The Boiling Pacific...Getting pretty active. Tropical Wx

[DryArmour]

The Eastern and Central Pacific are as active as I can recall over the last 20 years. A generally moist environment is increasing the chance for tropical storm development. Two areas are of particular interest at the moment. One 800 mi SSE of the Big Island of Hawaii is marginally likely to turn into something that requires watching. The second area is just east 140 degrees west and is already showing some rotation and cloud tops near the center are cold to very cold. Some SW shear is slowing rapid development for the moment. Both systems are moving generally westward @10-15mph. If you live in the Hawaiian Islands or are traveling there in the next week pay attention to the weather and local notifications. The Sea Surface temperatures are also much warmer than the average over the last 20 years and getting warmer and spreading northward.

 

[msvphoto]

So, does this mean we get more rain in California this winter? Selfish, I admit, but I want to be able to sail my Laser and Hobie at the currently empty Huntington Lake and be able to wash down my Wilderness 30 in Santa Cruz harbor without less guilt. Forcasters are saying we're maybe in for a big rain El Nino winter, but who knows?

That does look like a lot of weather happening on that there map.

 

[EarthBM]

Local water temp in Dana point had been running 5F above recent averages since May, but has dropped to the average in the last two weeks.

The big temperature anomaly has been at the southern tip of Baja... Probably +7-9F

 

[DryArmour]

Local water temp in Dana point had been running 5F above recent averages since May, but has dropped to the average in the last two weeks.

The big temperature anomaly has been at the southern tip of Baja... Probably +7-9F

When the monsoonal flow returns the water temps will quickly go back up in So Cal waters. Give it 10 days...

 

[Ishmael]

Is this going to have any major effect on the northern Pacific (north of Hawaii, anyhow)? We're doing a delivery of one of the Pac Cup boats from Oahu to the PNW.

 

[DryArmour]

If it were me I would be exceptionally cautious this year. The entire North Pacific is potentially more volatile than usual. Get dependable weather information for sure.

 

[weightless]

 

[couchsurfer]

.

....just read a report of 60mph winds hitting Cabo this morning--seems like something of a surprise!.

...Mark,,,I know it's hard to do it ALL,,,please include the Mex folks in your forecasts when possible

http://forums.bajanomad.com/viewthread.php?tid=74671

 

[chris3dl]

If it were me I would be exceptionally cautious this year. The entire North Pacific is potentially more volatile than usual. Get dependable weather information for sure.

+1

 

[sidmon]

Some actually objective data.....

http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php

http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/index.php?eID=tx_cms_showpic&file=uploads%2Fpics%2FCYCLONE3.JPG&md5=7970c84272c79e25ead0780dc1c56bb999caa3f1&parameters[0]=YTo0OntzOjU6IndpZHRoIjtzOjQ6IjgwMG0iO3M6NjoiaGVpZ2h0IjtzOjM6IjYw&parameters[1]=MCI7czo3OiJib2R5VGFnIjtzOjQyOiI8Ym9keSBiZ0NvbG9yPSIjZmZmZmZmIiBz&parameters[2]=dHlsZT0ibWFyZ2luOjA7Ij4iO3M6NDoid3JhcCI7czozNzoiPGEgaHJlZj0iamF2&parameters[3]=YXNjcmlwdDpjbG9zZSgpOyI%2BIHwgPC9hPiI7fQ%3D%3D

 

[BGeff]

This is something from last week here in Michigan that mentions El Nino.

http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2014/07/does_lack_of_90_degree_days_th.html

And here is the link about it imbedded within the article

http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2014/07/michigans_upcoming_winter_may.html

Has this changed in what you are seeing Dry Armour? What affects you all in the Pacific region eventually makes its way here in some form or another.

 

[sidmon]

As usual, Clean can't seem to get it all right.

The article he cited on the front page is dated from May, and hypes up the prospects of a [gasp] SUPER EL NINO! [add shock horror and renting of garments here]...

Only issue is, there was much compelling evidence that this year's El Nino event would be a weak one out there that many of the AGW (aka ClimateChange/Disruption) crowd ignored.

After all, there is Consensus (there isn't), about the "Settled Science" (it's not), that the planet is about to burn down and the oceans boil away (no time in the next few millenniums or so it appears).

http://judithcurry.com/2014/04/14/el-nino-watch/

Well, here we are several months later and this is where things stand:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-25/el-nino-seen-weak-or-delayed-for-several-months-by-forecasters.html

El Nino will probably develop as a weak event in late summer or early fall in the Northern Hemisphere, according to MDA Weather Services, while Commodity Weather Group LLC said it may be delayed for several months as the warming of the Pacific Ocean slows. Palm oil futures fell.

So Clean, why don't you put that up your Modoki.

 

[sidmon]

What affects you all in the Pacific region eventually makes its way here in some form or another.

Pretty good article here from the WashPo on just that subject:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/07/10/winter-2014-15-a-way-too-early-look-at-a-cold-and-snowy-possibility-in-d-c/

 

[sidmon]

Also, lets keep the warming trend in SST's in historical perspective. When you say "boiling" you are engaging in needless -and misleading- hyperbole. First off SST's are generally shown as calculated during the "satellite era" which dates back to only 1979. And, as can be seen...is up by a "BOILING" .3 -three tenths- of a degree Celsius:

And the extended reconstruction of SST's looks like this:

Source:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/marineocean-data/extended-reconstructed-sea-surface-temperature-ersst-v3b

 

[BGeff]

What affects you all in the Pacific region eventually makes its way here in some form or another.

Pretty good article here from the WashPo on just that subject:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/07/10/winter-2014-15-a-way-too-early-look-at-a-cold-and-snowy-possibility-in-d-c/

That is an interesting and informative article. Thanks for the post.

 

[sidmon]

Since that cheesy "super storm" sci flick is out, "validating" fears that the planet is in the throes of "EXTREME!" unprecedented weather events (its not), perhaps its a good idea to keep Global Cyclone Activity in perspective (sorry I cant get to the latest map updated today so this is from March):

 

[Raz'r]

Umm, I think boiling refers to the image of a cumulonimbus from the side. In this case many of then

 

[sidmon]

If the sun's intensity has increased do to sun spots or a weakened magnetic field, it is affecting the earth as a whole.

How will this mean anything more than "HEAT" for So Cal?

It means you will die.

Please send all of the particulars of your current bank accounts and other financial holdings to me ASAP(I will PM you with my Bangalore address).

Sidmon

 

[sidmon]

If the sun's intensity has increased do to sun spots or a weakened magnetic field, it is affecting the earth as a whole.

How will this mean anything more than "HEAT" for So Cal?

It means you will die.

Please send all of the particulars of your current bank accounts and other financial holdings to me ASAP(I will PM you with my Bangalore address).

Sidmon

GO POUND SAND. or whatever you have in Chicago.

Oh come now Dawg...Chicago will be the new Mauritius...All turquoise reef water, fair weather cummies overhead, and a beach full of oiled Euro-Titties...In February.

No point in you holding on to that cash when lucky anarchists who have had the good sense not to settle in a reconstituted desert could put it to good use after you've turned into a raisin!!!