The Ocean Race 2023 leg 3: Capetown to Itajaí, Brazil

[Fiji Bitter]

Where are those gales?
You guys are all exaggerating like those populist weather people!

30kn winds are nothing if you are going "down wind", and 45kn gusts will be challenging, but are manageable by bearing away.
And BTW, those 6m waves are 5m swell with 1m overtaking waves on top, the odd ones sometimes breaking or coming in a bit square, ok.
And occasionally overtaking the big swell must be a joy forever.

The sea and air temperature is also rather comfortable at +5C minimum, and the possible snow or hail will melt away before it hits your face. They are hiding under the dodgers anyway,that's why they are called so!

The challenging bit certainly is to keep their boats in 1 piece, and do the repairs where necessary. And control the AP, do the routing, tactics, eat, sleep, and keep everyone safe and happy. Not so easy that all is.

But so far this somewhat long leg has been easy peasy, really...

 

[Rainbow Spirit]

Can Holcim and TM make the Horn in one more gybe? Looks like the other two won't.

 

[Herman]

Weather routing March 26th (1/2)
Powered down the polars for 11th Hr and Biotherm from 100% to 90% as their projections are too enthusiast. Team Malizia and Holcim-PRB unchanged.

ASCAT got lucky this morning @ 0545Z providing an idea what was actually going on for wind. See pic 1. At that moment 30 to 35 kts winds around the fleet and Cape Horn.

Pic 1 ASCAT 0545Z

Pic 2 ASCAT 0545Z zoomed

Pic 3 ASCAT 0545Z zoomed with actual wind in red barbs and ECMWF in blue barbs.

Pic 4 ASCAT 0545Z zoomed with actual wind in red barbs and GFS in blue barbs.

Both models overstating the actual wind as usual with +/- 5 kts. So powered-down the windscale factor a bit from 120% to 110%.

Pic 6 Sat IR color 1030Z v2 ECMWF wind and pressure

Pic 7 Sat IR color 1030Z v2 GFS wind and pressure

So stuff seems to fit for the big picture for both models.

Although the fleets enjoys relative stable wind in the 30-35 kts things will change in the coming hours drastically. Wind speeds will drop quickly to +/- 20 kts before the boats are even a bit close to Cape Horn. Also light patches will appear west of the fleet. And a HP zone around Ushuaia, expanding. The wind models disagree about the seize and specific locations, but the general picture is clear. After enjoying the southern ocean weather the wind will drop and very light wind sailing is on the menu. Rounding Cape Horn with 10 kts of wind. Due to the lighter winds rounding CH is now projected around March 27th during lunch time. @Fiji Bitter don't shoot the piano player .

Pic 8 ECMWF rounding CH zoom March 27th

Pic 9 GFS rounding CH zoom March 27th

Pic 10 Wx zoomed with ECMWF (reddish projections) and GFS (blueish projections)

See my next post for more pics, the max is 10 here.

 

[Herman]

Weather routing March 26th (2/2)
Looking further to March 28th the wind models do not agree at all. ECMWF (reddish projections) projects that TM and/or Holcim-PRB would have to enjoy a 35-40 kts winds due to a LP south of the Falklands. Rotating in from the Southern Ocean over Usuaia.

Pic 11 ECMWF March 28th

GFS (blueish projections) has this LP more to the SE of the Falklands and projects nice northerly winds.

Pic 12 GFS March 28th

With the models this much disagreeing I would take the wx table to Itaji with a ton of salt. For reference purposes only and don’t focus on the individual boat ETA’s. The flyer by 11th hr is bcs there is a HP zone projected driving the boat far east. Do not take that too serious either at this moment.

Pic 13 wx routing and table and Guyot far right in purple

 

[mathystuff]

 

[Fiji Bitter]

@Fiji Bitter don't shoot the piano player .

No worries, why would I ?
And 35kn is/was still not a problem (see above video!) and is still not a gale either.
Hell, in the old days they would trip a full size spi at 30kn apparent.

And did these Imoca's not set their 24hr records in that kind of winds, in a flatter sea, iirc.

 

[Varan]

Onboard Biotherm, Sam Davies explains...

"We had some really squally conditions with over 40 knots. Going down a big wave, the boat spun out, and gybed - twice - and as a result we damaged one of the traveller cars for the mainsheet which is what we had repaired at the start in Cape Town. We also broke one of the battens in the mainsail. A traveller car also caught on the tent of the cockpit and ripped the bottom joint away so we have more water coming in and lots of cold air, so it's freezing.

 

[wildbirdtoo]

Holcim PRB, highest boat speed in the field and closing in fast on Malizia.
Heading to the notorious cape Horn.
Keeping the boats in one piece is still priority number 1.
If you want to finish first, you first have to finish.
View attachment 582007

Wrong screenshot- the date shows 25 march. Current conditions and leader stata are different. Malizia extending lead.

 

[timotheysski]

The current design is already obsolete. The AC foil system if is the future.

Imagine, just imagine how hard a steering system has to work when the foil is metres out to one side? Surface piercing?

Imagine how much better it would be if the lifting surface was always submerged and closer to the centreline? I guess that's why the AC boats went that way.

Not meaning to bubble burst but I cannot see AC-style foils working on IMOCAs anytime in reasonable timescales. The main point of IMOCA foils is to provide more righting momentum first, and then lifting the boat up is an added benefit. AC foils have a much too narrow groove to work for anything more than flat water. Flying Nikka is the closes thing they've got and it requires the full attention of the guys and the engine running all the time which is why it can't sail more than 600-milers assuming 30 kts boatspeed the whole way.

I can see a myriad of red flags with AC-style foils on IMOCA-style boats with the current tech. That being said, feel free to blow my mind.

 

[Schakel]

Wrong screenshot- the date shows 25 march. Current conditions and leader stata are different. Malizia extending lead.
View attachment 582008

You are right, I am being hacked.
I step back for while.

 

[timotheysski]

11th hour fully back up to speed posting over 16 kts over 4 hours which is nice to see for them. Biotherm slow over 4 hours and slower overall which makes sense if they snapped a batten and so on.
I wish the other teams were also transparent about their wipeouts as I'm certain that's what caused 11th hour's issues. I'd also be surprised if Holcim hadn't wiped out. You can see in drone videos that when it digs into a bigger wave the thing starts heading up but it returns to the surface and the pilot bears away in time.
Malizia posting 1-2 kts faster averages than Holcim right now, but seastate supposed to be quite bad, which is certainly preventing them from pushing too much, which is good for Holcim.

 

[timotheysski]

Next 24 hours will be crucial, and 11th Hour and Biotherm know the race likely done for them if they don't make it past the calm zone before it sets in as shown in the screenshot above. PRB and Malizia are racing South to make it to the other side since the wind will die later down South.

Biotherm gybing out makes me think maybe they know that they can't make it so they're noping out before they get stuck in there are are going to try to go round by the North which will almost certainly put them behind Kevin and Boris.

I guess we shall see.

 

[dg_sailingfan]

View attachment 582015
Next 24 hours will be crucial, and 11th Hour and Biotherm know the race likely done for them if they don't make it past the calm zone before it sets in as shown in the screenshot above. PRB and Malizia are racing South to make it to the other side since the wind will die later down South.

Biotherm gybing out makes me think maybe they know that they can't make it so they're noping out before they get stuck in there are are going to try to go round by the North which will almost certainly put them behind Kevin and Boris.

I guess we shall see.

11th Hour Racing Team has now also gybed as they probably can't make it either.

I think there is a fair chance Boris & Kevin somehow escape from this HP System tomorrow as they round Cape Horn and turn north and if that's going to be the case Leg 3 could very well become a Match Race between Malizia and Holcim, a battle royale all the way to Itajai. It's exactly what this Race needs IMO.

 

[Liquid]

2 times in this video Biotherm burries the bow completely followed by 90° bear away.

And Holcim-PRB isn't doing much better:

As well as 1th Hr...

More of 2 submarines into broaches than bear aways for Biotherm, no?

Notice that the crew sit facing backwards with their backs firmly against the bulk head. Sam even trims on her ass, facing backwards...

Funny to watch a jibe with no one the tiller!

The challenging bit certainly is to keep their boats in 1 piece, and do the repairs where necessary. And control the AP, do the routing, tactics, eat, sleep, and keep everyone safe and happy. Not so easy that all is.

Another challenge is the fatigue/physical toll. Was it 11th that said it's tough not to be able to properly stand up?

This has to be the most tame SO transit though... Just a few days of proper conditions and it's over.

 

[Herman]

As well as 1th Hr...

More of 2 submarines into broaches than bear aways for Biotherm, no?

This has to be the most tame SO transit though... Just a few days of proper conditions and it's over.

No problem if it is tame. Last round John Fisher lost his live here on this day five years ago. DFRT lost a part of their mast, Mapfre teared their main and I probably forgot some other stuff what happened in rounding Cape Horn.

Remembering John Fisher

#ForeverFish

www.theoceanrace.com

 

[Goodvibes]

Not meaning to bubble burst but I cannot see AC-style foils working on IMOCAs anytime in reasonable timescales. The main point of IMOCA foils is to provide more righting momentum first, and then lifting the boat up is an added benefit. AC foils have a much too narrow groove to work for anything more than flat water. Flying Nikka is the closes thing they've got and it requires the full attention of the guys and the engine running all the time which is why it can't sail more than 600-milers assuming 30 kts boatspeed the whole way.

I can see a myriad of red flags with AC-style foils on IMOCA-style boats with the current tech. That being said, feel free to blow my mind.

Plenty said foiling monos would not work for the AC too. The IMOCA foils are bandaids on an old design.

Crew protection is great to see over the old volvo style boats, how ever crews are now being bashed about excessively. The righting moment provides the speed, the speed provides g's that are a threat to health and safety. To go faster they need to get the boat flying.

 

[TheDragon]

To go faster they need to get the boat flying.

thats what trimarans are for

 

[dg_sailingfan]

No problem if it is tame. Last round John Fisher lost his live here on this day five years ago. DFRT lost a part of their mast, Mapfre teared their main and I probably forgot some other stuff what happened in rounding Cape Horn.

Remembering John Fisher

#ForeverFish

www.theoceanrace.com

Yes, I agree with you Herman!
The last two Editions in 2014/15 and 2017/18 were pretty rough roundings around Cape Horn.

I am a little frustrated given the light to moderate conditions that there is no Team from TOR down there. Would be perfect conditions to shoot Vids & take Pictures given the calm weather without putting someone at risk.

 

[yl75]

Plenty said foiling monos would not work for the AC too. The IMOCA foils are bandaids on an old design.

Crew protection is great to see over the old volvo style boats, how ever crews are now being bashed about excessively. The righting moment provides the speed, the speed provides g's that are a threat to health and safety. To go faster they need to get the boat flying.

Ocean racing isn't flat water sailing like the AC is.

The IMOCAs will most probably fly once T rudders are allowed (and it could very well be for the next iteration).
But this probably won't prevent even more violent crashes in big seas, even if "smoother" on average ...

 

[timotheysski]

Ocean racing isn't flat water sailing like the AC is.

The IMOCAs will most probably fly once T rudders are allowed (and it could very well be for the next iteration).
But this probably won't prevent even more violent crashes in big seas, even if "smoother" on average ...

I don't think they'll allow T rudders until all daggerboard boats are phased out of generation. If they allowed it soon, there would simply be no more competition between T-rudder IMOCAs and all the other ones. Class becomes divided, less investors due to no chance of a good result, we know what happens next...