The Ocean Race 2023 leg 3: Capetown to Itajaí, Brazil

[Swanno]

Biotherm clearly in the south westerly now as are 11th hour.

time to jump on the conveyor

 

[terrafirma]

So far Malizia haven't been able to roll Holcim. 11th Hour slipped out the back, maybe on their bad rudder now?

 

[Qsailor]

So far Malizia haven't been able to roll Holcim. 11th Hour slipped out the back, maybe on their bad rudder now?

Looks like its done now...

 

[3to1]

Who is Holcomb....?

holcim

 

[dg_sailingfan]

Malizia and Holcim finishing 1 and 2 in that order in Itajai would be really cool.
I like both Teams. Malizia first German Team since Illbruck in 2001/2002 to contest the Race but Illbruck had an American Skipper (Kostecki) so that was a bit different then.
I've a lot of good mates living in Switzerland. I used to go skiing during the winter months with them but now with my bad back I can't anymore. I also like Kevin Escoffier and that whole Team so I am rooting for them too.

 

[jdazey]

Maybe gybing was the smart move? Isn't being in the "lead" what matters in a race?

Being in a position to be in the lead at the finish is what matters.

 

[Schakel]

Nose dive aboard Biotherm:
They teared their FRO sail.
The FR0 is a downwind sail used in breezy conditions (when the A3 becomes too big) and for reaching (when the MHO is too big).

 

[dg_sailingfan]

Being in a position to be in the lead at the finish is what matters.

I would say "Stay In One Piece" is what matters over the next 72 Hours or so. Forget about "Racing". Peserve the Boat & Equipment is more important!

 

[dg_sailingfan]

Nose dive aboard Biotherm:

The have some damage not sure what.

They have ripped their Fractional Code 0 in half.

 

[TheDragon]

I don't see anybody backing off so far, but they are still in "medium" conditions for these boats. Still it is disappointing that Malizia cannot stretch ahead of Holcim, must be frustrating for TM.

 

[tiljim]

I don't see anybody backing off so far, but they are still in "medium" conditions for these boats. Still it is disappointing that Malizia cannot stretch ahead of Holcim, must be frustrating for TM.

They slowly but surely do.

 

[RiseUp]

Slowly? they are simply going 2 kts faster than the others.
Seems I can keep my bike, house and wife.

 

[Qtrfoil]

We can see the narrow gap between the IEZ and Cape Horn, and I wonder if there will be years in which there is no gap at all. As pieces of the shelf continue to break off, I'd have to assume that growlers will make their way farther and farther north. I'm not sure the winds are always going to keep a path clear. 40 kt gusts plus ice is going to be a very bad combo.

 

[Herman]

Weather routing March 23rd
The boats first gained some latitude north in order to stay away from the wind and waves from the LP zone to their south. And to get a good layline to head southeast. Biotherm was 200 nm to the north of the AIEZ and the rest +/- 236 nm north.

So this morning Biotherm gybed 1st around 0615Z after sailing with the pack NE with a very low VMG (5 - 7 kts and pointing to the Panama Canal or so). The other boats followed shortly. 11th Hr gybed as 2nd, and the other 2 within visual range were last. As there is a bit more wind and pressure to the south of the fleet, and Biotherm is closer to CH, Biotherm took the lead. Shortly after gybing the cold front attached to the LP to the south of the fleet caught up with them. As can be seen in their tracks.

Pic 1 CF passing Biotherm 1st and the rest hours later

ASCAT got lucky today @ 1009Z, see pic 2. I drew the attached CF that passed the fleet this morning.

Pic 3 has ASCAT10009Z and GFS. GFS overstating the wind behind the LP but or less OK for where the fleet was at that moment.

Pic 4 has ASCAT10009Z and ECMWF. ECMWF did get the LP more or less right, but the weather around the fleet for wind direction less than GFS.

Pic 5 has the Sat IR color 1430Z and HP/LPs plus cold fronts as synoptic map. The CF just past the fleet see the top in the middle.

Wx routing to Kaap Hoorn
Finally both GFS and ECWF show a better forecast allowing for a relative safe passage of Cape Horn. The fleet is still in the roaring 40s well above the AIEZ. Sea state will turn shitty at certain locations though according to both models WW3 and WAM with 7 m sig waves. This bad sea state should return to something better before the fleet arrives though. I had to set significant waves to 5 meters in order to get past CH.

WW3 sea state

WAM sea state

Wx routing ECMWF WAM. Guyot far right visible.

Wx table

 

[Swanno]

I've a lot of good mates

now we know you're talking shit

 

[Fiji Bitter]

now we know you're talking shit

Not sure, he may very well have a lot of imaginary friends.
Only problem is they are all full of shit...

 

[terrafirma]

I don't see anybody backing off so far, but they are still in "medium" conditions for these boats. Still it is disappointing that Malizia cannot stretch ahead of Holcim, must be frustrating for TM.

They have got 16 miles on them now that's not enough by a long shot. They are are around 3 miles per 4 hours faster as we speak but I think they might need a 40-50 mile lead which is only 2 hours in these conditions.

 

[Swanno]

Looks like a bit of a hole forming to the lee of the horn on Sunday then a shit of a northerly.

 

[dg_sailingfan]

They have got 16 miles on them now that's not enough by a long shot. They are are around 3 miles per 4 hours faster as we speak but I think they might need a 40-50 mile lead which is only 2 hours in these conditions.

Malizia needs a 100 NM+ lead around Cape Horn given the lightish Conditions during the Final 72 Hours of the Leg.

 

[dg_sailingfan]

Eurosport/Discovery+ will have a Highlight Show on April 4th (Leg 3, Part 1) at 19.30 CET/18.30 UK Time or 2.30pm ET US Time.