The Ocean Race 2023 leg 3: Capetown to Itajaí, Brazil

Tines

Tines

Malizian
51
82
Stuttgart, Germany
littlechay said:
Not my brother but a mate and some of his mates made it all happen. I had my feet up somewhere warmer ;)
Click to expand...
Can you elaborate this with some more details? A few posts earlier I thought someone was joking, but this seems to be correct.
What have you / your mates done during the last VOR? Hand how come did you guys end up in that role?
 
H

Herman

Super Anarchist
2,284
1,987
The Netherlands
Weather routing March 29th
Pic 1 has the big pic with the synoptic map for 00Z, edited. The LP (a 950 hPa low-low) that provided an elevator for TM and 11th Hr has moved away SE below ice island A76A. So no quick lift north for the last two boats, as projected earlier.

The cold front attached to that LP stretches back over 2.300 nm via another LP (994 hPa) to the Argentinian coast.

A new LP (998 hPa) is developing off the Argentinian coast, with a warm front, as expected. That will be the key weather thing to watch today for the first 2 boats.

Pic 1 big pic synoptic map 00Z
Pic 1 big pic synoptic map 00Z.png



Pic 2 has the Sat IR color for 07Z with LPs / HPs and fronts.
Pic 2 Sat IR color 07Z.png



Pic 3 Sat IR color 07Z with GFS wind and pressure. Stuff seems to match.
Pic 3 Sat IR color 07Z with GFS wind and pressure.png



Pic 4 Sat IR color 07Z with ECMWF (14Z run yesterday) wind and pressure
Pic 4 Sat IR color 07Z with ECMWF wind and pressure.png



Pic 5 ASCAT 0354Z has the local situation at that time. 30 kts at the Argentinian coast where the LP was developing, the rest had less wind. The timing of that LP moving SE will be crucial for the first 2 boats.
Pic 5 ASCAT 0354Z.png



Pic 6 ASCAT 0354Z in red barbs and ECMWF (02Z run) wind in blue barbs and pressure. The model is overstating the wind speeds directly north of the first 2 boats with 10 kts.
Pic 6 ASCAT 0354Z and ECMWF wind and pressure.png


Pic 7 ASCAT 0354Z and GFS (02Z run) wind and pressure. GFS overstating the wind speeds around that new LP with 5 to 10 kts.
Pic 7 ASCAT 0354Z and GFS wind and pressure.png


Pic 8 has the wx routing and table. ECMWF in reddish colors, GFS in blueish colors. Take the ETAs with a bit of salt again, as the weather models don't agree again on tomorrow. Which can decide which boat will be the leg winner.
Pic 8 wx routing and table.png


The routing for the 2 wind models disagree bcs of the HP zone developing tomorrow evening around Mar del Plata. Again this could make or break the leg winner if you gamble right/wrong.

Pic 9 HP March 30th GFS wind and pressure says go NNW to the coast for wind
Pic 9 HP March 30th GFS.png


Pic 10 HP March 30th ECMWF wind and pressure says stay away from the coast and go NE
Pic 10 HP March 30th ECMWF.png


So it is hard for me to tell which route the first two boats will take, as humans can also say "no" to the computer and pick another 3rd wx route as shown a bit up thread by me for TM.

I would not like to get too close to that HP if possible, which EC is suggesting now. On the other hand GFS sometimes overstates the wind force. We will have to see tomorrow what the actual situation will be and what boats choose.
 
M

minca3

Member
469
608
11th hour passing the horn; cold hostile beautiful place, iron sky with snow capped mountains.

In contrast to TM no group video shot with the horn in the background. I also have the impression that JuJu is distancing from the rest, they make a joke about her having the best race of her life.

Also noted that they seem to have the windward foil fully extended, to reduce slamming?

Both SiFi and Jack Bouttell were constantly adjusting the AP.

 
Fabricensis

Fabricensis

Member
92
107
minca3 said:
11th hour passing the horn; cold hostile beautiful place, iron sky with snow capped mountains.

In contrast to TM no group video shot with the horn in the background. I also have the impression that JuJu is distancing from the rest, they make a joke about her having the best race of her life.

Also noted that they seem to have the windward foil fully extended, to reduce slamming?

Both SiFi and Jack Bouttell were constantly adjusting the AP.

Click to expand...

11th hour seems to have a morale problem, probably not helped by the fact that they're left behind by the leaders

Team Malizia have undoubtably the best morale, Holcim are still quite happy since they are fighting for the win both overall and this leg and Biotherm had quite low expectations from the start.
 
yl75

yl75

Super Anarchist
3,256
1,648
France
Who is "the navigator" on Holcim, Kevin himself? Sam? Abby ? Tom? Shared job?
I understand that Abby has a strong VOR background, but in what role exactly?
 
E

ET1

Anarchist
545
161
Germany
Herman said:
Weather routing March 29th
Pic 1 has the big pic with the synoptic map for 00Z, edited. The LP (a 950 hPa low-low) that provided an elevator for TM and 11th Hr has moved away SE below ice island A76A. So no quick lift north for the last two boats, as projected earlier.

The cold front attached to that LP stretches back over 2.300 nm via another LP (994 hPa) to the Argentinian coast.

A new LP (998 hPa) is developing off the Argentinian coast, with a warm front, as expected. That will be the key weather thing to watch today for the first 2 boats.

Pic 1 big pic synoptic map 00Z
View attachment 582575


Pic 2 has the Sat IR color for 07Z with LPs / HPs and fronts.
View attachment 582576


Pic 3 Sat IR color 07Z with GFS wind and pressure. Stuff seems to match.
View attachment 582577


Pic 4 Sat IR color 07Z with ECMWF (14Z run yesterday) wind and pressure
View attachment 582582


Pic 5 ASCAT 0354Z has the local situation at that time. 30 kts at the Argentinian coast where the LP was developing, the rest had less wind. The timing of that LP moving SE will be crucial for the first 2 boats.
View attachment 582578


Pic 6 ASCAT 0354Z in red barbs and ECMWF (02Z run) wind in blue barbs and pressure. The model is overstating the wind speeds directly north of the first 2 boats with 10 kts.
View attachment 582586

Pic 7 ASCAT 0354Z and GFS (02Z run) wind and pressure. GFS overstating the wind speeds around that new LP with 5 to 10 kts.
View attachment 582580

Pic 8 has the wx routing and table. ECMWF in reddish colors, GFS in blueish colors. Take the ETAs with a bit of salt again, as the weather models don't agree again on tomorrow. Which can decide which boat will be the leg winner.
View attachment 582583

The routing for the 2 wind models disagree bcs of the HP zone developing tomorrow evening around Mar del Plata. Again this could make or break the leg winner if you gamble right/wrong.

Pic 9 HP March 30th GFS wind and pressure says go NNW to the coast for wind
View attachment 582585

Pic 10 HP March 30th ECMWF wind and pressure says stay away from the coast and go NE
View attachment 582587

So it is hard for me to tell which route the first two boats will take, as humans can also say "no" to the computer and pick another 3rd wx route as shown a bit up thread by me for TM.

I would not like to get too close to that HP if possible, which EC is suggesting now. On the other hand GFS sometimes overstates the wind force. We will have to see tomorrow what the actual situation will be and what boats choose.
Click to expand...
Looking at the tracker for the Moment and pushing it 4h forward it looks as if this LP (998) is moving SE very quickly andso will bring a big lift along Argentina. At the moment for me TM is looking better because PRB stiil has to gybe West to avoid the blue hole east of them. Well, may change every minute
 
N

noaano

Anarchist
722
363
Nice!

Marinetraffic automatically upgraded my account for free to "Professional Plus" for my boat station being >85% uptime, and it includes "SAT positions for 10 vessels".

malizia.jpg


No need to run custom scripts for the rest of the race!

Good reason to run AIS forwarder, if you have AIS reveiver (or SDR stick) and internet onboard - or at home.

But yeah, Holcim sat ais updating much better now than Malizia.

ps. also nice is "72 hours Wind Forecast" and "Nautical Charts". I think its really nice to see the tracking on actual nautical chart with depths and everything.

pps. also: "Playback History - 1 year" "Vessel Events History 1 year" "Voyage Data History - 1 year"!
 
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D

despacio avenue

Super Anarchist
1,088
360
Alaska
yl75 said:
Who is "the navigator" on Holcim, Kevin himself? Sam? Abby ? Tom? Shared job?
I understand that Abby has a strong VOR background, but in what role exactly?
Click to expand...
I believe Tom is the navigator but Kevin as the skipper and also with his previous experience in the VOR and expertise in general is sort of a co-navigator. Abby trims, raises and lowers the sails, and as a 4 time Cape Horn sailor, shares her knowledge and experience. I think Sam does a lot of what Abby does as well.
 
H

Herman

Super Anarchist
2,284
1,987
The Netherlands
Wind and waves
It is still tricky out there, according to the Malizia dashboard they just had a wind gust of 49 kts which is a whopping force 10. TWS is in the 45-50 kts wind range atm for TM. Boat speed still 20-25 kts in these conditions, unbelievable. Their barometer is steadily rising though. Sea state is +/- 2,5 meters sig waves according to WAM and WW3. But could be choppy due to wind against swell. Although the wave models don't agree.

Dashboard.png


WAM waves
WAM 13Z.png


WW3 waves
WW3 13Z.png
 
H

Herman

Super Anarchist
2,284
1,987
The Netherlands
noaano said:
Nice!

Marinetraffic automatically upgraded my account for free to "Professional Plus" for my boat station being >85% uptime, and it includes "SAT positions for 10 vessels".



No need to run custom scripts for the rest of the race!

Good reason to run AIS forwarder, if you have AIS reveiver (or SDR stick) and internet onboard - or at home.

But yeah, Holcim sat ais updating much better now than Malizia.

ps. also nice is "72 hours Wind Forecast" and "Nautical Charts". I think its really nice to see the tracking on actual nautical chart with depths and everything.
Click to expand...
The vesselfinder AIS does seem to work nicely in free mode imho. Including a lat lon grid, divider option and weather overlay.

But that free sat track plan from Marinetraffic is handy.
 
Last edited:
D

despacio avenue

Super Anarchist
1,088
360
Alaska
Tines said:
Can you elaborate this with some more details? A few posts earlier I thought someone was joking, but this seems to be correct.
What have you / your mates done during the last VOR? Hand how come did you guys end up in that role?
Click to expand...
I am sure Little Chay will weigh in when he sees this, but here is what happened: Vestas 11th Hour Racing, a Volvo 60, dismasted on March 30. 2018 about 100 nm from the Falklands during Leg 7 of the VOR from Auckland to Itajai. The mast broke just below the spreaders but the crew had to cut away the entire mast to protect the hull from damage. Charlie Enright was co-skipper with Mark Towill, and Simon was, as now, the navigator. They motored to the Falklands. When this happened, Ocean Racing Anarchy was on fire in real time, and Little Chaywas dialed in, He apparently periodically goes, or went, to the Falklands and has some mates there, who he got in touch with and let them know what had happened to Vestas 11th Hour, that it was on the way to the Falklands to assess their situation. Ultimately with the help of his mates and others Vestas 11th Hour sourced a rig on the island, and on April 7, the Vestas 11th Hour delivery crew sailed under jury rig to Itajai so that it could be fitted with a new mast in time to be on the start line for Leg 8 to Newport on April 22; Newport is an important port for Charlie and Mark, as Charlie grew up and lives with his wife and kids, he and Mark went to Brown University nearby, and the town had huge celebrations planned with school kids, etc. The delivery was estimated to take 12 days.There are photos on the 3/30/18 and 4/7/19 editions of Sail World which are online (Google this incident. I did to refresh my recollection).
 
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