Schakel
Dayboat sailor
Malizia closing in on the rest of the field:
Distance to leader 174.6 nM
Speed 15,3 knots
Velocity made good on course VMC 15,1 knots
While the rest of the fleet is having a boat speed of 1 to 5 knots
The Ocean Race 2023 leg 2: Cabo Verde to Capetown
- Thread starter Herman
- Start date
Distance to leader 174.6 nM
Speed 15,3 knots
Velocity made good on course VMC 15,1 knots
While the rest of the fleet is having a boat speed of 1 to 5 knots
ICTZ crossing will be a restart for the race. Will be interesting to see if the Navs make their target ICTZ-exit takeoff windows.
One thing about Malizia is that their polars are likely (read hopefully) more different than some of the other current gen IMOCAs. So, at this stage, with their position, the only thing they can do is position the boat for future leverage in favorable conditions. This polar difference may not be taken into account in some of our routings and ETAs- where we still don't understand how they will perform in the southern ocean.
Interestingly, regarding Malizia, I saw a recent video of OBR footage where Will Harris says they "just could not find their mode" in the early days' light conditions. I find that admission remarkable and somewhat alarming. How can such a well-funded program not have spent the hours to practice, optimize, and document their modes in light-air DW. I appreciate that these conditions are not the norm for the VG or this TOR race but they are evidently not a corner case. Maybe something else is up aboard (e.g. sails).
It's just remarkable that the crew seems frustrated and surprised by the boat's performance (as opposed to being aware of the boat's weakness in those conditions). What a novel surprise to have at the beginning of the 2nd 4,600 nmi leg of a 12,000 nmi race......
One thing about Malizia is that their polars are likely (read hopefully) more different than some of the other current gen IMOCAs. So, at this stage, with their position, the only thing they can do is position the boat for future leverage in favorable conditions. This polar difference may not be taken into account in some of our routings and ETAs- where we still don't understand how they will perform in the southern ocean.
Interestingly, regarding Malizia, I saw a recent video of OBR footage where Will Harris says they "just could not find their mode" in the early days' light conditions. I find that admission remarkable and somewhat alarming. How can such a well-funded program not have spent the hours to practice, optimize, and document their modes in light-air DW. I appreciate that these conditions are not the norm for the VG or this TOR race but they are evidently not a corner case. Maybe something else is up aboard (e.g. sails).
It's just remarkable that the crew seems frustrated and surprised by the boat's performance (as opposed to being aware of the boat's weakness in those conditions). What a novel surprise to have at the beginning of the 2nd 4,600 nmi leg of a 12,000 nmi race......
Fiji Bitter
I love Fiji Bitter
Not necessarely, it will be the accordeon effect, and a bit of a lottery combined.
Otherwise, I appreciate your expert commentary.
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Matagi
Super Antichrist
Do you need a bit of this?
As @Trocola already mentioned - they have new foils and Will Harris also mentioned in this video that they seem to not get foiling.
Another factor might be that modern IMOCAs are difficult to figure out. Take Alan Roura and his puzzlement regarding the complete lack of speed with his HB7/Hublot.
I also remember reading that both Charlie Dalin and Thomas Ruyant would only be able to max out the potential of their boats after the VG, years after their respective launches.
Fiji Bitter
I love Fiji Bitter
Do you mean this, or that ?
But yes, I was a little bit sarcastic, and his girlfriends tits were missing too...
wildbirdtoo
Member
Well, that applies to 4 out of 5 of the boats in this leg! Biotherm & Holcim are also new boats (launched a month later than Malizia) and Guyot is relatively new to the crew (if not a new boat)
Trocola
Member
- 90
- 87
It could seem like that but you are not taking into account that other boats could train with their current foils. While the boats you mention are recent they have had the time to two boat test. Finding the mode for lightwind DW can be a case of one day testing against other boat and Malizia didn't have the opportunity to do that. For Guyot, while the crew is new, they sure have the refined polars and over the years gathered information available.
Fiji Bitter
I love Fiji Bitter
Just hoping that Malizia will find some extra speed soon, or otherwise they will have to smash everybody in the roaring forties.
Fabricensis
Member
- 91
- 105
There are a few things to consider for Malizia 3:
1. The boat is much more radical than the other 'new' designs so one would expect it to take longer to find all the quirks
2. With the new foils and a rig optimized for heavy weather as well as a relatively heavy boat, if they need 18 kn wind to foil and the others need 15 kn, then they would lose a lot of miles in the conditions of the last few days
3. This boat was built for the southern Atlantic and Pacific oceans but has yet to ever cross the equator. It was only sailed close to the European shore, one roundtrip to the Carribbean and now from Spain to the doldrums. Maybe it will be a rocket ship once it gets to 'its' sea
That being said between this leg and the RdR the team seems to be missing some pace
1. The boat is much more radical than the other 'new' designs so one would expect it to take longer to find all the quirks
2. With the new foils and a rig optimized for heavy weather as well as a relatively heavy boat, if they need 18 kn wind to foil and the others need 15 kn, then they would lose a lot of miles in the conditions of the last few days
3. This boat was built for the southern Atlantic and Pacific oceans but has yet to ever cross the equator. It was only sailed close to the European shore, one roundtrip to the Carribbean and now from Spain to the doldrums. Maybe it will be a rocket ship once it gets to 'its' sea
That being said between this leg and the RdR the team seems to be missing some pace
And you also forgot to tell him to fuck off. Yeaaah the old days.......
Herman
Super Anarchist
- Thread starter
- #113
Weather routing Jan 29th
The big picture is in pic 1 with Brazilian navy synoptic overlay (00UTC), edited. The ITCZ is plotted in orange lines.
Pic 2 has the NOAA IR NWS colour layer added indicating the cloud activity @ 00 UTC. Zoomed in to the 0940 UTC boat positions. And added GFS wind barbs @ 12 UTC from the 00 UTC run.
Biotherm is laterally 114 NM from the Saint Peter and Saint Paul Archipelago.
The boats all seem to have entered the ITCZ as can be seen by their tracks + very slow boat speed on the TOR tracker and also the cloud activity in the sat IR pic.
Malizia has been doing rather well last 24 hrs steadily doing a Pacman eating away at their huge DTL of 234 nm @ 28th 18:48 UTC to 126 nm 2 10:00 UTC. So minus +/- 100 nm.
I’m not sure how they pulled this 100 nm off, as the projected wind and pressure does not seem to be significantly higher than for the pack. Only recently today their boat speed is the highest. But if you look at the sat IR image there is a lot of cloud activity to their starboard (to the west of them), which is not in de weather models.
The weather models capture the unstable ITCZ very limited, as has been noted in posts earlier. Which makes it a bit of a lottery. If you get stuck under a cloud that can cost you dearly. On the other hand, a lot of the times the FIFO-principle applies. First in, first out. We will have to see how the boats are doing in the coming days.
Pic 3 has the weather routing. Indicating that the boats should head SSE. But dodging the clouds will be the game the coming days. See pic 4 very high zoom.
Interesting to note is that the flyer by Malizia projected yesterday round-the-outside seems to be from the table as the 5 boats are projected to converge again around the latitude of St Helena.
Also, the Tue Feb 7th weather forecast has changed for the LP alley as depicted yesterday (Jan 28th) in pic 6. The boats are still projected to use a LP zone moving east. But shorter and with lesser winds. Finally, they are projected now they will not enjoy that second ride on a LP that was in the books yesterday. Accordingly the ETAs have been pushed back from the 11th in the evening towards the 12th in the morning.
Pic 5 has the Wx table. The middle lane for the top-3 looking the best atm.
The big picture is in pic 1 with Brazilian navy synoptic overlay (00UTC), edited. The ITCZ is plotted in orange lines.
Pic 2 has the NOAA IR NWS colour layer added indicating the cloud activity @ 00 UTC. Zoomed in to the 0940 UTC boat positions. And added GFS wind barbs @ 12 UTC from the 00 UTC run.
Biotherm is laterally 114 NM from the Saint Peter and Saint Paul Archipelago.
The boats all seem to have entered the ITCZ as can be seen by their tracks + very slow boat speed on the TOR tracker and also the cloud activity in the sat IR pic.
Malizia has been doing rather well last 24 hrs steadily doing a Pacman eating away at their huge DTL of 234 nm @ 28th 18:48 UTC to 126 nm 2 10:00 UTC. So minus +/- 100 nm.
I’m not sure how they pulled this 100 nm off, as the projected wind and pressure does not seem to be significantly higher than for the pack. Only recently today their boat speed is the highest. But if you look at the sat IR image there is a lot of cloud activity to their starboard (to the west of them), which is not in de weather models.
The weather models capture the unstable ITCZ very limited, as has been noted in posts earlier. Which makes it a bit of a lottery. If you get stuck under a cloud that can cost you dearly. On the other hand, a lot of the times the FIFO-principle applies. First in, first out. We will have to see how the boats are doing in the coming days.
Pic 3 has the weather routing. Indicating that the boats should head SSE. But dodging the clouds will be the game the coming days. See pic 4 very high zoom.
Interesting to note is that the flyer by Malizia projected yesterday round-the-outside seems to be from the table as the 5 boats are projected to converge again around the latitude of St Helena.
Also, the Tue Feb 7th weather forecast has changed for the LP alley as depicted yesterday (Jan 28th) in pic 6. The boats are still projected to use a LP zone moving east. But shorter and with lesser winds. Finally, they are projected now they will not enjoy that second ride on a LP that was in the books yesterday. Accordingly the ETAs have been pushed back from the 11th in the evening towards the 12th in the morning.
Pic 5 has the Wx table. The middle lane for the top-3 looking the best atm.
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Varan
Super Anarchist
- 6,970
- 2,167
"The last day has been that old question between strategy and tactics," said Kevin Escoffier on Saturday afternoon as he balanced the risk of a final gybe to get further west against staying close to Biotherm and 11th Hour Racing Team. "Strategically, I think we should gybe further west. but tactially we are in a good position with these other boats."
www.theoceanrace.com
Into the unknown
The leading boats are in an expanding doldrums and Malizia is making up miles
www.theoceanrace.com
wildbirdtoo
Member
More detail in the boat video.."The last day has been that old question between strategy and tactics," said Kevin Escoffier on Saturday afternoon as he balanced the risk of a final gybe to get further west against staying close to Biotherm and 11th Hour Racing Team. "Strategically, I think we should gybe further west. but tactially we are in a good position with these other boats."
Into the unknown
The leading boats are in an expanding doldrums and Malizia is making up miles
Varan
Super Anarchist
- 6,970
- 2,167
Simon Fisher:
Typically when you think you have arrived at the point of rest something transpires that means you either have to go back to the computer to look at the situation or back on deck to change sails, do a manoeuvre or stack the boat.
It has been a unusually tricky doldrums to figure out, there is still no simple and obvious way through short of sailing all the way to the Brazilian coast so it’s going to be interesting to see how the next few days play out as we all aim our bow south and do our best to get through ahead of the next guy.
I could just be happy not having to try and think while getting my brains shaken about through fast sailing
Typically when you think you have arrived at the point of rest something transpires that means you either have to go back to the computer to look at the situation or back on deck to change sails, do a manoeuvre or stack the boat.
It has been a unusually tricky doldrums to figure out, there is still no simple and obvious way through short of sailing all the way to the Brazilian coast so it’s going to be interesting to see how the next few days play out as we all aim our bow south and do our best to get through ahead of the next guy.
I could just be happy not having to try and think while getting my brains shaken about through fast sailing
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sunol
Member
- 152
- 75
We’ll see how it goes, but SiFi looking pretty good the last few updates.
TheDragon
Super Anarchist
This looks as close to torture as is legally allowed. I would love it if Malizia managed to find a way past the fleet, but I doubt it.
Schakel
Dayboat sailor
Who is in the lead here?
11-th hour racing in my opinion.
11-th hour racing in my opinion.
Fabricensis
Member
- 91
- 105
I don't think anyone can reasonably be said to be in the lead
If the wind is coming in from the north west it might even be malizia
