I disagree with you on this regarding the Italians.They won races with a slower boat last time. Their high mode was quite deadly until Burling and Co figured out how to avoid it. They were easily the best challenger. They will improve on their last effort, making them formidable. I wouldn't be writing the Italians off. They have to be the favoured team to challenge at this early stage.
I expect a strong and improved effort from AM who were fast in a breeze, but had weaknesses in light air. They will remedy those issues.
You never quite know what we're going to get with the Brits, but I wouldn't be writing them off either. Even they had a little purple patch last time where they looked quite likely.
I think Alinghi are up against it starting so far back. Ditto the French.
Basically every single Team has to start from scratch given that we have the Cyclors or Cyclists back on board which requires different systems.
Yes, the Kiwis had Bikes in 2017 but that was 6 years ago.