The 2018 Golden Globe Race

bucc5062

Super Anarchist
2,042
217
United States
I suppose it's entirely possible that Kopar could pass Susie at some point and finish less than 24 hours ahead of her, so that penalty could wind up mattering in the end.  Particularly if Uku has a barnacle farm and the both catch him.

I'm curious to see when Susie weighs anchor.  8-10 hours from now, she's be venturing out after the worst of it, but still in 25-30 kts with presumably some ugly gusts.  16-20 hours from now, she could go out in more like 20-25.  Probably a full day from now if she wants to depart in less than 20.

Wave conditions look pretty bad even beyond another day, though, even if she stays somewhat in Tasmania's lee.

In the meantime, I'm also wondering if Kopar will be able to head for Hobart sooner versus later than Susie's departure.  On the one hand, it's more protected in there so sailing conditions will be more reasonable sooner...  On the other hand, Susie can go almost directly to open ocean whereas Kopar must navigate safely in tight quarters, so she can presumably accept more breeze at her departure time than him.
Looking at just the wind, sooner would be better for after 24 hours it starts to fade quickly and she may not want to be caught in that.  It seems like the waves would be stern quartering on the way out which could make for a rolly period, but she could also make good time ahead of Kopar who would still need to get to Hobart.  Tough call, but I think she's got the grit and has learned some from the last blow to handle conditions as they slide away from her.

 

jack_sparrow

Super Anarchist
37,393
5,094
Don't know about this hideout concept. 

If the French maths teacher was in Suzie's position, do you think he would hang back, or keep going?

 
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Cuffy

New member
The French maths teacher would be going.

Do we know what he uses as storm tactics? Interesting that with these boats keep going appears to be the better strategy.

 

littlechay

Super Anarchist
1,205
657
Nelson
Susie wants to give up.  Don't know why Uku dived south the forecast was never terrible for staying north. 





 



 

Golden Globe Race











 







8 hrshttps://www.facebook.com/goldenglob...y4fW8uJthPrLDNBfxJuhwJtNiuC0sW8&__tn__=-R · 











Latest satellite Tweets from the GGR fleet !! #GGR2018

Tapio : SHORTENING PROACTIVELY,STAYSAIL 1/2 ROLLED,3RD REEF,BACK2BUNK /
"Réduisant pro-activement, trinquette 1/2 enroulée, 3ème ris, retour dans ma couchette"

...See morehttps://www.facebook.com/goldengloberace/posts/2157292024524184


Latest satellite Tweets from the GGR fleet !! #GGR2018

Tapio : SHORTENING PROACTIVELY,STAYSAIL 1/2 ROLLED,3RD REEF,BACK2BUNK /
"Réduisant pro-activement, trinquette 1/2 enroulée, 3ème ris, retour dans ma couchette"

Jean-Luc: November is here! Léquivalent of may home eole lesaitjespere /
"November is here! the equivalent of May for us EOLE knows it i hope"

Susie : JUSTWANNAGIVEUP /
"just want to give up"

Uku : ALL OK. 
1f642.png
:)  /
" it's all right. 
1f642.png
:)  "

Tapio : REEF4(EQUALS TRYSAIL),1/6STAYSAIL,STORM JIB,PLOUGHING ENE, OK /
"Ris 4 (équivalent voile tempête), 1/6 trinquette, tourmentin, naviguant ENE, OK"

Igor : ESMERALDA OK 

Coconut : NOTE ABANDONED VESSEL AIS OPERATING,MY AIS ALARM at APROX 2NM /
"to note ship abandoned ais operating, my alarm ais at approx 2 NM"

Jean-Luc: it's a little too bad! It was perfect 170 miles in 24 hours. I /
"It's softening a little what a shame! IT WAS PERFECT 170MILLES IN 24H.I"

Mark Slats: GOOD SAILING HERE BEST OFF LUCK FOR TAPIO AND UKU H /
"good navigation here, best of luck to tapio and uku h"

Tapio : IMPRESSIVE SCENERY IN THE SUN, STRONGEST YET 2 COME, BARO RSNG /
"impressive landscape in the sun, the strongest yet to come, baro rsng"

 

tama_manu

Member
422
44
SF Bay
Sure looks like Uku would be safer if he didn't have to observe the seemingly arbitrary waypoint off NZ.


I wonder if Uku will be allowed to ignore the Snares Island waypoint without penalty? He is already South of it and 200 miles West and heading further South to try and avoid the worst of the Storm. I am sure the RO will have told him to go South.
It seems like the RO likes to put a lot points on the map.  If the justification for this point was for safety, it doesn't seem to be working.

 

littlechay

Super Anarchist
1,205
657
Nelson
Susie wants to give up.  Don't know why Uku dived south the forecast was never terrible for staying north. 
Having a closer look. It looks as if Uku will be close to Snares Is. when he gets the worst of the weather. At least being down there he has sea room; provided he doesn't hit the island. Looks like he'll get 40 knots or so so should be fine. 

 

harrygee

Member
393
122
Tasmania
Istvan is in Dover, which is probably closer to being a port than Recherche would have been.  Dover has many moorings, jetty, fish-farm infrastructure.

Recherche offers better protection for the westerlies we've been getting but he's maybe thinking ahead - getting out of Recherche in the current conditions can be pretty daunting.

Conditions now are good in the channel and navigating is not challenging, apart from the Middleton beacon, which is well charted and a conspicuous red mark (to port).  If he moved now, he'd have a choice of good anchorages close to his rendezvous with Don.

Susie will be going through mental gymnastics, snug in a good anchorage and faced with having to get out there, where four of her peers have been rolled/dismasted/injured.

The most exposed weather station on our southern coast is Maatsuyker Island, which gives a pretty good indication of conditions, though it suffers from a bit of compression so wind speed and gusts are exaggerated somewhat.  Not a lot.  Maatsuyker had up to70 knots last night.

 

harrygee

Member
393
122
Tasmania
Susie making a middle of the night escape. I wish her well.
That would have taken some mental prodding.  Snug in a cosey anchorage, black night, forty knots and a washing-machine sea until she got well out.

Tough lady, good on her.

Istvan is making his way up the channel, which is going to be a slow beat until later this afternoon.

 

jack_sparrow

Super Anarchist
37,393
5,094
I just noticed an interesting stat roll over. Heede has now stretched his lead over Slats to 2,000 mile, 1,400 of that since rounding the Cape Town marker. That's not only a class act but begs the question... is there anyone out there not in this race who could match him?

 
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jack_sparrow

Super Anarchist
37,393
5,094
^^^ No matter how good they are.. dunno whether too many youngsters can cop 7 months at the wheel.

Of grey haired brigade I would put Loïck Peyron up as a contender. 

At the other end of the spectrum starting in 3 minutes..btw he is in this race in a 35 yo timber tri.


 
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Left Shift

Super Anarchist
10,528
3,275
Seattle
The clear distinction is that VDH is professional in his approach.  His "magic" is that he understands and is intense in preparation and a close reading of the rules and the limitations of the platform.  Add experience and he is 

Desjoyeaux, Peyron, MacArthur, Joyon.  There are a large number of potential - mostly French - sailors who could emulate VDH. But, frankly, why would they.  

This race proves nothing and makes no advances.  No lessons learned, other than that, beyond a doubt, that naval architecture and sailing have advanced dramatically since 1968.  

Other than:  Boats that can get out their own way are safer and.... don't sail backwards.

 

Moonduster

Super Anarchist
4,823
231
This race arbitrary progression, subject to the arbitrary and often contradictory whims of a self-aggrandizing narcissist, proves nothing and makes no advances.

 


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