Sydney To Hobart 2018

charisma94

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Palma de Mallorca
^

Ya. Because they couldn't get hold of the RD who was in at the airport bar with his phone turned off, you're right, the bar staff at the CY's got the call from BOM, but couldn't/didn't know how to contact the RD, so the race office went with the outdated and ambigous but scheduled forecast when it was about to explode...

 
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Couta

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For private weather routers like Clouds he was already communicating his concerns to his clients pre-race, but after the start gun is not allowed to make contact with those clients under external assistance regs. He and the guys at BOM must have being going spastic through the night of the 26th seeing that the RC was totally ignorant to what was clearly unfolding.
This...^^^^...and the fact that those boats that were experiencing the reality were not sharing their experience with accurate feedback....this changed later when the extent of the disaster was better known.

Our crew were fortunate - the builders delays on the new boat resulted in a very late launch (and in our opinion insufficient sea trial period) and an executive decision to pull the pin on the race (3 weeks from start). The late call was a very tough one and meant nobody could get an alternative ride...that said, we were reimbursed by the owner and I followed the unfolding tragedy from beachside at Noosa. Our ride that year was a Farr40 OD. Our call was a good one. Subsequent sea trials and races uncovered some serious issues with the under built rudder quadrant that resulted in catastrophic steering failure...there's no way that boat should have done the 98 race. That said, if the boat had met its delivery date, I'd say we would have gone....just dumb luck.

 
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jack_sparrow

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..so the race office went with the outdated and ambigous but scheduled forecast when it was about to explode...
It wasn't outdated, it was valid as transmitted by BOM at 2.00pm an hour after the start and validated 24 hours later as experienced in true life within 10kn accuracy. The issue is that accurate 2.00 pm forecast the RC then turned into not "send reinforcements we need to advance" but send "three and four-pence. We' re going to a dance."

 
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charisma94

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Palma de Mallorca
Correct. Sadly as the civil case highlighted, the "navigator" on WChill didn't know what storm force meant. He was thinking thunder & lightening.

 
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Curious

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And David Adams, professional merchant marine officer and class winner in a singlehanded around the world race, also said in a radio interview that he didn't know what "storm force" meant, so Winston's nav was not the only one.

Arguably, the meteorological community should have been ensuring that their use of a term that means something else in everyday English in almost all circumstances did not lead to confusion. The reason we fund the BOM is to give information, not to obscure it by the use of technical jargon.

 

Crazy Cat

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Arguably, the meteorological community should have been ensuring that their use of a term that means something else in everyday English in almost all circumstances did not lead to confusion. The reason we fund the BOM is to give information, not to obscure it by the use of technical jargon.
Yet the major problem remains the RC not communicating the situation fully and clearly (including potential maximum wind speeds) to the fleet. 

Secondly, the term “storm” is simply the Beaufort measure for winds of that magnitude, surprising that any offshore navigator would misunderstand its meaning. 

 

Curious

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Sure, the RC was the issue, and since Phil threw his offsider straight under the bus in his evidence to the inquest, it's hard to feel any sympathy for him.

What Adams said may be surprising, but it's what he said.  Maybe I'm showing the fact that I did most of my offshore racing decades ago and wasn't a naviguesser, but in my experience the Beaufort scale was something that people from other places used; racing out of Sydney we usually just referred to windspeed by knots. The BoM appears to have admitted that they had a communications issue by the way they changed their windspeed information, and I stand by the comment that if you are a public service dedicated to giving vital information to the public then part of your job is to ensure that they understand it. 

As you say, the main problem was that the fleet didn't get the forecast early enough anyway.

 
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Rantifarian

Rantifarian
And David Adams, professional merchant marine officer and class winner in a singlehanded around the world race, also said in a radio interview that he didn't know what "storm force" meant, so Winston's nav was not the only one.

Arguably, the meteorological community should have been ensuring that their use of a term that means something else in everyday English in almost all circumstances did not lead to confusion. The reason we fund the BOM is to give information, not to obscure it by the use of technical jargon.
You can get onto the BoM beta testing lists and provide regular feedback to their information delivery formats pretty easily. I do a survey every month or so, with lots of space written comments. One of the first surveys I did I asked for pressure information to be included on the meteye wind forecast, with a decent paragraph explaining why it was useful for recreational marine users, and hey presto it's there now. Obviously I wasn't the only one requesting that info, but they definitely want feedback from communities like sailors

I seriously recommend some of you get involved and try and improve the service.

 
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terrafirma

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The scary thing about IB is not only are they winning their winning easily on corrected time. If the French can sail Teasing Machine well (54 Footer) they may give IB a run? The 60 footers may surprise but IB is never too far behind them. IB is a purpose built IRC racer for these conditions with a 1st class crew, they may need to trip over or have a problem on board to give some of the boats a chance. Either that or undeniable weather that suits either the bigger boats or the smaller ones IMO? 

 
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Rantifarian

Rantifarian
Anyone ever tried to get odds on a boat not yet listed by the bookies? It says others on request, just wondering it's worth the effort. 

There are some strange boats on the list, no tp52 but a Sydney 46 sailed by Russians is there

 

terrafirma

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Anyone ever tried to get odds on a boat not yet listed by the bookies? It says others on request, just wondering it's worth the effort. 

There are some strange boats on the list, no tp52 but a Sydney 46 sailed by Russians is there
Yeah usually they list all the boats but have them at the longest odds

 

Crazy Cat

New member
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What Adams said may be surprising, but it's what he said.  Maybe I'm showing the fact that I did most of my offshore racing decades ago and wasn't a naviguesser, but in my experience the Beaufort scale was something that people from other places used; racing out of Sydney we usually just referred to windspeed by knots. The BoM appears to have admitted that they had a communications issue by the way they changed their windspeed information, and I stand by the comment that if you are a public service dedicated to giving vital information to the public then part of your job is to ensure that they understand it. 

As you say, the main problem was that the fleet didn't get the forecast early enough anyway.
Fair comment Curious, I was not wishing to be at all critical of your statement of the facts. I recall in the 80’s we would phone up the weather line on Saturday mornings to be told the forecast for coastal waters and it was given in knots, but if a warning was issued it was in Beaufort terminology. No doubt at all that wind speed in knots is far more meaningful. 

 

Bill E Goat

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Big shout out to the Voodoo guys who got caught up with the RSYS club racers and went out of their way to get out of the way

 
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Crazy Cat

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Blackjack out again today, but not racing. Very quick repair job on the spreader, must be confident taking it out in 25+ knots in the harbour this afternoon. (This pic is yesterday) B4448291-804B-419C-A594-6D3623DDD06C.png

 

DickDastardly

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I don't see that the weather was "unexpected"... the deteriorating forecast was available to the Race committee but the key players were unavailable (traveling) & when they got the report once they got themselves to Hobart, they didn't understand what Storm Force winds meant and sat on their hands...

The way I read it according to the Coroner.
It was "unexpected" in that the sailors understanding of forecasts wasn't as it now is.  We simply didn't factor in +40% Factor - which is now routinely articulated.  It wasn't back then.

 
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DickDastardly

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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/2994582/Yachting-Thompson-quits.html

Abernathy said: "Thompson's inability to appreciate the problems when they arose and his inability to appreciate them at the time of giving his evidence causes me concern that he may not appreciate such problems if they arrive in the future."
Phil died a couple of years back.  Years prior to the 98 rac e Phil had been a gun crewman, boat nigel,  and deeply embedded in the scene around the CYCA.  At some point he came down with a nasty cancer and had to have an arm and shoulder amputated.  The sailing manager role was given to Phil as a way for him to earn an income and stay in the scene as he could no longer sail or work on boats.  He wasn't an educated guy, just a nice knockabout sort of bloke. He wasn't up to dealing with an emergency situation.

 
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jack_sparrow

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And David Adams, professional merchant marine officer and class winner in a singlehanded around the world race, also said in a radio interview that he didn't know what "storm force" meant, so Winston's nav was not the only one.
Probably one of the most damming things to come from the Coronial Enquiry, as representing a total ignorance in Australia of the Beaufort Scale. 

The Beaufort Scale was derived in the early 1800's and settled in the early 1900's save for subsequent adjustments to largely capture extreme events like cyclones/typhoons etc. BOM therefore by using in 1998 the category "Storm Warning" were using a term at least 100 years old. That category was delivered to the CYC one hour after the start (following a "Gale Warning" at the pre start weather briefing) and literally to the hour 24 hours later that Storm Warning transpired in reality within 5kn plus or minus. That said the term Gale Warning was not properly appreciated despite competitors having revieved weather packs describing it.

You then go on to say:

Arguably, the meteorological community should have been ensuring that their use of a term that means something else in everyday English in almost all circumstances did not lead to confusion. The reason we fund the BOM is to give information, not to obscure it by the use of technical jargon.
Well that is clearly horseshit trying to lay the blame on BOM. But maybe cottoning on you say this in a post 2 hours later acknowledging Australian sailors (but not alone outside Europe) didn't have a clue about the Beaufort Scale you say as follows. Yet you still blame BOM to the extent you invent shit by saying: "The BoM appears to have admitted that they had a communications issue by the way they changed their windspeed information.."

In probably one of the most detailed Coronial Enquiries in Australian history, yet there is no finding in that regard that BOM changed their windspeed directives as you claim. All evidence and conclusions show to the contrary that BOM were ramping their windspeed forecasts up from Christmas Day and peaked an hour after the start. The problem wasn't BOM's, the problem was their message was taken by the RC and incorrectly communicated to the fleet.

What Adams said may be surprising, but it's what he said.  Maybe I'm showing the fact that I did most of my offshore racing decades ago and wasn't a naviguesser, but in my experience the Beaufort scale was something that people from other places used; racing out of Sydney we usually just referred to windspeed by knots. The BoM appears to have admitted that they had a communications issue by the way they changed their windspeed information, and I stand by the comment that if you are a public service dedicated to giving vital information to the public then part of your job is to ensure that they understand it. 
BOM reacted to 1998 by essentialy making the Beaufort Scale more marine casual user friendly in advance of both the 1999 S2H and pre the outcome of the Coronial Enquiry in 2000. The Coroner acknowledged that where on the other hand the CYCA were still in the fetal position pre his findings over a year after the event as evidenced by continuing with the same RC in 1999. BOM to this day has not changed its reliance on the Beufort Scale for transmitting things like High Seas forecasts in line with international standards of communicating weather forecasts. 

The upside of the tragedy of 1998 is the experience has been absorbed and things implemented via education, offshore regs etc.

However my guess is you are a fuckin slow learner and still 20 years later haven't  bothered to understand the Beufort Scale and think BOM was to blame.

Here is a Xmas present for you and note the "Storm" category as forecast by BOM, transmitted an hour after the start and experienced real time 24 hours later. Compare that to the bizzare forecast somehow transmitted by the RC to competitors indicating it might be sporty and telling the media this is record breaking weather. WTF.

images (78).jpeg

 
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terrafirma

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Melbourne
Zen TP52 owner Gordon Ketelbey telling us how to balance the books at the end of the month. Don't know much about their crew and their chances of doing well in this race? When you look at the Ichi Ban crew it's hard to rank the rest of the 52's in some sort of order if they have the sweet handicap spot? I'm looking forward to seeing Teasing Machine 3 and their hot shot French crew race against all the 52's. The blood is starting to warm now..............




 
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