mathystuff
Super Anarchist
- 1,243
- 864
Yeah Guyot seems fucked atm
The Ocean Race 2023 leg 2: Cabo Verde to Capetown
- Thread starter Herman
- Start date
despacio avenue
Super Anarchist
Guyot reported its spinnaker had torn to pieces and they literally had to stop the boat to retrieve the pieces, some of which were wrapped around the foil.
terrafirma
Super Anarchist
The express train to Capetown is leaving shortly. This is anyone's race.
Fiji Bitter
I love Fiji Bitter
Searching for dirt on Desjoyeaux, I remembered this episode on SA, of the 1st leg to Cape Town in 2014. Here just one interesting page, FYI.
https://forums.sailinganarchy.com/threads/vor-2014-15-leg-1.159536/page-51
2,769 posts, just for leg 1, with all the old boys posting, and quite a few of them still posting here too!
It also shows the pitfalls, right to the finish.
Just saying...
https://forums.sailinganarchy.com/threads/vor-2014-15-leg-1.159536/page-51
2,769 posts, just for leg 1, with all the old boys posting, and quite a few of them still posting here too!
It also shows the pitfalls, right to the finish.
Just saying...
terrafirma
Super Anarchist
Guyot will be disappointed looks like they missed the train and surrendered their lead big time. Biotherm the current leader but Holcim and 11th hour look to be in a better position and going faster.
TheDragon
Super Anarchist
I think they have all hopped on the train, but whether they can stay on it for five days is the question. And then an abrupt halt just short of Cape Town to cross the high pressure ridge that will bring us nice SEasters all week for good kitesurfing on Table Bay.
Here is our forecast for the week from Windguru, nothing on the weekend after that.
Here is our forecast for the week from Windguru, nothing on the weekend after that.
Schakel
Dayboat sailor
South is king. North is heading to a windgap.
Guyot Envorinnement Team Euope is last because they navigated too much west.
Malizia is back in the race, remarkable.
Sci-Fi, Charlie and crew have done well with course management and placing themselves where they want to be right now. More then likely sailing big, too, and driving on the foils, but so are most the rest of the crews. A very tight race, this could be a compelling race till the end.
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Swanno
Super Anarchist
This leg still has a few nasty twists and turns in It. It looks as if the low will slip away and there a nasty period of nothing then 30 knots on the nose as they approach cape town.
oceangeek
Member
11th hour now furthest south and furthest east and leading, with fastest speeds over the last 4 hours and currently. They gotta be happy with that! I expect they will continue to push south as they can, to set up a reach into Cape Town on the last day.
Guyot definitely missed the train, but with the ridge just before the finish, they still have hope that some luck will find them. I don't think it will, though.
Guyot definitely missed the train, but with the ridge just before the finish, they still have hope that some luck will find them. I don't think it will, though.
Btw, I really think that their providential new foils, performance/speed wise, are really among the bestest.
Obviously their reliability is the question, it still needs to be tested.
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Herman
Super Anarchist
- Thread starter
- #275
Weather routing Feb 5th
First of all a very big thank you to Nick @Expedition for offering to sponsor an Expedition weather routing license. Open CPN did crash regularly as I was trying to push it to the max with Wx routing with global professional racing. But Open CPN freeware is intended for cruising. I'm very happy to have the right sharp tool for the job.
So in the past 2 days I have been studying very hard on Expedition and trying stuff out. How to import/generate/convert GRIBs, boat positions, sat pics, polars. A steep learning curve, but I got the show on the road. And still a lot to explore in the coming time. So here we go.
Input
Pic 1 has the big pic with Brazilian Navy synoptic chart 00 UTC today, unedited.
Pic 2 has the Aviation Weather - Sat Images Infrared-NWS-color - B1 @ 08:20 UTC.
Pic 3 has GFS wind barbs added @ 1200 UTC. The LP alley can be seen at work in the bottom part of the screenshot.
Pic 4 has Wx routing and GFS wind barbs. Clearly can be seen that the fleet has to navigate between the hammer and the anvil, aka the cold front at the Brazilian coast with 2 connected LP zones south west of the cold front and the St Helena high. Guyot, as routed 3 days earlier by me, is still projected to cut the corner compared to the other boats.
Pic 5 Moving further in the forecast the coming 2 days in order to see if and how boats catch that LP zone to their south shows that the forecast alternates the location of that LP moving west-east, and east-west. I'm not confident that GFS has got this situation accurate. A lot will depend on the mark 2 eyeball on the boats checking the clouds and barometer imho. In the morning of Feb 7th a more stable situation is projected.
Pic 6 has the fleet heading more or less directly to Capetown around Thu 9th early hours. As can be seen from the projected boat positions this is going to be a hell of a ride. As Guyot is projected to head to Capetown from higher latitude than the other 4 boats, she will gain again on the pack of 4. Going south and then back north again is a double whammy in miles for the pack- but all for VMG.
Pic 7 has the Wx table. ETA 12th before midnight. Four boats projected to finish within 1 hour, again. Guyot which stays further from the LP has less wind and pressure, but stays more north than the pack, is projected to arrive 5 hrs after the pack.
So with the wobbly location of that LP anything can happen, but chances are high that Guyot won't be the leg winner. Taking no bets on the winner yet.
PIC 1
PIC 2
PIC 3
PIC 4
PIC 5
PIC 6
PIC 7
First of all a very big thank you to Nick @Expedition for offering to sponsor an Expedition weather routing license. Open CPN did crash regularly as I was trying to push it to the max with Wx routing with global professional racing. But Open CPN freeware is intended for cruising. I'm very happy to have the right sharp tool for the job.
So in the past 2 days I have been studying very hard on Expedition and trying stuff out. How to import/generate/convert GRIBs, boat positions, sat pics, polars. A steep learning curve, but I got the show on the road. And still a lot to explore in the coming time. So here we go.
Input
- Polars IMOCA 60 @ 110% for the 4 new boats and IMOCA 2015 generation polars for Guyot. Guyot ripped their spinaker so I leave their polar "as is" for now.
- GFS 0,25 degrees with 3 hr intervals and WW3 for waves.
- Boats locations 11:40 UTC.
- 3 hr calculations.
Pic 1 has the big pic with Brazilian Navy synoptic chart 00 UTC today, unedited.
Pic 2 has the Aviation Weather - Sat Images Infrared-NWS-color - B1 @ 08:20 UTC.
Pic 3 has GFS wind barbs added @ 1200 UTC. The LP alley can be seen at work in the bottom part of the screenshot.
Pic 4 has Wx routing and GFS wind barbs. Clearly can be seen that the fleet has to navigate between the hammer and the anvil, aka the cold front at the Brazilian coast with 2 connected LP zones south west of the cold front and the St Helena high. Guyot, as routed 3 days earlier by me, is still projected to cut the corner compared to the other boats.
Pic 5 Moving further in the forecast the coming 2 days in order to see if and how boats catch that LP zone to their south shows that the forecast alternates the location of that LP moving west-east, and east-west. I'm not confident that GFS has got this situation accurate. A lot will depend on the mark 2 eyeball on the boats checking the clouds and barometer imho. In the morning of Feb 7th a more stable situation is projected.
Pic 6 has the fleet heading more or less directly to Capetown around Thu 9th early hours. As can be seen from the projected boat positions this is going to be a hell of a ride. As Guyot is projected to head to Capetown from higher latitude than the other 4 boats, she will gain again on the pack of 4. Going south and then back north again is a double whammy in miles for the pack- but all for VMG.
Pic 7 has the Wx table. ETA 12th before midnight. Four boats projected to finish within 1 hour, again. Guyot which stays further from the LP has less wind and pressure, but stays more north than the pack, is projected to arrive 5 hrs after the pack.
So with the wobbly location of that LP anything can happen, but chances are high that Guyot won't be the leg winner. Taking no bets on the winner yet.
PIC 1
PIC 2
PIC 3
PIC 4
PIC 5
PIC 6
PIC 7
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Schakel
Dayboat sailor
The most of the fleet, except for Biotherm, turned south.
@ Herman,
I literally just registered (after following SA for over 10 years) to say thanks for the great information you provide once again on this race. It is very much appreciated! So much more fun to follow offshore races with your analysis.
dg_sailingfan
Super Anarchist
Here we go:
Private Battle between 11th Hour Racing Team and HOLCIM-PRB has emerged yet again.
Going to be an interesting 2,300 nm or so to Cape Town.
Holcim looked pretty good downwind in Leg 1. How good are they on the reach towards Cape Town? Do they have the legs to unsurb 11th Hour?
IF 11th Hour beats Holcim both Teams will be Joint First on the Overall Leaderboard with 9 Points, the Tie however is broken by the virtue of 11th Hour having finished ahead of Holcim in the Alicante In-Port-Race.
IF Holcim however beats 11th Hour the Swiss Team will have 10 Points and 11th Hour 8.
Private Battle between 11th Hour Racing Team and HOLCIM-PRB has emerged yet again.
Going to be an interesting 2,300 nm or so to Cape Town.
Holcim looked pretty good downwind in Leg 1. How good are they on the reach towards Cape Town? Do they have the legs to unsurb 11th Hour?
IF 11th Hour beats Holcim both Teams will be Joint First on the Overall Leaderboard with 9 Points, the Tie however is broken by the virtue of 11th Hour having finished ahead of Holcim in the Alicante In-Port-Race.
IF Holcim however beats 11th Hour the Swiss Team will have 10 Points and 11th Hour 8.
I always find moments like this fascinating in ocean racing, you’ve got 4 boats in sight of each other with over 2000nm to the finish.
Do you cover the competition and treat it like a round the cans inshore race, or have the confidence in your routing & strategy to go your own way?
Would love to listen in to some of the navigation & tactics discussions on board!
Do you cover the competition and treat it like a round the cans inshore race, or have the confidence in your routing & strategy to go your own way?
Would love to listen in to some of the navigation & tactics discussions on board!
