The Swedish Experiment

[The Dark Knight]

The Swedish non-lockdown "herd immunity" approach to Covid-19 gets plenty of mentions in various threads, so maybe Sweden need a suppository of posts following their progress.

Current death toll is 2192

 

[The Dark Knight]

2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

You say they don't change direction that might be put to the test...though you right I think they have already sold the more deaths less economic impact message well and won't change.

This not the one I was talking about but a Swedish epidemiology pundit.

This only a few days old and at interview beginning Sweden 160 deaths/million versus UK 240/million is mentioned. Sweden today only couple days later is already 240/m and chasing the UK down at faster rate.

Also his Stockholm herd immunity is a nonsense with most agreeing Stockholm is around 25% infected. The automatic social distancing mentioned plays big role in that so Sweden suppressing more than it looks like.

His point about deaths occuring with lock-downs lifting and death rates balancing out is interesting. The US is the one to watch there. 

NZ the beginning (Kiwi doesn't mention Aust the prick) . Sweden from 3.00

 

[Sidecar]

The Swedish non-lockdown "herd immunity" approach to Covid-19 gets plenty of mentions in various threads, so maybe Sweden need a suppository of posts following their progress.

I suppose you mean repository, unless you are suggesting that this thread shoves itself up Sweden’s arse?

 

[The Dark Knight]

I suppose you mean repository, unless you are suggesting that this thread shoves itself up Sweden’s arse?

I wrote what I meant

 

[jack_sparrow]

This only a few days old and at interview beginning Sweden 160 deaths/million versus UK 240/million is mentioned. Sweden today only couple days later is already 240/m and chasing the UK down at faster rate.

In context to Norway next door <40 deaths /million. 

 

[The Dark Knight]

In context to Norway next door <40 deaths /million. 

View attachment 360039

 

[MRS OCTOPUS]

^^

You guys are hillarius.

Population Sweden 10.23 million in 2019.

https://www.google.com/search?q=population+of+sweden&oq=population+of+sweden&aqs=chrome..69i57.6595j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

You MUPPETS both seem happy with the 2192 death toll figure.

WTF is .......... "only a few days old and at interview beginning Sweden 160 deaths/million versus UK 240/million is mentioned"

you MUPPETS roll out with your now familiar lets scare the bejesus out of ourselves routine.

MUPPET MATHS

2192/10.23 = 214 lets call it 215.

NOT 160

DICKHEADS

 

[AJ Oliver]

I do agree that a thread on the Swedish experiment would be a good idea; 

but we're not off to a very good start . . 

How 'bout if you check your facts, and remember to be civil, before you post? 

 

[jack_sparrow]

WTF is .......... "only a few days old and at interview beginning Sweden 160 deaths/million versus UK 240/million is mentioned"

It's a new invention called UTube...try it and you will get rid of your Super 8 guaranteed.

 

[The Dark Knight]

^^

You guys are hillarius.

Population Sweden 10.23 million in 2019.

https://www.google.com/search?q=population+of+sweden&oq=population+of+sweden&aqs=chrome..69i57.6595j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

You MUPPETS both seem happy with the 2192 death toll figure.

WTF is .......... "only a few days old and at interview beginning Sweden 160 deaths/million versus UK 240/million is mentioned"

you MUPPETS roll out with your now familiar lets scare the bejesus out of ourselves routine.

MUPPET MATHS

2192/10.23 = 214 lets call it 215.

NOT 160

DICKHEADS

View attachment 360039

The higher the death toll in Sweden and the more wrong the Swedish herd immunity approach is, the better.

Why? Because that reinforces more that the shutdown approach was the right method of dealing with covid-19. If in 18 months time it is confirmed, it means that we saved many lives here in Aus.

Dickhead

 

[RobG]

It's way too early to know if the Swedish strategy is better than others. Give it a year, then it may be clear. Whatever strategy a country takes is probably reasonable as long as its health resources aren't overwhelmed.

Many are lauding New Zealand's approach, yet its death rate at the moment is higher than Australia (4 vs 3 per million respectively), but likely that will change. Also, swedes are voluntarily imposing their own "lockdown", so it's not really much of a different strategy, just different public policy to achieve the same outcome. It also gives the government a good reason not to provide economic stimulus, so it's more of an interesting economic study at this stage.

Given the arrival of summer, it may be that infection rates go up as people come out of houses and mingle in the warm summer air (where northern European "warm" is still brisk to those who live within 40° of the equator). It's all guesswork.

 

[The Dark Knight]

Expect a big spike related to Valborg (evening 30th April) and Midsommar 

 

[jack_sparrow]

Warning. Ignore Belgium COVID mortality per capita...the UK should be the highest.

Belgium are the exact opposite to the UK who understate their Covid fatalities not by design but by their Covid stats being split over two time schedules around 2 weeks apart for hospital and outside hospital deaths.

View attachment 359499

Belgium made a conscious decision to count every death as COVID the opposite to say China.

So for instance in China a COD for a person with chronic virus symptoms and coughing up blood over the windscreen and who has a virus induced heart attack driving to hospital crashes and dies. The COD will be a car accident in fact they might even put down to a lightening strike if it occured on a cloudy night in Wuhan.

Same car accident occurs in Belgium who count every death COVID related even if it isn't, you are a COVID death.

In fact if as the First Responder to that accident and you had a huge shock and died because the victims head couldn't be removed from the rear view mirror, you are a COVID death in Belgium.

That's why a country with only 11 million people has chalked up 6,700 COVID deaths, but a hospital system that isn't overloaded and yet are Gold medalists in deaths per capita. The UK should be the Gold medal holder on that chart.

The method of proving that the UK is way out of whack is simply to take European EuroMOMO partner countries Weekly "Z Scores" used to standardize series and enable comparison mortality pattern between different populations or even between different time periods. See below.

PS. The UK are not alone. Others are doing it. For instance in the US and NYC in particular who at 22 April had sort of misplaced 4K excess deaths since last month on the official COVID related count.

Weekly "Z Scores" All Deaths Up to 2020 Week 16

 

[The Dark Knight]

I included Belgium because it has a similar population size to Sweden and Swedes like using Belgium as a bench mark to show that what they are doing is working well.

Smoke and mirrors...

 

[jack_sparrow]

It's way too early to know if the Swedish strategy is better than others. Give it a year, then it may be clear. Whatever strategy a country takes is probably reasonable as long as its health resources aren't overwhelmed.

Rob I feel like a prick disagreeing with you the sensible and thinking Covid one, but I must. So to respect that I have to go "word salad" which bores many to death and some repeats from my posts elsewhere that refer to Sweden. 

Any Swedes who have dialled in please don't read this as criticism. It is hopefully an impartial appraisal.

Yes Rob as you say the Jury is out on Sweden as most countries but IMHO this is a case of OJ Simpson is in the dock. 

The prosecutions case is assisted by the fact the Swedes to their credit unlike many have transparent and readily available Covid data. Flip side is they are masters at spinning it for political gain domestically and maybe internationally and that should be judged accordingly.

Their approach being the odd man out in Europe, if not globally, means a lot of people with very large epidemiology heads have been examining their virus response approach and outcomes in a lot of detail compared to others, not just because it is contry to theirs. Without that I couldn't write this.

So starting see graph below on Euro virus responses.

View attachment 356604

Their expert examination is aided by the fact Professor Johan Giesecke, is one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, an advisor to the Swedish Government, WHO and ECDPC scientist. He also appears to be the face of Sweden's response not so much Anders Tegnell directing Swedish strategy. Maybe that's a media thing. As you can see from what follows, maybe not.

Typically Swedish very blunt about what he thinks which is refreshing. For instance he is scathing of the UK's response. That is principally due to the fact that up until 16 March (implemented a week later, see above graph), the UK were mirroring the Swedes. This is not widely appreciated in the UK due to some slight of hand political shitfuckery there. 

However because of that late UTurn by the UK their outcomes become very instructive for the EU.

While many disagree with his approach they do appear to respect him very highly as a scientist.

Is Sweden That Different.

Firstly the appearance that Sweden's approach is literally one of ignore COVID is false. That being they have solely a "mitigation/herd immunity" strategy. That is literally only some "hand washing" and maybe isolate those most at risk. That is incorrect. They have a "mitigation' and "suppresion" hybrid approach as follows.

- Large groupings outside normal day to day business are prohibited.

- An extraordinarily large number of people live alone courtesy of some decades old Swedish Govt social engineering.

- The Swedes are the world's original social distancers by culture. This pic courtesy of @The Dark Knight the OP of this thread says it all. Anyone who has spent time in Sweden will recognise this is not an exaggeration.

View attachment 358630

- Apart from the above their viral response is textbook "mitigation" so no test/trace and so any reliable case data is only that produced via the hospital front door. Much like the UK and US and exact opposite to say Germany in their same postcode.  

Therefore with the above caveat on case data, Sweden's Active Cases and Daily Case numbers as they relate to impacting upon hospital admissions can be regarded as reasonably reliable for broadbrush comparisons for trajectory only. Sweden is arguably looking more towards a plateau than a peak. Iceland having that with no lock down and the UK with late lockdown are headed maybe instructive. 

View attachment 359923

Why have Sweden adopted this "go it alone" strategy?

- One of the worst health care systems in Europe so the economic loss of "suppression" versus "saving lives" is a closer equation for Sweden.

- They have a higher proportion of over 65's compared to Europe so on paper are at risk, but they are located outside more dense locales like Stockholm and older people transmit less. Younger people transmit more, but less chance of ending up in body bag. The US with NYC and UK with London have a similiar demographic.

- Neighbourly considerations. Sweden immediate neighbours are Norway to the north which while in single market, free movement of people etc, is not in the EU Common Market so there is an element of existing border controls to reduce impact upon them. The comparative numbers show that has worked.

The other the Netherlands in the EU to the south were a very early lock down country as shown in the above graph. Interestingly there is an argument they have not benefited by  having Sweden as a neighbour even with that.

- The Government know they are not doing a true "mitagation/herd immunity" strategy but  a "hybrid" as outlined above, so covering their bets to some extent.

- Finally the social question every country faces and it's Government faces? What is an acceptable mortality rate? The Swedes simply are prepared to 

Observations

I can't cite the following observations as it would take for ever. However they are only drawn direct from global epidemiology leaders like Sweden's Giesecke and the UK's Ferguson and others. No crackpots or media interpretations.

- Sweden is still seeing day-on-day increases in death and infection rates, whereas places like the UK which is not brilliant in terms of testing and death rate it's has now fallen to below R1 for infection (how many people one person can infect).

- Regardless of what Sweden has done the Infection-Fatality Rate in cities or regions of higher population are all in the same range 0.7 - 0.9% with the only difference being demographics etc.

- Sweden claim with mitigation the correct policy is only to protect those most at risk only and this will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product.” Putting aside that globally isolating those at risk has not worked including in Sweden, Sweden claims the flattening of any curves is due to the most vulnerable dying first. That may well be true but Sweden goes one step further and says that is as much to do with a lockdown as anything else. So to interrogate that.

- The infection rate will always tell the right not a different story. For instance taking the largest sources of mortality with similiar demographics being London, Stockholm and New York where both London and New York closed down arguably later than they should have putting their respective health care systems on the edge of imploding and Stockholm with no close down and similarly so but having already accepted as a nation a higher mortality rate.

They all have an infection crate within 5% of a band between 20 - 25%. Furthermore this undermines Sweden's thoughts that a much higher "herd immunity" rate as a “by-product” of say 60% or higher can be produced. If it had been produced with the above 0.7 - 0.9% CFR existing in those three cities, Stockholm would be a killing field.

- Overlaying this is there being no evidence yet that prior exposure to COVID guarantees any level of immunity. The WHO have been saying this for weeks to warn countries of the folly attached to Immunity Passports.

- Sweden are claiming that post lock-down other countries fatality rate will pick up which not many will dispute. However the further claim being they will then catch to Sweden (who has not incurred the economic impact of a close down) is solely based upon Sweden enjoying "herd immunity."

Yet the sole underlying foundation to Sweden's thoughts is "herd immunity" will be achieved but with a higher front end shock. The problem is that 'herd immunity" hasn't occured. 

So using the three cities on a per capita basis Stockholm has climbed/is climbing the ladder faster with the benefit of hoping for a larger parachute than London and NYC. The reality is all three after lock-downs are done, all three have the same sized parachute within +/- 2.5%.

Conclusion

To paraphrase Professor Johan Giesecke on behalf of Sweden only a week ago and which he has guided Sweden's response according to him, which on the evidence appears true.

"Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people." 

Now the gloves come off.

That from Giesecke a scientist who may or may not ever ever ventured inside a hospital and or has any clinical experience with respiratory viruses. From one who has and is working on the front line involving body bags not sitting behind a desk writing papers and is comparing CONVID to the flu as follows:

"This is as different as Ebola is from an ingrown toenail.

This is a very very different disease"  ..."Normally, a viral or bacterial infection of the lung will cause it to fill with fluid and pussy tissue as a consequen ce of the infection. That isn't what happens with Covid -19. What they are seeing is that there  is something wrong with the blood vessels in the lung."  Intensive Care Specialist Professor Hugh Montgomery 7 April - London UK.

Yes Rob I'm a ventriloquist. The place to go on SA if you want to know "How Covid-19 Kills You" by @RobG

So back to the Swedish brainfart extraordinary.

Even those into writing papers down the road from Sweden in the Netherlands underwriting what Montgomery has said above.

- 3 April - COVID-19: A Comprehensive Pathophysiological Approach 

OR maybe this and experiences predating the brainfart from Stockholm a week ago from the US.

cardiovascular/thrombotic/Covid characteristics 

Then again to finish to paraphrase from my daughter the Paramedic on the frontline.

"Dad they should have been with a Blood/O2 less than 40 fucking stone dead, but these people were still talking and lucid and we get some to hospital and they end up Ok we are told..... Yet we get others down a bit on O2 normal and happy to walk to the truck unassisted and they have a friggin heart attack.. bang dead on the spot even with Defrib before getting some out their front door...this virus and heart attack shit every 5 minutes is driving us insane."..."Shit ..are you eating well darling??..

 So Professor Johan "it's only a mild disease and similar to the flu" Giesecke have you got anything to say about the above frontline experiences, work and procured knowledge of the above people numbering in thousands around the globe?  I thought not. Just a bit of Swedish political propaganda hoping no one will notice mate.

....................................

The Interview the Swedish Govt have Tried to Ban Internationaly

Anyway haven't quite finished with you yet Professor Johan. You say again last week paraphrasing;

"The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%. At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available"

So OK Johan would you mind to finish this (you) off quickly after your bad flu political shitfuckery happy to go to a Q&A format?

JG. No problem I'm Swedish...and yes the only bad flu thing I may have embellished. Forgive me.

JS: Mate your fatality rate of 0.1% you said just last week you are happy with that in terms of what world experts are saying? It seems low depending on locale?

JG: It's looking shakey...can I pass on that one?

JS:  OK Johan just this once. Your 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden having already had the disease?

JG: No that is wrong it's around 20- 25% at best as the NYC, London and Stockholm data shows.

JS: So why did you suggest 50% happening like soon?

JG; I made that up

JS: Fuck...So your whole "herd immunity" concept thing is dead?

JG; Dead as a duck....yep culled the herd shit by over half, its a goner.

JS: But you said it was alive last week?

JG: Jack I was speaking "political" not "scientific" then.

JS: So Johan when do you speak "scientific"?

JG: Only occasionally these days..you know how it goes.

JS. Jesus fucking Christ. So when does this antibody testing you speak of start happening in Sweden or the UK?

JG: No idea ...is Sweden doing that??

JS: Mother of God..So basically Johan you have just been pulling Swedish CONVID political shit out of your arse and casting it on the world stage to make you Viking lot look like geniuses??

JG: I would prefer words easing and super warrior geniuses.

JS: No worries mate ..great interview as usual. Someone get me out of here before I kill this cunt.

JG: But what about our next one??

JS: Next fucking what Johan the Murderer??

JG: You know the interview about my theory Boris Johnson is the host for my bad flu. The Chinese aren't to blame and why we put more IKEA pieces in to drive you lot mad with leftovers.

JS: Sure Dr Gorballs get your people to contact my people.

............................................

Just a more serious note.

It is pretty clear by the data Sweden is going to get fucking belted.

However to their credit the social question of what is an acceptable mortality rate Sweden appears to have answered and accepted a high one. Higher again versus prediction that a domestic issue for them.

The Government appears to have facilitated that with no national objection so far. That is their decision and should be respected from those outside. Most Government's don't facilitate that discussion domestically and even if the Swedish administration haven't quite done that, many think they have. 

However when some lying Swedish cocksucker who has moved from science to political shitfuckery and starts preaching on the international stage he can stick that shit up his blond Viking arse. 

Note: Declared interest. I have a child in the Netherlands and another in a another country, a front line Paramedic who tells me stuff that makes your hair curl. The latter makes me very scathing of those that promote this is "only a bad flu" whack-job narrative. Also explains my Covid global interest.

 

[d'ranger]

While writing I see Jack's answer above, so will add that a couple of things different there: about 50% were already working from home, low birth rate and small families, pretty disciplined. As mentioned above it's a one year strategy and imo likely to fail but the wild card is immunity - if it turns out that being infected and surviving does not equate to immunity then this is a disaster.

So similar to opening up Las Vegas it's a giant control group. Personally I started limiting interactions in Feb. and by March1 really shut it down as much as possible. There will be treatments and/or vaccines and until then want to limit exposures as much as possible.  Hoping for the best for all of us and would be really happy to be in Canada or NZ instead of Texas. oh well. Note: I limit my shitfights and razor sharp cutting witticisms to PA so invite anyone that feels the need to castigate me just drop by, it's a few doors down the hall.

 

[jack_sparrow]

While writing I see Jack's answer above, so will add that a couple of things different there: about 50% were already working from home, low birth rate and small families, pretty disciplined. 

Yes super important..they are more lock-down than it appears by culture etc.

An extraordinarily large number of people live alone courtesy of some decades old Swedish Govt social engineering.

The Swedes are the world's original social distancers by culture. This pic courtesy of @The Dark Knight the OP of this thread says it all. Anyone who has spent time in Sweden will recognise this is not an exaggeration.

 

[The Dark Knight]

One thing that is not mentioned in Swedish media is the ethnicity of the deaths in Sweden. It seems that immigrant death rates are much higher than it is for ethnic Swedes. This was mentioned to me recently by a Swedish friend. Part of the problem is that they live in ghetto with a far greater population density and culturally very different to Swedes. As a result the lack of enforced social distancing allows covid-19 to run rampant in their communities.

But that's an acceptable outcome for Swedes. 

Sweden wants the world think that Sweden is welcoming to all and thus are better than everyone else. But that is once again is lust Swedish smoke and mirrors. The Swedish mentality is that the refugees should be grateful that they are allowed to live in the greatest country on earth and are being financially supported. Sweden pretty much accepts that many immigrants will never work in Sweden, but that's ok because Swedes are happy to pay for that because the children will become Swedes. Swedes forget that in many cultures there is a matter of pride for the man to work and support his family. So whilst in high immigration countries like Aus and Canada, unemployment levels for immigrants and locals is similar, in Sweden it is vastly different. Sweden has systemic racism and even Swedish papers have reported that CV's with foreign name get ignored and the same CV with a Swedish sounding name progresses further.

Swedes on the whole are happy to have immigrants, as long as they don't move into their neighbourhood. Swedes are no less racist than many other countries.

The high immigrant infection and death rate is not an issue for Swedes as if they were more like Swedes then they would be ok.   

 

[jack_sparrow]

One thing that is not mentioned in Swedish media is the ethnicity of the deaths in Sweden. It seems that immigrant death rates are much higher than it is for ethnic Swedes.

Hop that is a global thing. Stats in UK USA etc aligning up. Mostly socio economic and understandable ..some suggesting though a higher risk genological thing but too early to tell.