The Indian variant is racing through the UK

EYESAILOR

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Why get into the weeds on individual variants?

The virus will mutate. The more infectious mutations will grow at the expense of less efficient variants.  

 

LionessRacing

Super Anarchist
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Myrtle Beach,
Why get into the weeds on individual variants?

The virus will mutate. The more infectious mutations will grow at the expense of less efficient variants.  
And the less mortal mutations will grow at the expense of the more, regressing to a high rate of spread of a slower/less fatal disease.

Tracking the patterns of mutation and spread may give insight, though with the politicization of both domestic and international policies, regarding behaviors and vaccinations one might argue that to be for naught.

Understanding that the Sino-vaccines seem to be rather ineffective, and especially so against some variants might be well worth knowing, if you were the recipient thereof. Believing that the mRNA approach has a wider efficacy to likely mutation may be a moral hazard.

 

slug zitski

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Why get into the weeds on individual variants?

The virus will mutate. The more infectious mutations will grow at the expense of less efficient variants.  
Because each of the major variants are Covid second wave phenomenon that can be tracked back to poor government decisions

covid is far from over ,

You can presently   observe the rapid reopening in Southern Europe .... with only  partial vaccination

mistakes will be made all over again 

 
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EYESAILOR

Super Anarchist
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Because each of the major variants are Covid second wave phenomenon that can be tracked back to poor government decisions

covid is far from over ,

You can presently   observe the rapid reopening in Southern Europe .... with only  partial vaccination

mistakes will be made all over again 
Agreed. And only way to prevent variants emerging that are potentially more infectious is to reach a level of vaccination in as short a time frame as possible.   The world cannot stay "closed" for ever and the opportunity to throttle the disease by lock downs has passed.   We just have to roll the vaccine out as quickly as possible and not get lulled into a false sense of security as this wave passes.

 

LionessRacing

Super Anarchist
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Myrtle Beach,
This is not a given. 
Do the math... if you have a variant that kills/incapacitates it's host more quickly, it will spread less, than one that is slower or less debilitating.

Same rather macarbe logic that in a war of attrition, you don't want to kill the opponent, you want to wound them, so that you inflict a higher total cost, requiring the enemy to care for the wounded, rather than just replace them.

 

IStream

Super Anarchist
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Do the math... if you have a variant that kills/incapacitates it's host more quickly, it will spread less, than one that is slower or less debilitating.

Same rather macarbe logic that in a war of attrition, you don't want to kill the opponent, you want to wound them, so that you inflict a higher total cost, requiring the enemy to care for the wounded, rather than just replace them.
The math is complicated. Yes, a quickly fatal virus will tend to compete less effectively but you can have a more deadly virus that is also more infectious. For example, it's entirely possible for a variant to evolve that has a longer asymptomatic period during which someone is still infectious. If that variant is also good at evading the immune system early in the course of the disease, the body might not react until the virus is pervasive and leads to a fatal cytokine storm. 

 

EYESAILOR

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UK cases continuing to go the wrong direction. They had more cases in the UK than we had in the US yesterday. The number of cases among the young is high with the case rate of 0-19 year olds six times that of 60+, case rate of 20-39 year olds is highest of all at 180/100,000 vs 65/100,000 for 40-59 year olds.

This is disappointing given progress UK has made on vaccination. However the tilt towards the young by the disease may reflect that vaccine rate is much higher in above 50 year olds as UK rolled out vaccine by age groups starting with oldest and working down.   The delta variant is clearly better at spreading than the original alpha variant as it now accounts for 94% of all cases.

Thus early indications are that cases are picking up because Delta is somewhat more infectious but this is constrained by vaccination.  IE Acceleration among the non-vaccinated offset by greater number of people who are vaccinated.  

No conclusive evidence that Delta has a higher mortality rate but that is obscured somewhat by the age tilt versus previous waves.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/28/covid-uk-coronavirus-cases-deaths-and-vaccinations-today

 

slug zitski

Super Anarchist
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UK cases continuing to go the wrong direction. They had more cases in the UK than we had in the US yesterday. The number of cases among the young is high with the case rate of 0-19 year olds six times that of 60+, case rate of 20-39 year olds is highest of all at 180/100,000 vs 65/100,000 for 40-59 year olds.

This is disappointing given progress UK has made on vaccination. However the tilt towards the young by the disease may reflect that vaccine rate is much higher in above 50 year olds as UK rolled out vaccine by age groups starting with oldest and working down.   The delta variant is clearly better at spreading than the original alpha variant as it now accounts for 94% of all cases.

Thus early indications are that cases are picking up because Delta is somewhat more infectious but this is constrained by vaccination.  IE Acceleration among the non-vaccinated offset by greater number of people who are vaccinated.  

No conclusive evidence that Delta has a higher mortality rate but that is obscured somewhat by the age tilt versus previous waves.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/28/covid-uk-coronavirus-cases-deaths-and-vaccinations-today
In the USA , for political reasons , they have drastically reduced testing 

dont believe any USA numbers 

 

EYESAILOR

Super Anarchist
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In the USA , for political reasons , they have drastically reduced testing 

dont believe any USA numbers 
Hi Slug,

How does politics affect testing?   If somebody needs a test they can still go and get a test. Tests have always been voluntary here. If you feel unwell and/or suspect CV19...you go for a test. Now perhaps there is greater complacency and people are going for less tests.

 

d'ranger

Super Anarchist
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The vaccine is very available now, got a text from Kroger yesterday to just show up and get it. Age 12 and up. So those who care have been vaccinated and as pointed out above won't be getting tested. Those who aren't getting the vaccine either don't believe in it or just don't care so won't be getting tested unless required to do so. 

Yeah, it's another political conspiracy.

 

TheDragon

Super Anarchist
And now we have the Delta Plus variant, first detected in Nepal, which as the name implies is the Delta variant with an extra mutation, E417N, which is the same worrisome mutation in the South African, now Beta, variant that somewhat enables immune evasion. About 40 cases in the UK so far, hope the double vaccinated can still deal with it. As an evolutionary biologist, this whole story is fascinating.

 

The Q

Super Anarchist
UK cases continuing to go the wrong direction. They had more cases in the UK than we had in the US yesterday. The number of cases among the young is high with the case rate of 0-19 year olds six times that of 60+, case rate of 20-39 year olds is highest of all at 180/100,000 vs 65/100,000 for 40-59 year olds.

This is disappointing given progress UK has made on vaccination. However the tilt towards the young by the disease may reflect that vaccine rate is much higher in above 50 year olds as UK rolled out vaccine by age groups starting with oldest and working down.   The delta variant is clearly better at spreading than the original alpha variant as it now accounts for 94% of all cases.
The UK vaccination rate for all above age 18 is roughly:

80% all have had at least 1 Jab,

60% have have had 2 jabs.

They opened jabs to all adults last week, applications for jabs were running at 6..... Per second...

 

slug zitski

Super Anarchist
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Hi Slug,

How does politics affect testing?   If somebody needs a test they can still go and get a test. Tests have always been voluntary here. If you feel unwell and/or suspect CV19...you go for a test. Now perhaps there is greater complacency and people are going for less tests.
The more testing , the more cases 

if you want to win the battle stop testing 

testing has fallen over 50 percent since the election 

the same with deaths 

every time you open the paper Covid death rates are revised downward 

Soon death by stroke , heart attack ...will reappear in the public health record 

The miracle of modern science 

3568A168-6E34-47B4-8869-2F5B3BEA8C5A.png

5746F9FA-F029-46DE-B239-4E54B164BAD9.jpeg

 

Kate short for Bob

Super Anarchist
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The more testing , the more cases 

if you want to win the battle stop testing 
Yep and with the vaccination programme the possibility of more false positives increases.  A recently published study found that 50% of PCR testing during the UK third wave were false positives.

Two reasons why the increasing number of false positives - testing protocols tend to call for an increase in the number of PCR replication cycles when a sample is negative at 23 cycles.  So replication cycles are increased to 35 and lo and behold a positive is produced which is likely caused by a viral fragment or as has happened from other rhinoviruses such as the common cold.

Some scientists believe the so called 4th wave in the UK supposedly caused by Delta (India) variant is beleaguered by false positives.  This is reflected in the fact that hospitalisation and mortality rates are significantly lower even though the variant is supposed to more deadly!  The CFR's and IFR's don't just change downwards by that much so it points to more false positives in the testing.

That aside you would think that Governments would redirect limited resources away from testing and towards their vaccination programmes.
 

 

Kate short for Bob

Super Anarchist
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random. said:
Do you have trouble reading to the end of sentences Randumb? 

Or is it you intention to deliberately misinform by:

  • extracting incomplete quotes;
  • republishing with reference to the context of the original quote;
  • deliberately altering the text to convey a different meaning i.e. falsifying;
  • posting pictures that have no relevance to the original quotes and whose veracity and currency is questionable;
  • attributing to multiple sources that you infer are one when in fact they are not.

Goebbels would have been proud of you as a student.

  •  
 

Kate short for Bob

Super Anarchist
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544
Wasting your time now @random. - you are obviously a one trick pony of extremely low intelligence.  So to the ignore list you shall go.  Actually I think you are the only one on my ignore list!

 

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