Tom O'Keefe
Super Anarchist
Guyot are closer to Rum line. But, Biotherm are in the lead to the traditional path south. I'd still rather bein Biotherm's location than any other. That's why I asked about what happened last leg.
The Ocean Race 2023 leg 2: Cabo Verde to Capetown
- Thread starter Herman
- Start date
despacio avenue
Super Anarchist
According to Kevin Escoffier on the posted video, the boats are allowed to carry 8 sails.
Schakel
Dayboat sailor
11 th hour racing and Holcim PRB match-racing in the middle of the Atlantic.
1.1 nM distance between the two
1.1 nM distance between the two
dg_sailingfan
Super Anarchist
Once again that so-called Super Team 11th Hour Racing with Navigator Simon Fisher gets outsmarted by HOLCIM-PRB and Escoffier/Goodchild.
According to the 09.00am UTC Tracker Update today HOLCIM-PRB are now about a mile dead in front of 11th Hour.
Don't get me wrong but I think Simon Fisher or SiFi has lost his juice here.
wonderbrom
Member
- 76
- 56
am Ende kackt die Ente
LeoV
Super Anarchist
Still more then 4000 miles to go, and delta distance 25 miles between the first 4. No time for harsh conclusions yet.
Nice to have a race in January going on.
Nice to have a race in January going on.
I guess since the finish time is irrelevant they might just as well go for a flyer.
Herman
Super Anarchist
- Thread starter
- #91
Weather routing Jan 28th
The big picture is in pic 1 with Brazilian navy synoptic overlay (00UTC). I have manually removed most of the METAR zone lines in order to de-clutter the screen. The ITCZ is plotted in orange lines. Compared to the location of yesterday, the ITCZ is more or less stationary. In the middle it moved a bit south (+/- 25 nm).
Pic 2 has the NOAA IR NWS colour layer added indicating the cloud activity @ 00 UTC. Zoomed in to the 1040 UTC boat positions. Biotherm is less than 187 nm north of the very high clouds aka north side of the ITCZ. The blue and red colored clouds indicate colder / higher clouds which you want to avoid if possible. These can primarily be seen closer to Brazilian and African coasts.
Pic 3 has added GFS wind barbs @ 12 UTC from the 06UTC run.
The fleet has been dispersing in the past days. And different strategies are clearly emerging for crossing the ITCZ. The fleet is +/- 208 nm dispersed west to east. Do not follow the leader but pick a strategy / lane. Very interesting choices.
Malizia is by far the most western boat and has thus firmly invested in the west. With +/- 105 nm additional longitude compared to 11th Hr and Holcim-PRB.
On the other side of the fleet Guyot has firmly stayed east, closer to the rhumbline from Cabo Verde to Capetown. Malizia and Guyout are +/- 208 nm separately by longitude. And +/- 264 nm laterally.
The top-3 boats are still relatively close to each other, max distance is laterally 26 nm between 11th hr and current leader Biotherm. And positioned between the flanking Malizia and Guyot.
To put the obvious; only the top-3 are enjoying the same weather and Malizia and Guyot enjoy separate wind and pressure. This opens up also opportunities.
So which strategy (west – middle - east) is the fast lane?
Computing with 3 hr timesteps calculation for GFS 16 days ahead 1,25 degrees resolution and 06UTC run gives an interesting answer.
Pic 4 has the weather routing for the 5 boats. Malizia clearly projected far more to the west than the other 4 boats that all follow more or less the same route.
Pic 5 has the ETA table which indicates that for the top-4 boats their finish is projected within one (!) hour @ Feb 11th in the evening. Malizia projected a day and a half later @ Feb 13th early hours. All boats still projected to enjoy a LP ride eastward. But as Malizia is projected to drop off very quickly from the LP compared to the other 4, with following less winds than for the pack, she is projected to bleed a considerable additional amount of miles. See pic 6 with red arrows for Malizia and the pack of 4 and the various HP and LP zones in red marked.
The big picture is in pic 1 with Brazilian navy synoptic overlay (00UTC). I have manually removed most of the METAR zone lines in order to de-clutter the screen. The ITCZ is plotted in orange lines. Compared to the location of yesterday, the ITCZ is more or less stationary. In the middle it moved a bit south (+/- 25 nm).
Pic 2 has the NOAA IR NWS colour layer added indicating the cloud activity @ 00 UTC. Zoomed in to the 1040 UTC boat positions. Biotherm is less than 187 nm north of the very high clouds aka north side of the ITCZ. The blue and red colored clouds indicate colder / higher clouds which you want to avoid if possible. These can primarily be seen closer to Brazilian and African coasts.
Pic 3 has added GFS wind barbs @ 12 UTC from the 06UTC run.
The fleet has been dispersing in the past days. And different strategies are clearly emerging for crossing the ITCZ. The fleet is +/- 208 nm dispersed west to east. Do not follow the leader but pick a strategy / lane. Very interesting choices.
Malizia is by far the most western boat and has thus firmly invested in the west. With +/- 105 nm additional longitude compared to 11th Hr and Holcim-PRB.
On the other side of the fleet Guyot has firmly stayed east, closer to the rhumbline from Cabo Verde to Capetown. Malizia and Guyout are +/- 208 nm separately by longitude. And +/- 264 nm laterally.
The top-3 boats are still relatively close to each other, max distance is laterally 26 nm between 11th hr and current leader Biotherm. And positioned between the flanking Malizia and Guyot.
To put the obvious; only the top-3 are enjoying the same weather and Malizia and Guyot enjoy separate wind and pressure. This opens up also opportunities.
So which strategy (west – middle - east) is the fast lane?
Computing with 3 hr timesteps calculation for GFS 16 days ahead 1,25 degrees resolution and 06UTC run gives an interesting answer.
Pic 4 has the weather routing for the 5 boats. Malizia clearly projected far more to the west than the other 4 boats that all follow more or less the same route.
Pic 5 has the ETA table which indicates that for the top-4 boats their finish is projected within one (!) hour @ Feb 11th in the evening. Malizia projected a day and a half later @ Feb 13th early hours. All boats still projected to enjoy a LP ride eastward. But as Malizia is projected to drop off very quickly from the LP compared to the other 4, with following less winds than for the pack, she is projected to bleed a considerable additional amount of miles. See pic 6 with red arrows for Malizia and the pack of 4 and the various HP and LP zones in red marked.
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wildbirdtoo
Member
Fascinating! Thank you Herman. I guess it will really depend on how they manage to cross the ITCZ.. although the middle three boats will probably experience similar conditions. But I guess even a couple of miles can make a difference in squalls and lulls etc. This is the telling next period, I guess.
TheDragon
Super Anarchist
The ITCZ just keeps expanding if the forecast on the TOR tracker is to be believed. Malizia can barely gybe at 90 degrees, compared with 110 for Biotherm, must be super frustrated. But then, Herman has them doing time travel to arrive Jan 13, so maybe they have a secret mode (just teasing, Herman!)
The navigator of Holcim is Tom Laperche.
Slark
Member
Bit of a difference between navigation vs tactics. I’d say whoever is driving at the time needs to deal boat to boat position, shifts, precise timing on gybes, etc. That is tactics.
Who will soon be taking over from Francois Gabart. Tom is shit hot talent!
3to1
Super Anarchist
what's the lightest 60 in this race?
