Lipstick sales, packed lunches, strippers’ tips: the unlikely signs of recession
reversecowgirl69 has been dancing for six years in clubs from Texas to New York. The graduate student and stripper tracks her income carefully, and in May 2022 she noticed it dropping: “I was noticing that there were just fewer higher-earning people coming into the club, and when that happens, you know something bad is going to happen.” She tweeted a warning: “The strip club is sadly a leading indicator and i can promise y’all we r in a recession lmao.”
The tweet went viral, and at least within her club, it seemed to be correct. Over the next few months, her earnings continued to plunge, and the other workers at the club said the same. By December – usually an excellent month for strip clubs – business “was abysmal”, and, she says, her income that month was down by half compared with the same time last year. “It was bad for everybody. I know girls who dance in Vegas and even they weren’t making money. They’re like the oracles we consult, and if Vegas girls aren’t making money, no one’s making money.”
Alan Greenspan, the former federal reserve chair, tracked another unconventional indicator: men’s underwear. Greenspan theorized that during tough economic times, people would wait longer to replace worn-out items – and men might wait the longest to swap out their underwear, the most private items we own. If Greenspan was right, we could be in trouble: industry research shows the men’s underwear market slumped during 2022, and the men’s briefs manufacturer Hanesbrands’ stock sits at just 50% of its price one year ago.
reversecowgirl69 has been dancing for six years in clubs from Texas to New York. The graduate student and stripper tracks her income carefully, and in May 2022 she noticed it dropping: “I was noticing that there were just fewer higher-earning people coming into the club, and when that happens, you know something bad is going to happen.” She tweeted a warning: “The strip club is sadly a leading indicator and i can promise y’all we r in a recession lmao.”
The tweet went viral, and at least within her club, it seemed to be correct. Over the next few months, her earnings continued to plunge, and the other workers at the club said the same. By December – usually an excellent month for strip clubs – business “was abysmal”, and, she says, her income that month was down by half compared with the same time last year. “It was bad for everybody. I know girls who dance in Vegas and even they weren’t making money. They’re like the oracles we consult, and if Vegas girls aren’t making money, no one’s making money.”
Alan Greenspan, the former federal reserve chair, tracked another unconventional indicator: men’s underwear. Greenspan theorized that during tough economic times, people would wait longer to replace worn-out items – and men might wait the longest to swap out their underwear, the most private items we own. If Greenspan was right, we could be in trouble: industry research shows the men’s underwear market slumped during 2022, and the men’s briefs manufacturer Hanesbrands’ stock sits at just 50% of its price one year ago.
