUNION-WEATHER-CYCLONE-FREDDY

Forecasters monitor Cyclone Freddy at the France weather station, Meteo France, in Saint Denis de la ... [+]
AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

KEY FACTS​

Cyclone Freddy was situated just off the west coast of Madagascar on Tuesday afternoon with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph—the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane in the northern hemisphere.

The storm is expected to reach potentially devastating Category 3 strength in the coming days before it makes landfall in Mozambique over the weekend—more than two weeks after it hit the southeast African country as the equivalent of a tropical storm.

PROMOTED



Freddy was first named on February 6 as it moved between Indonesia and Western Australia, before spending the next two weeks moving westward on a more than 5,000-mile long path across the Indian Ocean and eventually making its first landfall in Madagascar at Category 3 strength on February 21.

Freddy has packed major hurricane strength—Category 3 or higher—through much of its lifespan, peaking at Category 5 intensity with 165 mph winds on February 18 and 19.
The storm’s strength has oscillated at times, and it has rapidly intensified on six occasions—setting a world record.
At least 21 deaths have been reported in its two landfalls so far in Madagascar and Mozambique, where some 8,000 people have been displaced.




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Forbes Business00:1201:12

CRUCIAL QUOTE​

"At this time, it does appear to be a new record holder for 'longest-lasting' recorded tropical cyclone ... but we are continuing to monitor the situation," World Meteorological Organization researcher Randall Cerveny said in a statement. The group plans to form a committee to determine with certainty whether a record has been set after Freddy dissipates.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR​

Freddy should weaken as it moves over Mozambique this weekend, but how and when the storm will eventually dissipate remains unclear, as hurricane forecasting loses considerable accuracy beyond a timeframe of a few days. But at least one major computer model—the National Weather Service’s Global Forecast System—predicts Freddy will reemerge in the Indian Ocean early next week and restrengthen, possibly prolonging its life span for 10 days or more.

KEY BACKGROUND​

Cyclone Freddy is a rare example of a storm that crossed tropical basins, originating in the Australian region before moving into the South-West Indian Ocean—a basin which only accounts for about 11% of tropical activity worldwide, according to the Washington Post. The storm has already set a southern hemisphere record for Accumulated Cyclone Energy—a measure of the energy a storm generates throughout its lifespan—and is closing in on the world record set by Hurricane Ioke in 2006. The previous record-holder for longest-lived tropical system was Hurricane John of 1994, at 31 days.

FURTHER READING​

Cyclone Freddy teeters on brink of Category 5 strength in Indian Ocean (Washington Post)

Follow me on
Nicholas Reimann
 
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huey 2

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Freddy wont Die

....but unfortunately many other have and many displaced



 

Goodvibes

under the southern cross I stand ...
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Simple analogy. The first poster to open this thread was apparently incredulous the southern ocean could be warmed faster than it naturally dissipates heat (over eons).ook

think about a tea pot on your stove. 0ne quart of water. heat on high. It boils in a few minutes. Heat on low, might take hours to boil. Same BTU’s in storage in boiling water- and same slow rate of dissipation.

but the time to boil differs by the amount of energy we put into it.

southern ocean works the same way. The only diff is the energy input is governed by the rate We saturate the atmosphere with green house gases And alter heat transfer with storms and winds aloft. We heat up the oceanic body of water, it dissipates at its own, “natural” rate.

Nice analogy, but the dumb-fuk deniers read the shit on fakebook, sooo ....
 

CaptainAhab

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rough stuff. for some reason I thought the water too cold to support cyclones in NZ.
They are called extratropical cyclones. Take a look down at Antarctica. They are there all day every day. Huge cyclones sometimes they get as big as Australia(not exaggerating). They get big, winds max out around 75kts. The cold water keeps them from getting the high winds. The baro pressures are 945 to 965mb. Checkout the Windy website. Slap the pressure button and look down South.

New Zealand gets warm water from the Great Barrier reef. The storms usually come from the equator down.
 

floater

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They are called extratropical cyclones. Take a look down at Antarctica. They are there all day every day. Huge cyclones sometimes they get as big as Australia(not exaggerating). They get big, winds max out around 75kts. The cold water keeps them from getting the high winds. The baro pressures are 945 to 965mb. Checkout the Windy website. Slap the pressure button and look down South.

New Zealand gets warm water from the Great Barrier reef. The storms usually come from the equator down.
yeah. this was just me getting confused by the terminology. I actually got hit here, right in my backyard - literally, by a "cyclone". trees toppling. rain going sideways. spent some time peering into the roar looking for the eyewall. lol.
 
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