Southern Ocean Heating - re: "Irreversible" on SA headline

[JiffyLube]

Historically the planet's climate has been relatively stable for long periods of time, and then periodically experienced sudden or accelerating change. Weather is always changing of course.

How long are we talking here?

Yes, for many thousands of years the level of CO2 in the atmosphere was around 280+/- ppm .

The level of carbon in the atmosphere has increased to 420 ppm in the last 70 years.
Would you agree that it has increased .....whether right or wrong....it has increased?

Based on what you said I would agree that 420 is more than 280 in 70 years. Saying that, thousands of years ago mankind, including the flora and fauna, apparently was doing fine at 280, and most everything seems to be doing fine at 420 today. I wonder what the CO2 levels were like for early humans, including flora and fauna say 50,000 years ago? Was it higher or lower than today? How high or low can it go. I don't think anyone knows with certainty.

Do you agree that infrared rays (heat) pass through oxygen and nitrogen unimpeded, and that CO2 absorbs infrared rays and then radiates the heat. ? You can verify this yourself by a simple high school level experiment at home if you dont believe what is written in text books.

Since I have never studied that I can't give you an answer, but I can tell you I've been sunburned more than once.

Thus an increase in CO2 in the atmosphere of a planet being bombarded with infrared rays (aka the sun), all other things being equal, will lead to an increase in the temperature of that planet.

At what point do you think all life as we know it will die? Judging from what I have seen and experienced in my life of 75 years, I think it is still a long way off. The mankind has more to be worried about before it dies out naturally, like transhumanism which seeks to replace it.

Then, it is up to you to conclude if a increase in the temperature of the planet is right and wrong ....and who it is right or wrong for.

Time will tell.

 

[JiffyLube]

A great many scientists believe that the current climate change , characterized by rising temperatures, is caused and/or exacerbated by human activity. However you were talking about the ice age and ancient civilizations. I dont think you will find many scientists attributing the end of the dinosaurs or the end of the ice age to human activity.

To me climate change and weather are interrelated, that's just my opinion and how I understand the big picture. To scientists it is probably wrong, but I'm not a scientist. I'm a regular person that thinks in regular ways. One thing I do know as a regular person that has delt with experts is, experts are not always right. Knowing that, and being responsible for myself, I go with what makes sense to me. My instincts tell me mankind's demise will not be because of climate change, it will be from man itself.

 

[EYESAILOR]

How long are we talking here?

Based on what you said I would agree that 420 is more than 280 in 70 years. Saying that, thousands of years ago mankind, including the flora and fauna, apparently was doing fine at 280, and most everything seems to be doing fine at 420 today. I wonder what the CO2 levels were like for early humans, including flora and fauna say 50,000 years ago? Was it higher or lower than today? How high or low can it go. I don't think anyone knows with certainty.

We can go back 1,000 years from the ice core samples in the so-named Law Dome in East Antarctica. The dome was straightforward to date the various layers of ice and then they used contemporaneous bubbles of air trapped in the ice to measure the carbon content.

Scientists have subsequently gone to much greater depths in the Antarctic Vostok and EPICA Dome C with ice cores that they argue provide a composite record of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels over the past 800,000 years. That is more than we need.

Here is a graph of CO2 levels over the past 1020 years.

Since I have never studied that I can't give you an answer, but I can tell you I've been sunburned more than once.

Yeah sunburn is super painful.....especially on the soles of your feet.
Simple experiment is to take a transparent bottle of oxygen (or air) , and a transparent bottle of CO2. They will both look completely transparent.
Hold up a candle to each of them. You will be able to see the candle clearly through the oxygen bottle but not the CO2.
Hold the candle close for a while and the CO2 will get warmer than the air or oxygen.

There are many more experiments you can play with to convince yourself. Local acquariums sometimes have displays to illustrtate. CO2 molecules interrupt infrared and store and then radiate heat. Heat just passes through oxygen and nitrogen.
.

At what point do you think all life as we know it will die? Judging from what I have seen and experienced in my life of 75 years, I think it is still a long way off. The mankind has more to be worried about before it dies out naturally, like transhumanism which seeks to replace it.

Time will tell.

Personal question. Do you have kids or grandchildren?
I have two children. I love them and I dont like the logarithmic increase in carbon levels because of what they might have to face.. I am also young enough, that at current rates, it is going to go pear shaped in my lifetime. There are already places that I visited which have changed beyond recognition in my brief life. Its simple for me. I want to enjoy a good quality of life and the life around me......I dont wait for the car to finally break down before getting it fixed. I take it to have it serviced so that it runs well.

Sorry Im not familiar with transhumans. They dont sound like people I would like to meet.

 

[EYESAILOR]

To me climate change and weather are interrelated, that's just my opinion and how I understand the big picture.

They are different. Let me give you a quick example. In a couple of months, catch a flight from San Diego to Bangor, Maine. Ask yourslef if the weather just changed for the worse while you were flying....or did you fly from a Californian temperate climate to an East Coast continental climate? You get the gist. There is a connection...the climate creates the extremes in weather......some climates have moderate changes in weather others more extreme. Your choice of delightful Southern California sound slike you dont like extremes.

. I'm a regular person that thinks in regular ways. One thing I do know as a regular person that has delt with experts is, experts are not always right.

But they are not always wrong.

Knowing that, and being responsible for myself, I go with what makes sense to me. My instincts tell me mankind's demise will not be because of climate change, it will be from man itself.

There is a slight double entendre there.. I think you are saying mankinds demise will not be due to nature but to mankind itself. How do you think mankind will extinguish itself?

It will not be war. There are always survivors.

History has taught us that the great majority of extinct species become extinct due to the destruction of their environment. Unlike other species we have a lot of influence over our environment.

 

[d'ranger]

The difference between weather and climate is time. It's like that rate of change thing only different. Whoever said there is no such thing as a stupid question hasn't spent time on these forums.

 

[EYESAILOR]

Whoever said there is no such thing as a stupid question hasn't spent time on these forums.

I like to answer a question with a question.
From 1 minute mark....Ron Swanson at his finest.

 

[JiffyLube]

We can go back 1,000 years from the ice core samples in the so-named Law Dome in East Antarctica. The dome was straightforward to date the various layers of ice and then they used contemporaneous bubbles of air trapped in the ice to measure the carbon content.

Scientists have subsequently gone to much greater depths in the Antarctic Vostok and EPICA Dome C with ice cores that they argue provide a composite record of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels over the past 800,000 years. That is more than we need.

Here is a graph of CO2 levels over the past 1020 years.

That's an informative graph. Things really changed in the last two hundred years huh.

View attachment 542650


Yeah sunburn is super painful.....especially on the soles of your feet.
Simple experiment is to take a transparent bottle of oxygen (or air) , and a transparent bottle of CO2. They will both look completely transparent.
Hold up a candle to each of them. You will be able to see the candle clearly through the oxygen bottle but not the CO2.
Hold the candle close for a while and the CO2 will get warmer than the air or oxygen.

I'll have to give that try the next time I have some oxygen and CO2.

There are many more experiments you can play with to convince yourself. Local acquariums sometimes have displays to illustrtate. CO2 molecules interrupt infrared and store and then radiate heat. Heat just passes through oxygen and nitrogen.

I don't need a lot of convincing that things have been changing. I'm onboard with alternate forms of power generation, but we can't solve pollution from that yet. Maybe in your kid's lifetime.

.

Personal question. Do you have kids or grandchildren?
I have two children. I love them and I dont like the logarithmic increase in carbon levels because of what they might have to face.. I am also young enough, that at current rates, it is going to go pear shaped in my lifetime. There are already places that I visited which have changed beyond recognition in my brief life. Its simple for me. I want to enjoy a good quality of life and the life around me......I dont wait for the car to finally break down before getting it fixed. I take it to have

serviced so that it runs well.

On a personal note, I never had any kids of my own, but I have raised one like it was my own. I married twice, and both ladies had their own kids. The first one had one girl 5 years old, that I helped raise until she was 18. Then I stayed single for 18 years, The married again to a good woman with daughter in the first year of college, and a son in his last year of high school. The first girl (Now a woman) is in her middle 40s (middle of the road politics) with a married son in the military. The other young married woman is in her early 40s (Liberal to the point of radical), and the recently married son in his late 30s (probably Conservative). All adults, all with their own opinions. Two I can talk to, one I can't so I don't try. Of the many things we have talked about, I can't say I know what their thought are on the climate change issue, because it never comes up.
I understand your position on life.

Sorry Im not familiar with transhumans. They dont sound like people I would like to meet.

Transhumanism has its fans, but I'm not one of them. The same goes for DARPA's Humans 2.0. People should look them both up, as I see them as a real threat to humanity. They both want to change humans as we are now through science and technology, and they think this is the next step in the advancement of the human species. I think they are really afraid of death, and believe they can use science and technology to live forever. One way is to perfect what we call robots to match what humans can do physically, and learn how to upload the human conscious into the electronic brain of the robot, thus living forever. It sounds like science fiction, but it is being worked on as people occupy themselves with climate change. Beside those two things, we also have the World Economic Forum lead by its founder Klaus Schwab, that are working on a one world government. One slogan they have is "You will have nothing, but you will be happy." The slogan is considered fake news by many, but researching the things that Klaus Schwab talks about, makes me think of Communism. And then we have the CCP that wants to take over the world. That's why I say I think we have more pressing thing to take care of first.

Do you sail?

 

[Marty Gingras]

Transhumanism has its fans, but I'm not one of them. The same goes for DARPA's Humans 2.0.

Beside those two things, we also have the World Economic Forum lead by its founder Klaus Schwab, that are working on a one world government

And then we have the CCP that wants to take over the world.

Don't forget about Agenda 21.

 

[d'ranger]

What is George Soros? chopped liver? sheesh.

 

[EYESAILOR]

Do you sail?

I sail a lot. But not as a political statement.

 

[dogwatch]

I dont like the logarithmic increase in carbon levels

That would be (loosely) exponential. In logarithmic increase, the rate of increase reduces over time which is the opposite of what I think you mean. Sorry but Calculus 101.

 

[JiffyLube]

They are different. Let me give you a quick example. In a couple of months, catch a flight from San Diego to Bangor, Maine. Ask yourslef if the weather just changed for the worse while you were flying....or did you fly from a Californian temperate climate to an East Coast continental climate? You get the gist. There is a connection...the climate creates the extremes in weather......some climates have moderate changes in weather others more extreme. Your choice of delightful Southern California sound slike you dont like extremes.

Actually, I was born and raised in San Diego. I have traveled to a few other places outside California, but really, I have never had an interest in living anywhere else.

But they are not always wrong.

I agree.

There is a slight double entendre there.. I think you are saying mankinds demise will not be due to nature but to mankind itself. How do you think mankind will extinguish itself?

If mankind does not end because of nuclear war, it will end because of forces trying to replace humans with something we will not like.

It will not be war. There are always survivors.

What kind of survivors? A new race of humans?

History has taught us that the great majority of extinct species become extinct due to the destruction of their environment. Unlike other species we have a lot of influence over our environment.

I agree.

 

[JiffyLube]

We can go back 1,000 years from the ice core samples in the so-named Law Dome in East Antarctica. The dome was straightforward to date the various layers of ice and then they used contemporaneous bubbles of air trapped in the ice to measure the carbon content.

Scientists have subsequently gone to much greater depths in the Antarctic Vostok and EPICA Dome C with ice cores that they argue provide a composite record of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels over the past 800,000 years. That is more than we need.

Here is a graph of CO2 levels over the past 1020 years.

View attachment 542650


Yeah sunburn is super painful.....especially on the soles of your feet.
Simple experiment is to take a transparent bottle of oxygen (or air) , and a transparent bottle of CO2. They will both look completely transparent.
Hold up a candle to each of them. You will be able to see the candle clearly through the oxygen bottle but not the CO2.
Hold the candle close for a while and the CO2 will get warmer than the air or oxygen.

There are many more experiments you can play with to convince yourself. Local acquariums sometimes have displays to illustrtate. CO2 molecules interrupt infrared and store and then radiate heat. Heat just passes through oxygen and nitrogen.
.

Personal question. Do you have kids or grandchildren?
I have two children. I love them and I dont like the logarithmic increase in carbon levels because of what they might have to face.. I am also young enough, that at current rates, it is going to go pear shaped in my lifetime. There are already places that I visited which have changed beyond recognition in my brief life. Its simple for me. I want to enjoy a good quality of life and the life around me......I dont wait for the car to finally break down before getting it fixed. I take it to have it serviced so that it runs well.

Sorry Im not familiar with transhumans. They dont sound like people I would like to meet.

Did I reply to this

 

[nota]

Back in the day of the when the Egyptians were building the pyramids (assuming they were the ones that built them), artifacts of large sailing craft were unearthed in an ancient harbor that went up near one of the pyramids. That would indicate that at least 4,000 years ago the river water level was up close to the pyramids, which is about 5 miles away from the pyramids now. The Nile River either got a lot smaller, or a section of the Nile River to the pyramids dried up because of Climate Change. Then there is the Sahara Desert to ponder. How did that change from a much wetter and greener environment change? I don't even get into all the Ice Ages. No industrial revolutions in those days.

dumb
nile floods every year
that is when the boats got up by the building site
yes they did a lot in a short time when the river was at peak flood
but that is why they were there plus the flood silt renewed the growing land crops ever year

they planned for what they knew was going to happen
and did not try to fight the system but just go with the flow/floods

btw most of the core was local stone
the big stones for the grand gallery and the bright white outside covering now gone were the imports but from up river [go with the flow]

 

[jhc]

dumb
nile floods every year
that is when the boats got up by the building site
yes they did a lot in a short time when the river was at peak flood
but that is why they were there plus the flood silt renewed the growing land crops ever year

they planned for what they knew was going to happen
and did not try to fight the system but just go with the flow/floods

btw most of the core was local stone
the big stones for the grand gallery and the bright white outside covering now gone were the imports but from up river [go with the flow]

Was a harbor, marina, near the sphinx. The Nile river flooded the harbor every year until the great Aswan dam was built upriver. If you go to Giza, and the great pyramids, you will see the location of several huge vaults at the site. That is where the nile barges are entombed.
One barge was removed from it's vault, and re-assembled back in the 1960's, I believe. Was displayed in a spaceship looking museum at the pyramids until recently.

Why King Khufu's Solar Boat Is on the Move After 4,600 Years

Officials transported the pharaoh's wooden ship from the Pyramids of Giza to its new home at the Grand Egyptian Museum

www.smithsonianmag.com

The barge on display is supposed to be a royal barge, used in the ceremony to deliver a king's body to be placed in a tomb, or pyramid.

Khufu ship - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[floater]

experts. ya can't trust 'em.

kind of odd for a sailor to make this claim really. pretty sure there are sailing experts out there. I've even sailed with some..

 

[JiffyLube]

dumb
nile floods every year
that is when the boats got up by the building site
yes they did a lot in a short time when the river was at peak flood
but that is why they were there plus the flood silt renewed the growing land crops ever year

they planned for what they knew was going to happen
and did not try to fight the system but just go with the flow/floods

btw most of the core was local stone
the big stones for the grand gallery and the bright white outside covering now gone were the imports but from up river [go with the flow]

Sorry for not knowing the Nile can flood up to 5 miles (8 Kilometers) inland to the pyramids every year, along with hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses. Or did you mean it used to flood that far towards the pyramids?

 

[Jud - s/v Sputnik]

If there were never any humans on this planet, climate change would still be happening, just like it has since there was a climate to change.

Interestingly, too, there have been a lot of chrons - reversals of the earth’s magnetic poles - throughout the very, very long age of the earth (and reversals are statistically random). Who knows what’s next for us, whirring through space...

 

[Grrr...]

This article was referenced in the headline today of SA under the banner of "Irreversible". Here is an excerpt:

We used a computational global ocean circulation model to examine exactly how ocean warming has played out over the last 50 years. And we found the Southern Ocean has dominated the global absorption of heat. In fact, Southern Ocean heat uptake accounts for almost all the planet’s ocean warming, thereby controlling the rate of climate change.

This Southern Ocean warming and its associated impacts are effectively irreversible on human time scales, because it takes millennia for heat trapped deep in the ocean to be released back into the atmosphere.

This means changes happening now will be felt for generations to come – and those changes are only set to get worse, unless we can stop carbon dioxide emissions and achieve net zero.

I'm not a denier of climate change. Climate change has been never ending for millennia long before humans had any impact on the planet. What frustrates me about the above is that it implies humans can create a condition of heat absorption into the Southern Ocean over a time period of no more than 100-150 years, less than the blink of an eye in the planet's evolution. Yet it further states that same amount of heat will take millennia to be released back into the atmosphere (essentially irreversible) and we must "stop carbon dioxide emissions and achieve net zero" now. That sounds like more of a political agenda than fact based science.

Perhaps what we are seeing in the Southern Ocean started longer ago than 50 years (which is what the model above is based upon) and there is a much bigger driver of what is being recorded data wise. This is what alarms me about the climate change movement in the effort to radically change our society and technology. When you scratch hard on their "data", there's not (yet) a lot of foundation built to fully support their "facts". We all witnessed the same thing with the Covid response and there are many more examples.

Recommend taking a look at a great Op-Ed by Andy Kessler at the Wall Street Journal today called "A Faraday is Worth 1,000 Fauci's" which celebrates and contrasts the life and philosophy of Michael Faraday, the father of modern electrical theory against many modern day scientists.

Unforunately, the Wall Street Journal and *especially* their opinion pieces have gone so far right as to be scary. They largely eschew science nowadays =(. Unfortunate, because I trusted them for a long time, but within the last 10 years someone has gotten to them and they are no longer fair or equitable in their viewpoints.

I will continue to trust a "Fauci" - i.e. a scientist who has spent his entire life studying a subject, over any Op-Ed writer who thinks his opinion is more important than a scientists. The definition of 'fake news' is to believe that you have the knowledge to proclaim that people who have spent their entire lives studying a subject don't know what they are talking about.

This is the unhappy life of reality in an Anti-Science America, which has been perpetrated on the public by a combined political campaign AND by the media believing that providing an unbiased view is always providing the other side of the coin, even when the other side of the coin is a raving freaking lunatic that claims the earth is flat.

 

[JiffyLube]

Unforunately, the Wall Street Journal and *especially* their opinion pieces have gone so far right as to be scary. They largely eschew science nowadays =(. Unfortunate, because I trusted them for a long time, but within the last 10 years someone has gotten to them and they are no longer fair or equitable in their viewpoints.

I will continue to trust a "Fauci" - i.e. a scientist who has spent his entire life studying a subject, over any Op-Ed writer who thinks his opinion is more important than a scientists. The definition of 'fake news' is to believe that you have the knowledge to proclaim that people who have spent their entire lives studying a subject don't know what they are talking about.

This is the unhappy life of reality in an Anti-Science America, which has been perpetrated on the public by a combined political campaign AND by the media believing that providing an unbiased view is always providing the other side of the coin, even when the other side of the coin is a raving freaking lunatic that claims the earth is flat.

Fauci is a con man that supports dangerous research in Communist China (That by the way wants to take over the world), after he got shut down in the U.S. by President Obama when he found out what Fauci was doing. Then Fauci went behind Obama's back and found a way to continue funding dangerous gain of function research in CCP labs. Fauci couldn't care what happens to the U.S. or other free nations in the world, as long as he comes out the other end as a winner. Fauci is a traitor.