The Ocean Race 2023 leg 3: Capetown to Itajaí, Brazil

[Qtrfoil]

That's a ton of reefing and furling for three crew. They must be exhausted.

The team (sea and shore) needs to make good decisions about Rosie being on watch. Like every sport in the world a concussed athlete will want to be back on the field and helping their team as quickly as possible. Sometimes they need to be protected from themselves. I think it works out well that there's an OBR who can take the lead on caring for an injured crew member.

 

[Herman]

In the last 12 hours TM experienced six cycles of wind conditions, but managed to keep speed relatively steady. That's a ton of reefing and furling for three crew. They must be exhausted.

The good news for TM is that the LP is now moving quickly away as per barometer, and TWS is accordingly steadily climbing down too. From the 40s up to now +/- 30 kts. The worst seems to be over.

It looks like they picked 62 degrees west longitude as their path north. Holcim-PRB doing a bit of a zig-zag behind them though. Going west again as they do now is very (double) expensive. As they will have to go east again.

The boats are 32 nm apart laterally, but DTL is smaller as TM is +/- 8 nm more to the west than HPRB (finish is NNE). But has 31 nm more latitude. As TM is closer to that LP moving SE, they should have a bit more wind (a couple of kts) than HPRB.

 

[Kalimotxo]

yacht.de Tatjana Pokorny

Boris Herrmann:

"We have conditions at the moment that are much more difficult than in the Southern Ocean. We had 50 knots of wind the night before last. As of today, we can expect another low. These are such small but strong lows that come off the Argentinean coast and develop here. They are difficult to predict. We can expect 50 knots again. So it's also a bit about not doing anything wrong, not breaking anything.

We were faster than Holcim in the phase of the strongest winds the night before last. With two reefs. And I think they had reefed a bit more. It remains a mix out here: it's not as clean racing as somehow in normal conditions. The sea is completely chaotic. You rattle through here like that. The wind last night was 50 degrees different than forecast. It shifts incredibly with the clouds.

We are sailing in a very unusual off-road terrain here. That's probably more of an advantage for us and our 4 wheel drive. Carry on as before, that's the motto. Nico is doing a super clean job with the weather. That's a good risk reduction for us: having someone who pays attention so well. Will and I mainly try to look after the boat well. Rosie, of course, can't recover as well because it's pounding. Even I had a headache the day before yesterday from the slamming. Now we just have a short moment with less wind, so I can report.

Anything can still happen. Of course I hope that we will be first or second and that there won't be any big surprises. It's simply a matter of sticking with it, keeping going and fighting for every metre. There are no big strategic plans. I also believe that Kevin will stay with us. Or we will stay with him. So you can imagine a match race from here to the final, where it will be a lot about boat speed. And a bit of luck.

Sometimes you can't do anything. Like on Monday. There we were 20 miles ahead to the east. That put us north-east of the low that was moving east over us at the same time. That was much better for Kevin. He gained 20 miles at one point. We got those back again. But that's how the dynamics and the geometry of the field and the shifts work with the weather phenomena: They can give great advantages to one or the other. Even if you are the leader, sometimes you can't do anything about it.

 

[Tines]

Wow! Thanks fir sharing this!!
So great to see how a stupid forum like this could help others to continue in a round the world regatta. #kudos!

 

[symbio2]

 

[carlosgp5]

Weather routing March 29th
Pic 1 has the big pic with the synoptic map for 00Z, edited. The LP (a 950 hPa low-low) that provided an elevator for TM and 11th Hr has moved away SE below ice island A76A. So no quick lift north for the last two boats, as projected earlier.

The cold front attached to that LP stretches back over 2.300 nm via another LP (994 hPa) to the Argentinian coast.

A new LP (998 hPa) is developing off the Argentinian coast, with a warm front, as expected. That will be the key weather thing to watch today for the first 2 boats.

Pic 1 big pic synoptic map 00Z
View attachment 582575


Pic 2 has the Sat IR color for 07Z with LPs / HPs and fronts.
View attachment 582576


Pic 3 Sat IR color 07Z with GFS wind and pressure. Stuff seems to match.
View attachment 582577


Pic 4 Sat IR color 07Z with ECMWF (14Z run yesterday) wind and pressure
View attachment 582582


Pic 5 ASCAT 0354Z has the local situation at that time. 30 kts at the Argentinian coast where the LP was developing, the rest had less wind. The timing of that LP moving SE will be crucial for the first 2 boats.
View attachment 582578


Pic 6 ASCAT 0354Z in red barbs and ECMWF (02Z run) wind in blue barbs and pressure. The model is overstating the wind speeds directly north of the first 2 boats with 10 kts.
View attachment 582586

Pic 7 ASCAT 0354Z and GFS (02Z run) wind and pressure. GFS overstating the wind speeds around that new LP with 5 to 10 kts.
View attachment 582580

Pic 8 has the wx routing and table. ECMWF in reddish colors, GFS in blueish colors. Take the ETAs with a bit of salt again, as the weather models don't agree again on tomorrow. Which can decide which boat will be the leg winner.
View attachment 582583

The routing for the 2 wind models disagree bcs of the HP zone developing tomorrow evening around Mar del Plata. Again this could make or break the leg winner if you gamble right/wrong.

Pic 9 HP March 30th GFS wind and pressure says go NNW to the coast for wind
View attachment 582585

Pic 10 HP March 30th ECMWF wind and pressure says stay away from the coast and go NE
View attachment 582587

So it is hard for me to tell which route the first two boats will take, as humans can also say "no" to the computer and pick another 3rd wx route as shown a bit up thread by me for TM.

I would not like to get too close to that HP if possible, which EC is suggesting now. On the other hand GFS sometimes overstates the wind force. We will have to see tomorrow what the actual situation will be and what boats choose.

tks

 

[Tines]

Latest news are that Boris and Will are alternating watches while Nico can rest as much as he wants to be able to navigate through this weather madness with a fresh mind.
Meanwhile Rosi is resting & sleeping in her bunk. No physical work is done by her. She is the raw egg on TM. Braking her will destroy all hopes and dreams for points in this leg

 

[Herman]

A whipeout on HPRB this morning, scary stuff.

Nice that the French speaking lady / AP says translated "I don't like this situation" repeatedly. Very handy those AI boosted APs .

 

[Herman]

tks

We are looking forward to your pics and video's here

 

[Chasm]

A whipeout on HPRB this morning, scary stuff.

Nice that the French speaking lady / AP says translated "I don't like this situation" repeatedly. Very handy those AI boosted APs .

When the boat starts talking to you it is time to change the way you sail.

A visual reminder why stuff on board has to be fixed in place, including sleeping sailors.

 

[timotheysski]

When the boat starts talking to you it is time to change the way you sail.

A visual reminder why stuff on board has to be fixed in place, including sleeping sailors.

This messaged is approved by Team Malizia & Boris Herrmann Racing.

 

[yl75]

No need to worry so much guys, Kevin and crew will win this leg anyway, and you know it.

 

[willsilvaa]

You might be right.I hope not.I am rooting for TM. I like the team vibe,and the boat. Did i remember right TM has no code 0,too bad. Bloody nailbiting for me. It looks like a horrible low wind zone will develop dead ahead for TM and PRB.........great to see 11th hr gaining again..........on another note...i think Rosi has become a wonderful beacon for young women{and men} to embrace our sport

 

[olo.0815]

No need to worry so much guys, Kevin and crew will win this leg anyway, and you know it.

I'll wager my left sock that Nico will out-navigate Kevin & Co. and Malizia finishes more than 23minutes ahead

 

[timotheysski]

A whipeout on HPRB this morning, scary stuff.

Nice that the French speaking lady / AP says translated "I don't like this situation" repeatedly. Very handy those AI boosted APs .

Could that be their gybe mid-night (not midnight lol)?
Sounds like Kevin is playing with the keel which makes sense in a gybe. This also explains the heel angle alarms because there's less keel to make RM so you don't have to move the keel a full 80 degrees in the gybe.
Also makes sense then why he talks about the runners, asking if they are ready and so on.

Steering that thing in these conditions looks like the most tense thing ever.

 

[JV88]

After all that happened this leg TM must win this one. What a team! Great vibe and the only team that makes you watch there everyday life, struggles, tactics and technical issues. For me they already are the winners of this leg!

 

[3to1]

11th hour seems to have a morale problem, probably not helped by the fact that they're left behind by the leaders

Team Malizia have undoubtably the best morale, Holcim are still quite happy since they are fighting for the win both overall and this leg and Biotherm had quite low expectations from the start.

'morale' problem or boat/technical problems. they're taking care of business and seem to be managing to keep their heads in the fight.

 

[Eoin]

Great video, thanks.

It all seems very calm and quiet, for a boat that's on it's side in the southern Ocean. I know the camera doesn't capture any of this stuff, but I would have expected everyone to be shouting to be heard over the sound of sails flogging themselves to death.

Does anyone know/ can anyone guess what the procedure is to get out of that situation? I would have expected to see them furiously easing the main and furling headsails but I don't see any of that going on.

Timothy I fully agree about the steering. Trying to steer that thing down like the guys are doing and not overshoot into a crash gybe takes some serious skill and serious balls, especially in the dark, in a fully enclosed cockpit where you can't feel the breeze. Respect!

 

[Herman]

Biotherm lost all wind instruments and the computer during their gybe around Cape Horn;

"This was a spectacular rounding of Cape Horn because there was so much snow... It was absolutely beautiful. Huge snow squalls coming through," said Sam Davies on Biotherm.

"It's a great goal post to get through but as we gybed close to Cape Horn we lost all of our wind instruments and the computer. At the same time there was that massive snow squall so we didn't have a lot of time to celebrate..."

The team is going old school with the electronics damage, tying 'woolies' on the shrouds to show the wind angle.

Northern progress for The Ocean Race fleet

Team Malizia leads the fleet north towards BrazilPeter Rusch

www.theoceanrace.com

 

[timotheysski]

It all seems very calm and quiet, for a boat that's on it's side in the southern Ocean. I know the camera doesn't capture any of this stuff, but I would have expected everyone to be shouting to be heard over the sound of sails flogging themselves to death.

Does anyone know/ can anyone guess what the procedure is to get out of that situation? I would have expected to see them furiously easing the main and furling headsails but I don't see any of that going on.

Yeah this is what I noted as well that made me think they were gybing instead of wiping out.