The Boiling Pacific...Getting pretty active. Tropical Wx

[weightless]

GFS is now putting Julio closer to the islands on some runs though the consensus has moved back N a bit, and NHC has identified Julio as an annular storm.

With few outer bands and a symmetric structure around the eye,Julio now appears to have become an annular hurricane, much likeIselle in the same general area a few days ago. While guidanceis generally showing a steady or quick weakening, these hurricanesare known to be more resilent to marginal environments than most.Since little change is expected to the SSTs or shear for the nextday or so, it makes sense to go above the model guidance at thattime with the current annular structure, and the NHC prediction israised from the previous one.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/080247.shtml?

 

[weightless]

Although looking to miss the islands well to the N, the models are a bit divergent after Sunday. The southern outliers still bring Julio close to the state.

 

[Maxx Baqustae]

Er....the end of the red track is pointing at the Salish Sea? I assume that's along, along way away.

 

[weightless]

^^^ Yes. very long range Julio is supposed to hook up with a low on the normal storm route that will go up and around the Pacific High. The dots are 12 hour intervals.

I just linked WU's graphics. They update when the browser loads the page. I notice that they've lost the ensemble now. Its scatter was mostly to the S of the single GFS line that it is showing now.

 

[Maxx Baqustae]

^^^ Yes. very long range Julio is supposed to hook up with a low on the normal storm route that will go up and around the Pacific High. The dots are 12 hour intervals.

Thank you. But that's what I thought. And thanks for the fact the dots are 12 hour otherwise we'd be at Labor day or so.

 

[DryArmour]

Anyone going to Cabo the week of August 20th? Could be interesting.

 

[weightless]

Rescue underway for sailboat caught in Hurricane Julio

http://www.uscgnews.com/go/doc/4007/2221730/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+uscgnews%2FURhB+%28New+Releases%29

Sailing vessel Walkabout is disabled and taking on water with three people aboard. On-scene conditions are reported as 92 to 115 mph winds with 30-foot seas. One of the hatches has blown away and onboard bilge pumps are unable to keep up with the flooding. The vessel's life raft has also been blown overboard.

At 7:15 a.m., watchstanders at the Joint Rescue Coordination Center in Honolulu received notification from the International Emergency Response Coordination Center in Texas that an alert message was received from Walkabout requesting Coast Guard assistance.

JRCC diverted an airplane from the National Hurricane Center, Teal 76, from inside Hurricane Julio to locate the vessel and establish VHF radio communications.

At 10:49 a.m., Teal 76 reported Mayday calls being broadcast from Walkabout.

An HC-130 Hercules airplane crew launched from Air Station Barbers Point at 11:10 a.m. to deliver a life raft and relieve Teal 76.

The 661-foot container ship Manukai diverted and is enroute to the location of the sailboat.

 

[Innocent Bystander]

Rescue underway for sailboat caught in Hurricane Julio

http://www.uscgnews.com/go/doc/4007/2221730/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+uscgnews%2FURhB+%28New+Releases%29

Sailing vessel Walkabout is disabled and taking on water with three people aboard. On-scene conditions are reported as 92 to 115 mph winds with 30-foot seas. One of the hatches has blown away and onboard bilge pumps are unable to keep up with the flooding. The vessel's life raft has also been blown overboard.

At 7:15 a.m., watchstanders at the Joint Rescue Coordination Center in Honolulu received notification from the International Emergency Response Coordination Center in Texas that an alert message was received from Walkabout requesting Coast Guard assistance.

JRCC diverted an airplane from the National Hurricane Center, Teal 76, from inside Hurricane Julio to locate the vessel and establish VHF radio communications.

At 10:49 a.m., Teal 76 reported Mayday calls being broadcast from Walkabout.

An HC-130 Hercules airplane crew launched from Air Station Barbers Point at 11:10 a.m. to deliver a life raft and relieve Teal 76.

The 661-foot container ship Manukai diverted and is enroute to the location of the sailboat.

USCG Photo. Something like 414NM NE of Oahu.

Anybody know the boat?

 

[weightless]

GFS has the next wave producing lows that track close to Hawaii next week. Much to early to believe in any specific way, of course. Just a hint at the possible shape of things.

 

[couchsurfer]

Anyone going to Cabo the week of August 20th? Could be interesting.

.

......please keep us informed!

 

[soling2003]

X2. As new systems are being born

 

[Ned]

Nice, should make for some interesting excavation work next week.

 

[couchsurfer]

Anyone going to Cabo the week of August 20th? Could be interesting.

.

....you're referring to TS '11E'...or something else?

 

[CowboyKell]

Uh, yes I am. Gonna be good surf?? Need me to smuggle some shirts down??

 

[DryArmour]

Anyone going to Cabo the week of August 20th? Could be interesting.

.

....you're referring to TS '11E'...or something else?

You mean Tropical Storm Karina?

While we are on the subject...Julio is one crazy hurricane. Hundreds of miles north of Hawaii and still cranking along. That is definitely not normal...

 

[couchsurfer]

Anyone going to Cabo the week of August 20th? Could be interesting.

.

....you're referring to TS '11E'...or something else?

You mean Tropical Storm Karina?

While we are on the subject...Julio is one crazy hurricane. Hundreds of miles north of Hawaii and still cranking along. That is definitely not normal...

.

....un-named when I got the information.... any update?

Tropical Storm 11 E......... Looks like the tenth named storm of the eastern Pacific is getting ready to go public; should gain strength and power for a named storm, and yet again, set to sail due west from the Generator area. Should send surf and wave north, but Baja is dodging bullets

 

[weightless]

^^^NHC says "Karina" so I guess it's official: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

Should be a new wave in the E Pac around the 22nd~23rd which may spawn a low that travels more towards Baja.

GFS is still noodling around with a low forming SE of the Hawaiian Islands but isn't sure what to do with it yet.

 

[LSue]

Rescue underway for sailboat caught in Hurricane Julio

http://www.uscgnews.com/go/doc/4007/2221730/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+uscgnews%2FURhB+%28New+Releases%29

Sailing vessel Walkabout is disabled and taking on water with three people aboard. On-scene conditions are reported as 92 to 115 mph winds with 30-foot seas. One of the hatches has blown away and onboard bilge pumps are unable to keep up with the flooding. The vessel's life raft has also been blown overboard.

At 7:15 a.m., watchstanders at the Joint Rescue Coordination Center in Honolulu received notification from the International Emergency Response Coordination Center in Texas that an alert message was received from Walkabout requesting Coast Guard assistance.

JRCC diverted an airplane from the National Hurricane Center, Teal 76, from inside Hurricane Julio to locate the vessel and establish VHF radio communications.

At 10:49 a.m., Teal 76 reported Mayday calls being broadcast from Walkabout.

An HC-130 Hercules airplane crew launched from Air Station Barbers Point at 11:10 a.m. to deliver a life raft and relieve Teal 76.

The 661-foot container ship Manukai diverted and is enroute to the location of the sailboat.

USCG Photo. Something like 414NM NE of Oahu.

Anybody know the boat?

see the thread titled "42 Sailboat foundering off Hawaii" over in Crusing Anarchy. Same boat name.

 

[soling2003]

Generator got here today about two hours after we got power. Still plenty of people here without. Plenty of batteries sent by family too. So we are all set for karina or whoever is next.

Thanks guys for keeping us informed on what is happening out there. You do a much better job than the mainstream media, which I can't see on tv yet.

 

[DryArmour]

Generator got here today about two hours after we got power. Still plenty of people here without. Plenty of batteries sent by family too. So we are all set for karina or whoever is next.

Thanks guys for keeping us informed on what is happening out there. You do a much better job than the mainstream media, which I can't see on tv yet.

Where are you located exactly? Will keep an eye on future systems and update here where you can actually see it when the power is out.