The Ocean Race 2023 leg 3: Capetown to Itajaí, Brazil

[patrese]

looks like "NO Netflix" on the big screen of Bio anymore...

 

[Goodvibes]

But look at his eyes, they are definitely dilated, and his general demeanor was rather odd too.

Yep.

 

[winchfodder]

So which way for Holcim? Where are the nasty 4m waves? Can Herman plot a course that gets over or under them? 52 hour wind forecast.

 

[Herman]

Weather routing March 13th
Noted that when backtesting yesterday's projections against the 0645Z boat postions they do not match well. Boats are far behind the GFS and ECMWF projections. For 11th Hr and Team Malizia there is a sort of a reason as they both sailed +/- 45 nm due south along 146 degrees longitude for more wind and pressure. Trading more VMG for less longitude. Holcim-PRB was not explainable inaccurate though.

When routing with GFS / WW3 this morning I saw that Holcim-PRB was again routing towards NZ without any reason (no wind > 35 kts and no sig waves > 4 meters). So something is rotten in the state of Denmark. I checked the optimal routing settings and set the isochrone resolution to 0.5 hour and the drawing of isochrone intervals also to 0.5 hour. As the GFS forecast has 1 hour intervals up to H+18 hour.

The results are spectacular, as the Holcim-PRB routing now skips the flyer towards NZ, based on the same GRIB file.

Also, Nick White from @Expedition very kindly offered his help set up the polars that I use. And get targets in there. So a big thank you is in order.

So now that various issues are solved, back to our regular wx programming.

Pic 1 has MSLP and fronts as per BOM 06Z. Nice weather for high boat speeds as the sea state is still very good and more or less stable winds prevail. That depression and attached cold front to the southwest of the fleet won't be a problem as per projections. As the LP is dissolving March 14th. The various HP zones to the north of the fleet are relatively stable above land. Except for the HP 1022 hPa moving east to NZ. As that is +/- 600 nm away, the HP provides a nice elevator to move east quickly in combination with the LP zone to the SW.

Pic 2 has the ASCAT 05:15Z with the LP and attached CF. Blue lines for indication of CF and nucleus of depression.

Pic 3 has ASCAT and GFS 0515Z to validate.

Pic 4 ASCAT and ECMWF 0515Z to validate.

Both models overstate the wind force east of the cold front. And both don't have the nucleus very accurate.

Pic 5 has the isochrones Holcim-PRB routing with ECMWF. Going far south is not necessary, the virtual routing point seems more or less OK for latitude. Could be 40 nm more south, but I leave it for now. I'm using the same polar set for the 4 boats (for now), based on the TOXCCT powered @ 110 % downwind.

Pic 6 has the Wx routings and table using the new polars and ischrone calculation settings.
Both models push the boats south, but they are going east. 11th Hr being the exception diving due south atm as both models advise.

Pic 7 the wx table shows again that the 3-pack is tied within 1 hour for their ETAs when believing GFS and WW3. ECMWF plus WAM is adding 2 hours to all ETAs. Holcim-PRB projected to retain her lead with a handful of hours.

 

[M26]

Poor Charlie, all drugs and no sex and R'n'R.

 

[Herman]

Wx routing March 13th instant update
Just noted that the GFS file is not 100% covering the race area, it was one from 2 days ago.

So a new routing with fresh GFS. As can be seen GFS seems more reliable atm than ECMWF. ETAs and routes don't change much. But the short term wx change turns for the better due to GFS. 11th hr going south. The other 3 boats going east.

 

[winchfodder]

When routing with GFS / WW3 this morning I saw that Holcim-PRB was again routing towards NZ without any reason (no wind > 35 kts and no sig waves > 4 meters). So something is rotten in the state of Denmark

The tracker forecast 12 hours ahead looks like there will be possibility for Holcim to sail deeper south later in the day, as the wind heads, so I guess the easting not all wasted, though your polars prefer a gybe?

I remember on the last two legs that maybe Holcim could sail a bit deeper? Or was that Guyot (RIP). Herman, what is the lowest/optimum angle they can sail in around 20 to 25 knots of wind?

 

[dg_sailingfan]

Now it does look like Holcim-PRB takes a more northerly position.

I have a gut feel that Team Malizia are going to reel these guys in over the next 5,000+ Nautical Miles.

 

[Fabricensis]

Malizia is definetly on her home turf now, 2-7 (!) kn faster than all other boats.

We will see if this difference will hold until Cape Horn and, more importantly, if they can create a sufficient gap to make up for a slower boat all the way up the argentinian coast...

 

[Your Mom]

So... 11th hour went behind the scoring line after Biotherm had crossed it... Does Biotherm had an argument that they should pick up the point? Or is the scoring gate result locked in upon first crossing?

 

[ET1]

Malizia is definetly on her home turf now, 2-7 (!) kn faster than all other boats.

We will see if this difference will hold until Cape Horn and, more importantly, if they can create a sufficient gap to make up for a slower boat all the way up the argentinian coast...

That´s the point! As long as I follow these races (2008?) during legs round the Horn decisions fell up the south atlantic. All the way talking about covering in the Southern Ocean was useless.

 

[Rennmaus]

Today's scoring gate VNR:



Interviews & B-rolls:
11th Hour Racing Team (USA)
Charlie Enright (USA) - Skipper - Interview in ENGLISH
Justine Mettraux (SUI) - Interview in FRENCH
Justine Mettraux (SUI) - Interview in ENGLISH

Biotherm (FRA)
Paul Meilhat (FRA) - Skipper - Interview in FRENCH

Team Holcim - PRB (SUI)
Kevin Escoffier (FRA) - Skipper - Interview in FRENCH
Kevin Escoffier (FRA) - Skipper - Interview in ENGLISH

Team Malizia (GER)
Boris Herrmann (GER) - Skipper - Interview in GERMAN
Boris Herrmann (GER) - Skipper - Interview in ENGLISH
Will Harris (GBR) - Interview in ENGLISH
Rosalin Kuiper (NED) - Interview in DUTCH
Rosalin Kuiper (NED) - Interview in ENGLISH

 

[ET1]

These guys are looking really fine. Great mood.

 

[ET1]

Nico seems to be a sailor more than a talker

 

[k-f-u]

So... 11th hour went behind the scoring line after Biotherm had crossed it... Does Biotherm had an argument that they should pick up the point? Or is the scoring gate result locked in upon first crossing?

you serious?

 

[k-f-u]

That´s the point! As long as I follow these races (2008?) during legs round the Horn decisions fell up the south atlantic. All the way talking about covering in the Southern Ocean was useless.

I think Ericson 3 won it fair and square in the pacific, way before the Horn (https://archive.theoceanrace.com/en/history/2008-09.html --> Leg 5)

Edit: or here

 

[Herman]

Herman, what is the lowest/optimum angle they can sail in around 20 to 25 knots of wind?

Hi Winchfodder, see for yourself. Around 144-ish degrees with +/- 20 kts boat speed. As a reminder, the exact numbers are different for every IMOCA.

 

[dg_sailingfan]

I am curious what Team Malizia does once they have cleared the eastern tip of that Ice Gate Zone.

Will they go straight south? If they do that tells me Will, Boris, Rosalin and Nico have confidence in their Boat.

On this Leg I am actually rooting for Team Malizia a bit more compared to Holcim.

Malizia 1st, Holcim 2nd in Itajai would be quite nice

 

[Liquid]

Nico seems to be a sailor more than a talker

No Shit!

But he did smile, I detected 2 full smiles, and talk more in the above vid than since the start.

He's such a contrast to the erst of the team...

 

[ET1]

No Shit!

But he did smile, I detected 2 full smiles, and talk more in the above vid than since the start.

He's such a contrast to the erst of the team...

Good mixture it seems