Sydney to Hobart 2019

[Twocan]

Maverick into 2nd place on handicap overall. DSS and the Gilmour Brothers smoking... Comanche need to get to Tasman Island sooner rather than later. My predictions put them at the Derwent with bugger all breeze. If they can get there an hour sooner then that may be all the difference? TENSE TIMES....! 

Maverick on a massive charge but will it be all in vain if they get parked up?! Best S2H in a long time!

 

[terrafirma]

From last years race..

 

[Jason AUS]

Sorry, but it is a sailing term. I think I first read it in a 1980s book by... Dennis Conner!   :lol:  

Slam dunk is not originally a sailing term.... you ever seen any of them tall fellas what play with basketballs? 

 

[The Dark Knight]

Yeah my predictions and based on the Windy forecast is they could be parked in the Derwent. Do you mean LH ? What is LO? 

P.S. Both Windy and Predict Wind show a parking lot after 6am in the Derwent Region

My comment was aimed at the "fight for the minor placings"......

LO is just a brain fade..... 

 

[Rainbow Spirit]

The flood tide in Hobart peaks around 10am tomorrow morning, so Comanche will have a window to finish by then, after that...

 

[Schakel]

Scallywag and Blackjack within sight of each other.

 

[10thTonner]

9 hours ago, boomer said:

Fast forwarded to the infraction.

Typical, btw, that Seven cuts away from the copter view just when it gets interesting for a sailing audience, and gives us some meaningless, distorted “onboard action” instead. The whole discussion wouldn’t be here, had they made the cut ten seconds later. 

 

[boomer]

Seven's coverage actually confirmed, even though they switched to an onboard view - what's fairly obvious to most, it was a perfectly executed leebow.

 

[podrick]

All waiting for The Indian to gybe

 

[Mr. Coventry]

She has

 

[nq66]

gybed

 

[[email protected]]

More breeze than I'd have guessed. 32-37 knots N @Maria Isl, and NNE 29-36 @ Tasman Island.... Much less inshore, but far from a glass out.

 

[Redreuben]

The ABC described the super maxi battle as a game of cat and mouse. 
I would have thought cowboys and Indians a closer analogy.

 

[LionessRacing]

Progressing the tracker, the Wind will carry Commanche in a building breeze to the corner and then nicely across Storm bay.

Unless there's a major deviation from forecast (and it's been surprisingly predictive for the last 30 hrs) or a breakdown, this is all over but the fanboy bleating. 

Nicely done.

Setup to take a careful start,

run away building separation to the East,

finesses the transistions

 and then pure power across Bass Strait with a gybe to favorable angle to the corner while your competition is on the wrong gybe. 

 

[jack_sparrow]

One quick post for insight. For first 2 dozen boats great day around 20k and increasing with only spoiler it backing left as the day wore on, now close to Nth. Pretty weird having 100 footers only around 4 hours in front and even weirder WOXI at the back. A collapsing front is moving through west to east with compression between the two systems pushing the breeze up getting closer to the corner. Currently gusting 40k+ NNE at Tasman Is. That weak front should go through Tasman Is after daybreak ahead of a light northerly in Storm Bay followed by a fresh SW change late morning. Looks as though the skinny boats will be taking time out of Comanche this morning on approach to the Pot so the Indians delta at the corner will probably be the decider. My guess it will be too big with BJ #2 second year in a row.

My other guess is Tattersalls looks good for Ichi as that southerly and lighter conditions on east coast will slow those down behind except back markers. Alive in with a chance for the rare double of 2 years running if the Derwent comes into play late late tomorrow to hold Ichi out .  

Out.

 

[woahboy]

Progressing the tracker, the Wind will carry Commanche in a building breeze to the corner and then nicely across Storm bay.

Unless there's a major deviation from forecast (and it's been surprisingly predictive for the last 30 hrs) or a breakdown, this is all over but the fanboy bleating. 

Nicely done.

Setup to take a careful start,

run away building separation to the East,

finesses the transistions

 and then pure power across Bass Strait with a gybe to favorable angle to the corner while your competition is on the wrong gybe. 

Stan’s the man. As well as the rest of the crew.

 

[LionessRacing]

Info Track should gybe in about 15 min and the others about an hour. Meanwhile Commanche is sailing 100% VMG for the corner while they make their Easting with only ~34% VMG (sin of 20 degrees, BTW = 230, they are on 160 COG)  or 14 nm an hour delta 

Look for a time difference at corner of about 90 min to WOXI, perhaps an hour for Infotrack 

 

[dolphinmaster]

The Aussies must be fighting the hour and the hops,  ......  Info flopped over headed to the corner

 

[Horn Rock]

Injun extending away.

 

[dolphinmaster]

Injun extending away.

20 miles on Info and 30+ on the others,   will it be enough?