despacio avenue
Super Anarchist
Lest we forget the infamous one on Scallywag the last edition of the VOR...
The Ocean Race 2023 leg 2: Cabo Verde to Capetown
- Thread starter Herman
- Start date
Fabricensis
Member
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- 107
Incredible how close the field is right now. Everybody is similarly south, with just Malizia trailing by 55 nm or just 3 hours. 3 hours is the same distance as 1st to 2nd in the first leg...
Looking forward weather is going to be interesting and will definitely mix up a lot more than 3 hours. The usual trade winds are missing and the teams will either have to go upwind for a considerable time or brave another wind hole and punch through to the roaring forties or even furious fifties...
The route I would expect by eyeballing it does not even fit on the tracker but I just can't see the teams going upwind in around 10 kn wind for 2000nm
I'm looking forward to hermans routing, this might get very interesting
Looking forward weather is going to be interesting and will definitely mix up a lot more than 3 hours. The usual trade winds are missing and the teams will either have to go upwind for a considerable time or brave another wind hole and punch through to the roaring forties or even furious fifties...
The route I would expect by eyeballing it does not even fit on the tracker but I just can't see the teams going upwind in around 10 kn wind for 2000nm
I'm looking forward to hermans routing, this might get very interesting
Fabricensis
Member
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I have mentioned earlier in this thread that at least Team Malizia (but probably also the others) may have skimped on food to save weight. Right now it's looking like the leg might take a lot longer than expected, will we see a lot of hungry eyes in the next weeks?
Rocky
New member
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True, but Malizia will continue to bleed miles, lacking german discipline with Boris gone.
wildbirdtoo
Member
I doubt that very much.. Will Harris, I assume, will be very keen to do well as he's really focussed on a future VG campaign, abd will be wanting to build credibility. Yann Elies.. he's no slouch, or lacking in experience either!! I suspect its the boat/foils and lack of optimisation.
Fiji Bitter
I love Fiji Bitter
Do you mean that disgusting Sudacrem affair with Annemieke Bes?
That was a good one, but don't think it was King Neptune who had that rash on his scrotch.
BTW, Annemieke is crewing on Viva Mexico this time, and actually a real fun girl from the northern beaches of Amsterdam...
Rocky
New member
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Yeah you are right, it’s 2023 not 1942, Germans are not what they used to be. And I think a lot of Elies, I remember when he got crushed in the pulpit during a vendee and had to be airlifted with a lot of broken bones. It happened during the vendee in the SO and he was sailing Generali. He was a top contender at that point, think in 2nd place. Also accomplished Figaro sailor as someone else mentioned. Sure has a lot of experience as you said!
Schakel
Dayboat sailor
True, this is the official announcement on the Ocean Race Twitter page:
https://twitter.com/theoceanrace
wildbirdtoo
Member
.. and then came 5th in the 2017 Vendee, 1st in the TJV with Charlie Dalin in 2019 (who I'm sure wouldn't have had him as a partner if he wasn't good); 1st in TJV 2017 (with jean pierre Dick)... well I could go on! Loads of IMOCA experience...
Herman
Super Anarchist
- Thread starter
- #171
Weather routing Feb 1st
The big picture is in pic 1 far below with Brazilian navy synoptic overlay (00 UTC), edited. Boat positions 11:40 UTC. The HP zones marked “A” and the LP zones marked “B”. The St Helena HP is above Tristan da Cunha firmly blocking the shortest route to Capetown. The cold front at the Brazilian coast is present, as usual.
Pic 2 has the NOAA IR NWS colour layer added indicating the cloud activity @ 12:19 UTC.
All boats have left the ITCZ as can be seen from both pictures and their current boat speeds around 20 kts.
As noted earlier the weather models capture the unstable ITCZ very limited, making it a bit of a lottery. So who won and who lost in the transition of the ITCZ? I compared the change in DTF, DTL and ranking for the Jan 28th 11:40 positions against Feb 1st 05:40 UTC positions (delta time 42 hrs) for the boats, see the table in pic 3 below.
So staying east, close to the rhumbline, paid off for Guyot snatching the lead from Biotherm. All three boats in the middle lane lost considerable DTL. Holcim crossed the track of Biotherm to stay more to the east. With a current 2nd ranking as result as their boat speeds nearly match.
Malizia gained DTL. But is still further a lot more to the NW from the finish than the leader. Malizia and Guyot are laterally +/- 188 nm separated @ 05:44 UTC. Which is also the actual delta DTF and DTL in this case using a great circle measurement, as Capetown lays SE of both boats. So 35 nm higher than the 153 nm reported in the tracker. See Pics 4 and 5. So take the reported DTF and DTL (which is calculated as a delta DTF) with a pinch of salt imho.
Pic 6 has the weather routing @ 1,0 degree resolution and 3 hr calculation for 14 days ahead. ETA Feb 14th. Projection GFS MSLP for Monday 6th when it gets interesting. Red arrow indicates projection for Guyot.
And as posted earlier, hitching a ride at the LP alley could be on the menu. See pic 7. Crews must endure 30 kts AWS but this is reaching. Gusts up to 40 kts. But what a ride that could be. Red arrow indicates projection for Guyot.
A bit further in the forecast the St Helena HP goes to lunch below Capetown around Wednesday 8th. With a new HP zone forming at the usual location the following day. The timing of those events will be crucial for the routing. And something to watch.
Pic 8 has the Wx table.
The big picture is in pic 1 far below with Brazilian navy synoptic overlay (00 UTC), edited. Boat positions 11:40 UTC. The HP zones marked “A” and the LP zones marked “B”. The St Helena HP is above Tristan da Cunha firmly blocking the shortest route to Capetown. The cold front at the Brazilian coast is present, as usual.
Pic 2 has the NOAA IR NWS colour layer added indicating the cloud activity @ 12:19 UTC.
All boats have left the ITCZ as can be seen from both pictures and their current boat speeds around 20 kts.
As noted earlier the weather models capture the unstable ITCZ very limited, making it a bit of a lottery. So who won and who lost in the transition of the ITCZ? I compared the change in DTF, DTL and ranking for the Jan 28th 11:40 positions against Feb 1st 05:40 UTC positions (delta time 42 hrs) for the boats, see the table in pic 3 below.
So staying east, close to the rhumbline, paid off for Guyot snatching the lead from Biotherm. All three boats in the middle lane lost considerable DTL. Holcim crossed the track of Biotherm to stay more to the east. With a current 2nd ranking as result as their boat speeds nearly match.
Malizia gained DTL. But is still further a lot more to the NW from the finish than the leader. Malizia and Guyot are laterally +/- 188 nm separated @ 05:44 UTC. Which is also the actual delta DTF and DTL in this case using a great circle measurement, as Capetown lays SE of both boats. So 35 nm higher than the 153 nm reported in the tracker. See Pics 4 and 5. So take the reported DTF and DTL (which is calculated as a delta DTF) with a pinch of salt imho.
Pic 6 has the weather routing @ 1,0 degree resolution and 3 hr calculation for 14 days ahead. ETA Feb 14th. Projection GFS MSLP for Monday 6th when it gets interesting. Red arrow indicates projection for Guyot.
And as posted earlier, hitching a ride at the LP alley could be on the menu. See pic 7. Crews must endure 30 kts AWS but this is reaching. Gusts up to 40 kts. But what a ride that could be. Red arrow indicates projection for Guyot.
A bit further in the forecast the St Helena HP goes to lunch below Capetown around Wednesday 8th. With a new HP zone forming at the usual location the following day. The timing of those events will be crucial for the routing. And something to watch.
Pic 8 has the Wx table.
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Fabricensis
Member
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- 107
@Herman Interesting that your routing is considerably more eastern than what the field appears to be heading for rn (staying close to the coast then turning left at rio). Could there be a faster route just south of your simulation area?
Edit: also ECMWF has a different Idea what will happen off Argentina while the field is there, maybe thats the difference?
Edit: also ECMWF has a different Idea what will happen off Argentina while the field is there, maybe thats the difference?
Fabricensis
Member
- 92
- 107
Team Malizia just seems to have much more fun than the other teams. Maybe it's the chemistry between the crew members, maybe it's a more comfortable cockpit.
It's probably just the fanboy speaking but I can't help but wonder if this will be an advantage once fatigue sets in, especially for leg 3
Slark
Member
With the top 4 finishers routed to be about 2 +/-hrs apart I'd call that "too close to call". Interesting.
I certainly understand using the generic IMOCA setup in the routing but wondering if at some point during the race the differences in boat/foil design and/or sail inventory will become more apparent. Guyot's eastern route seems to be working for them but their boat is an older generation then the others. There are differences in the other 4 as well that could affect the outcome a few days out. Fun to watch/speculate.
I certainly understand using the generic IMOCA setup in the routing but wondering if at some point during the race the differences in boat/foil design and/or sail inventory will become more apparent. Guyot's eastern route seems to be working for them but their boat is an older generation then the others. There are differences in the other 4 as well that could affect the outcome a few days out. Fun to watch/speculate.
Loose Cannon
Super Anarchist
They should have hired me for onshore routing
Path forward looks tricky given the low doesn't seem to be moving too quickly off shore. so even if you dive south to get around light wind waves that stand in their way, you would end up going upwind when you got there?? Not your typical roadmap this time... Thoughts?
Herman
Super Anarchist
- Thread starter
- #177
I did not check ECMWF against GFS. Also no recent ASCAT available, I checked this morning. I did multiple routings today and posted only the last one, bcs I had a problem with the software. Irritating and time consuming. But then again, it is for free and it is developed by volunteers.
Routers will always take you too close to the high and getting it wrong is way too expensive to risk it. On board they would be looking at how much a route further West affects their progress and deciding how much to invest to avoid spinning off into the high or having to be on a bad gybe later on.
terrafirma
Super Anarchist
That explains why they are coming last..!
terrafirma
Super Anarchist
Holcim will most likely win this leg also. At the end of the day the most consistent boat speed over 24 hours will win you legs.
