The Ocean Race 2023 leg 2: Cabo Verde to Capetown

Schakel

Dayboat sailor
They do not afaik.
So they go staight to cape town according to the orthodrome grand circle?
Just avoiding the doldrums? Not sure, but we'll see.
Orthondrone.jpg
 

Herman

Super Anarchist
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So they go staight to cape town according to the orthodrome grand circle?
Just avoiding the doldrums? Not sure, but we'll see.
View attachment 570303
Hi Schakel I'm not sure what your point is. I was referring to your "slingshot by tradewinds" statement. As the stable & powerful tradewinds have gone out to lunch it seems, there is no slingshot. Boat speeds are around 14 kts atm, reaching. Which is rather slow for an IMOCA.
 

Fabricensis

Member
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107
Weather seems to be very unsteady in the south atlantic right now

Comparing the progonses for 12 pm on Feb 5th for ECMWF and GFS there might be very different lines

ECMWF:
1674815938501.png



GFS:
1674815901688.png
 

Fabricensis

Member
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107
Also of note: both models agree that a window will open through the doldrums late on monday, with more wind the more west you go, so im assuming the field will race west almost to the coast of brazil
 

Herman

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Weather routing Jan 27th

The big picture is in pic 1 with Brazilian navy synoptic overlay (00UTC). They seem to use GFS isolines for pressure I noted. I have manually removed most of the METAR zone lines in order to de-clutter the screen. The ITCZ is plotted in orange lines. In the southern Atlantic we have 3 HP zones marked "A" and 3 LP zones marked "B".

Pic 2 has the NOAA IR NWS colour layer added indicating the cloud activity. And GFS wind barbs 00 UTC added too. As can be seen, the boats are getting closer to the ITCZ and related clouds above the equator.

Pic 3 has the weather routing for Biotherm using a GFS Luck rib file with 3 hr timesteps up to Jan 31st. On that date and afterwards the wind forecast is twice a day. Routing has been pushed to the west. Ilha de Fernando de Noronha could be now on the menu.

Hitching a ride with a LP zone/storm in thew southern Atlantic still on the menu, see the where the projected track turns from green (smooth for crew) to red (bumpy ride for crew). With apparent wind speeds of 25 kts.

Had some trouble with the ETA calculation of the other 4 boats and will try to solve that tomorrow.

Pic 1 the big picture Jan 27th.png


Pic 2 IR NWS color and GFS wind barbs 00 UTC.png


Pic 3 routing Biotherm Jan 27th.png
 

Herman

Super Anarchist
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The Netherlands
Weather seems to be very unsteady in the south atlantic right now

Comparing the progonses for 12 pm on Feb 5th for ECMWF and GFS there might be very different lines

Indeed. The weather in the southern Atlantic is relative more dynamic than the more or less stable trades usually found above Cabo Verde. Which makes it harder to capture.

The 90 hours plus forecast for GFS and ECMWF do differ on exact details when flipping between the two.

ECMWF
1674828154669.png


GFS
1674828199394.png
 

dg_sailingfan

Super Anarchist
3,578
989
Augsburg
@Herman
The Reason the Weather is more unstable in the South Atlantic is BECAUSE the Leg down to Cape Town is run during a different time of the year compared to previous Editions of the Race.

In 2014/2015 Leg 1 from Alicante to Cape Town was contested during October/November
In 2017/2018 Leg 2 from Lisbon to Cape Town were run during the Month of November.

Now we are in January, in the middle of the Summer in the Southern Hemisphere.
 

Herman

Super Anarchist
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1,958
The Netherlands
The Reason the Weather is more unstable in the South Atlantic is BECAUSE the Leg down to Cape Town is run during a different time of the year compared to previous Editions of the Race.

In 2014/2015 Leg 1 from Alicante to Cape Town was contested during October/November
In 2017/2018 Leg 2 from Lisbon to Cape Town were run during the Month of November.

Now we are in January, in the middle of the Summer in the Southern Hemisphere.
TOR had to fit the race more than a year before the VG is starting Nov 2024. Because the VG NOR requires in article 9 a strict qualification to enter (bold font is mine);

"To be qualified, each Skipper-boat pair of the VG 2024 shall have taken the start of at least two solo races (including one in 2022 or 2023 AND one in 2024. AND have finished with a ranking in at least one of these two races."

So an IMOCA skipper participating in the TOR 23 AND in the VG 24 requires that the skipper does at least 1 race in 2024, finishing with a ranking. Or come back to the next edition of VG. Assuming that that skipper finished in 2022 also with a ranking, as he is busy in 2023 with the TOR.

So this applies to Boris Herrmann, Kevin Escoffier and Benjamin Dutreux AFAIK.

Also the postponement due to covid-19 did not help either, limiting earlier options.
 

Schakel

Dayboat sailor
Perhaps Herman misunderstood your slingshot question.
No one goes the rhumbline VMG route anymore, like in the old days.
Ask him the question again, in Double Dutch if you like.
No he didn't; in his framework prediction he has the same slingshot route as with the Fernandho de Coronha waypoint.
And they are heading that way.
Ocean race etape 2 4.jpg
 

sunol

Member
152
75
11th Hour going better in the slow stuff than I would have thought. I guess they are carrying the kite. I assume their J3 is still gone, so maybe decision to bring the kite was probably an easier one.
I say that, but tbh, not actually sure what the rules are on how many sails they can bring?
 
Watching the tracks, Biotherm seems to be sailing lower angles while 11th Hour is higher and a bit faster. So far, I think Biotherm might be a little faster down the track on this leg.
 

terrafirma

Super Anarchist
7,794
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Melbourne
Malizia must be feeling really frustrated right now, much slower than the other boats, presumably once again due to their "banana" shape optimized for much heavier conditions. They will need to win both legs 3 and 5 to make up for the deficits in the other legs.
Malizia way off the Pace. Even though it's still early the prognosis for them isn't great. History shows if a boat is off the pace or too extreme it doesn't end well. Having said that Team Guyot are now in the lead but a long way to go.
 
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