The Ocean Race 2023 leg 2: Cabo Verde to Capetown
- Thread starter Herman
- Start date
Schakel
Dayboat sailor
Here they are; right on the express train as you predicted.
Top 4 are within each other sight. Guyot is somewhat behind. They have problems with their spinnakker. They are at 17 knots while the rest is doing 24 knots.
https://www.theoceanrace.com/en/news/13370_GUYOT-environnement-Team-Europe-recover-torn-spinnaker
Video of the recovery of the torn spinnaker;
mathystuff
Super Anarchist
- 1,261
- 894
Malizia being a rocketship in those conditions while struggling in the light really shows how different she is to the other boats.
shebeen
Super Anarchist
Correct, our beercan wed sailing this week includes a lighted sailpast and a free case of beer to celebrate.
She has been in port for about a month with some repairs, but looks like shae has moved from the YC to the V&A, where all the TOR action is. I had to watch the documentary again to celebrate.
I don't think this freight train goes all the way to the final station. Teams will still head south, as the expected situation once they get within 500nm should be what we see in gr10 geography
Herman
Super Anarchist
- Thread starter
- #306
Weather routing Feb 6th
Input
Pic 1 has the big pic with Brazilian Navy synoptic chart 00 UTC (edited to de-clutter) plus Wx projections done yesterday @ 1140 UTC.
Pic 2 has the same, but zoomed in. Both pics have the 00 UTC boat locations extrapolated from 11:40 UTC yesterday to 0730 today.
As can be seen the 2nd LP which I called "wobbly" yesterday popped up with the cold front. This was forcing the boats to go east this morning.
Pic 3 has the Sat IR for 07 UTC plus GFS & boats 0730. Boats going east.
After doing some elaborate testing with various GRIB files I ended up with using LuckGrib again. As the boats have moved east in the morning and now gybed south I have run a new routing for 1130 UTC.
See pic 4 for the 1130 UTC boats and Sat IR 1140 UTC and Wx zoomed. The pack is projected to go SSE. They currently are going south, indicating that the forecasted wind direction is not accurate.
Pic 5 has the projection for Feb 7th 12 UTC with GFS wind overlay. The second LP southwest of that cold front in pic 1 (the left LP +/- 830 nm from the pack) is projected to dissolve in the coming day and a halve. With limited impact on the fleet. So no quick taxi.
Pic 6 Projection of the pack finally gybing to Capetown.
Pic 7 has the whole routing. The pack is projected to go south to 45 degrees latitude in order to get a ride from a LP. Guyot to cut the corner at the Gough Island latitude.
Pic 8 has the Wx table. 4 boats projected within half an hour. ETA still in the evening of Feb 12th.
Stil not taking any bets who wins. But I like it that Maliza keeps getting the 1st spot in the past 2 days. Malizia is currently in 2nd rank with a 1.2 nm DTL. Very firmly back in the pack. Remember their DTL was > 225 nm a couple of days ago. It ain't over until the fat lady sings in Capetown.
And as there is currently a small high pressure zone projected just before the pack gets near Capetown (St Helena HP coming back from her lunch), anything could happen again, just before the finish. See pic 9.
Pic 1 the big pic 00 UTC
Pic 2 zoomed at the cold front pushing the boats east
Pic 3 Sat IR 00 UTC
Pic 4 Sat IR 1140 UTC and Wx routing
Pic 5 LP dissolving @ 7th 12 UTC - see the red arrow for the remnants according to GFS
Pic 6 Gybe to Capetown
Pic 7 Wx routing
Pic 8 Wx table
Pic 9 HP zone in front of Capetown
Input
- LuckGrib GFS 0.25 x 0.25 degrees resolution; 1 hr interval for today and 3 hr intervals after that up to Feb 7th 21 UTC; 6 hr intervals after that; WW3 waves.
- 0730 UTC boat positions for the first pics; 1130 UTC after that.
- Significant wave height set to max 5 meter (was 6 meter).
- Max TWS upwind 40 kts (was 50 kts) - will tweak further.
- Max TWS downwind 50 kts - will tweak further.
- Polars unchanged.
Pic 1 has the big pic with Brazilian Navy synoptic chart 00 UTC (edited to de-clutter) plus Wx projections done yesterday @ 1140 UTC.
Pic 2 has the same, but zoomed in. Both pics have the 00 UTC boat locations extrapolated from 11:40 UTC yesterday to 0730 today.
As can be seen the 2nd LP which I called "wobbly" yesterday popped up with the cold front. This was forcing the boats to go east this morning.
Pic 3 has the Sat IR for 07 UTC plus GFS & boats 0730. Boats going east.
After doing some elaborate testing with various GRIB files I ended up with using LuckGrib again. As the boats have moved east in the morning and now gybed south I have run a new routing for 1130 UTC.
See pic 4 for the 1130 UTC boats and Sat IR 1140 UTC and Wx zoomed. The pack is projected to go SSE. They currently are going south, indicating that the forecasted wind direction is not accurate.
Pic 5 has the projection for Feb 7th 12 UTC with GFS wind overlay. The second LP southwest of that cold front in pic 1 (the left LP +/- 830 nm from the pack) is projected to dissolve in the coming day and a halve. With limited impact on the fleet. So no quick taxi.
Pic 6 Projection of the pack finally gybing to Capetown.
Pic 7 has the whole routing. The pack is projected to go south to 45 degrees latitude in order to get a ride from a LP. Guyot to cut the corner at the Gough Island latitude.
Pic 8 has the Wx table. 4 boats projected within half an hour. ETA still in the evening of Feb 12th.
Stil not taking any bets who wins. But I like it that Maliza keeps getting the 1st spot in the past 2 days. Malizia is currently in 2nd rank with a 1.2 nm DTL. Very firmly back in the pack. Remember their DTL was > 225 nm a couple of days ago. It ain't over until the fat lady sings in Capetown.
And as there is currently a small high pressure zone projected just before the pack gets near Capetown (St Helena HP coming back from her lunch), anything could happen again, just before the finish. See pic 9.
Pic 1 the big pic 00 UTC
Pic 2 zoomed at the cold front pushing the boats east
Pic 3 Sat IR 00 UTC
Pic 4 Sat IR 1140 UTC and Wx routing
Pic 5 LP dissolving @ 7th 12 UTC - see the red arrow for the remnants according to GFS
Pic 6 Gybe to Capetown
Pic 7 Wx routing
Pic 8 Wx table
Pic 9 HP zone in front of Capetown
sunol
Member
- 152
- 75
Wow. 10 minutes between the top 3 boats.
Regarding Malizia and their performance……
MONDAY FEBRUARY 6, 2023
As expected, at the 1100 sched his morning, 11th Hour Racing Team has gybed to push further south, moving into second position on the leaderboard behind Holcim-PRB, who are now showing as 7nm ahead, with Malizia just behind the French team. The downwind speed of the latter is impressive and to have worked their way back to the front of the fleet just shows the potential of the German-flagged team. It’s going to be a battle all the way to Cape Town as the boats push as far south as they can while having to keep north of the Race-imposed ‘ice gates’ as seen in red on the tracker.
Update from Amory Ross this morning:
You’ll probably notice the updates are going to get a little shorter between here and Cape Town as the winds build. At 22 knots we’re back in the class of sailing on these IMOCAs where absolutely nothing is easy. Even walking (technically crawling) around is hard so you can imagine typing and editing. Apologies in advance!
Our zigzag to the south and to the east continues, with the rest of the fleet following a similar path. As we circumnavigate this High there are going to be variances in wind strength and direction, and those shifts aren’t always going to line up, so we’ll have to decide whether to prioritize the shift or the stronger winds. Downwind in these building seas and building winds the boat seems much more content in 23 knots than it does in 20. A little more pressure gives us a lot more speed and the race to Cape Town from here is a lot about speed – speed which nobody has more of than Malizia!
We saw their downwind potential first in Alicante when they came from miles back during the practice race to roll us, and Holcim too if they had the runway, and then we saw it again in the last days of Leg 1. This is clearly their sweet spot and we can hear their footsteps loudly. The same with Holcim who has taken a big chunk out of our lead overnight with a few really smart shifts. Great boats, great sailors … these last five or six days are going to be a battle that really tests both.
Onboard life is changing, too. Yesterday’s abundant sunshine and blazing heat changed overnight with cooler temperatures and cloudy skies this morning. I doubt anyone will complain. It has been a long few weeks of a damp, humid and hot boat, and everyone’s tired of sweating all day. How cold it gets as we continue south is anyone’s guess, so I may be eating my words
MONDAY FEBRUARY 6, 2023
1100 UTC DISTANCE TO FINISH: 2,009.3 NAUTICAL MILES
SPEED: 24.5 KNOTS
As expected, at the 1100 sched his morning, 11th Hour Racing Team has gybed to push further south, moving into second position on the leaderboard behind Holcim-PRB, who are now showing as 7nm ahead, with Malizia just behind the French team. The downwind speed of the latter is impressive and to have worked their way back to the front of the fleet just shows the potential of the German-flagged team. It’s going to be a battle all the way to Cape Town as the boats push as far south as they can while having to keep north of the Race-imposed ‘ice gates’ as seen in red on the tracker.Update from Amory Ross this morning:
You’ll probably notice the updates are going to get a little shorter between here and Cape Town as the winds build. At 22 knots we’re back in the class of sailing on these IMOCAs where absolutely nothing is easy. Even walking (technically crawling) around is hard so you can imagine typing and editing. Apologies in advance!
Our zigzag to the south and to the east continues, with the rest of the fleet following a similar path. As we circumnavigate this High there are going to be variances in wind strength and direction, and those shifts aren’t always going to line up, so we’ll have to decide whether to prioritize the shift or the stronger winds. Downwind in these building seas and building winds the boat seems much more content in 23 knots than it does in 20. A little more pressure gives us a lot more speed and the race to Cape Town from here is a lot about speed – speed which nobody has more of than Malizia!
We saw their downwind potential first in Alicante when they came from miles back during the practice race to roll us, and Holcim too if they had the runway, and then we saw it again in the last days of Leg 1. This is clearly their sweet spot and we can hear their footsteps loudly. The same with Holcim who has taken a big chunk out of our lead overnight with a few really smart shifts. Great boats, great sailors … these last five or six days are going to be a battle that really tests both.
Onboard life is changing, too. Yesterday’s abundant sunshine and blazing heat changed overnight with cooler temperatures and cloudy skies this morning. I doubt anyone will complain. It has been a long few weeks of a damp, humid and hot boat, and everyone’s tired of sweating all day. How cold it gets as we continue south is anyone’s guess, so I may be eating my words
Schakel
Dayboat sailor
That is impossible but true.
Funniest thing is they are heading south, What @Herman predictited.
West is king in my humble opinion.
Malaliza has most AC technology aboard that's why in the end they have a chance to win.
Still vote for 11 hours racing, Charlie Dalin.
PRB is runner up. INHO.
It is likely the text output file from Yellow Brick imported into Expedition. Better analysis options, less bandwidth.
Hitchhiker
Hoopy Frood
For sure. But, as I noted I cannot find the link to the yb race. Anyone here know what it is?
What kind of AC-tech are you referring to?
[email protected]
Super Anarchist
AmsterdamCanalSailor
New member
I'm afraid they'll turn to Tristan any moment now. Hard to sail by without enjoying the nightlife. :-(
