The Swedish Experiment

[BlatantEcho]

it's weird though how many of those full lockdown countries have already recovered much of their GDP with a few hundred or thousand deaths though, isn't it?  Whatcha think we fucked up so bad that they didn't?

The IMF disagrees with you, they wrote how the economic decline is worse than anticipated:

https://blogs.imf.org/2020/06/24/reopening-from-the-great-lockdown-uneven-and-uncertain-recovery/

 

[BlatantEcho]

This is an article in a libertarian magazine, so, you can all ignore it since it's not the NY Times, even though it's based on CDC data:
https://reason.com/2020/06/24/as-covid-19-infections-rise-patients-are-getting-younger/
 

(bolding mine)

" Last month the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated that the risk of death for people with COVID-19 symptoms is just 0.05 percent among patients younger than 50.
That risk rises to 0.2 percent among 50-to-64-year-olds and 1.3 percent among people 65 or older."

That means, for these age brackets:

- Under 50:   Covid19 is about 60% LESS deadly the the common flu    (Covid-19 survival rate: 99.95%)
- Age 50-64:  Covid is about 35% more deadly than the flu  (Covid-19 survival rate: 99.8%)
- Age 65+: Covid is about 10x more deadly than the flu  (Covid-19 survival rate 98.3%)

Let that sink in a bit in the context of the world's reaction to this virus.

 

[furr_ball]

maths is really not your strength 

from your own cdc

your death rate is 5%

 

[Guest]

anyway what have the swedes ever done for us?

Dynamite, ok we'll give then that at least... but other than that what have they ever done for us?

Celsius, ok Dynamite and Celsius, but apart from Dynamite and Celsius what have the Swedes ever done for us eh?

Ships Propellers, alright Dynamite and Celsius and Ships propellers, but apart from that what have really they done for us?

The Defibrilator, tetra pak, safety belt, the nobel prize, the pacemaker, Dynamite and Celsius, ships propellers but come on seriously other than that what have the swedes done for us?

 

[MRS OCTOPUS]

Is it not a little early to be staking our colours to the mast of the good ship " This is really, really, really deadly and the shy is falling in" , when articles, such as:

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/twenty-million-americans-may-have-had-covid-19-as-new-cases-surge-20200626-p556c4.html

appear?. Is the data really "IN" so conclusions can be drawn?


Twenty million Americans may have had COVID-19 as new cases surge


US officials believe as many as 20 million Americans have contracted the coronavirus, suggesting millions of people have had COVID-19 and never knew it.

The figure is nearly 10 times as many infections as the 2.3 million cases that have been confirmed,

......

JUST ASK"N

 

[Albatros]

anyway what have the swedes ever done for us?

Dynamite, ok we'll give then that at least... but other than that what have they ever done for us?

Celsius, ok Dynamite and Celsius, but apart from Dynamite and Celsius what have the Swedes ever done for us eh?

Ships Propellers, alright Dynamite and Celsius and Ships propellers, but apart from that what have really they done for us?

The Defibrilator, tetra pak, safety belt, the nobel prize, the pacemaker, Dynamite and Celsius, ships propellers but come on seriously other than that what have the swedes done for us?

you forgot about the majestik møøse

 

[Guest]

yeah but sweden...

 

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Albatros said:

you forgot about the majestik møøse

ha ha!!!

 

[furr_ball]

edited to include quote

 

[furr_ball]

Is not a little early to be staking our colours to the mast of the good ship " This is really deadly and the shy is falling in" , when articles, such as:

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/twenty-million-americans-may-have-had-covid-19-as-new-cases-surge-20200626-p556c4.html

appear?. Is the data really "IN" so conclusions can be drawn?


Twenty million Americans may have had COVID-19 as new cases surge


US officials believe as many as 20 million Americans have contracted the coronavirus, suggesting millions of people have had COVID-19 and never knew it.

The figure is nearly 10 times as many infections as the 2.3 million cases that have been confirmed,

agreed

nothing final yet

guess have an issue with the story...... this is just a flu....less than a flu etc

there is enough data to suggest that is not the case

in the alternative......... why are many excellent medical people seriously concerned if there is no reason to be concerned?

 

[Ease the sheet.]

Is it not a little early to be staking our colours to the mast of the good ship " This is really, really, really deadly and the shy is falling in" , when articles, such as:

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/twenty-million-americans-may-have-had-covid-19-as-new-cases-surge-20200626-p556c4.html

appear?. Is the data really "IN" so conclusions can be drawn?


Twenty million Americans may have had COVID-19 as new cases surge


US officials believe as many as 20 million Americans have contracted the coronavirus, suggesting millions of people have had COVID-19 and never knew it.

The figure is nearly 10 times as many infections as the 2.3 million cases that have been confirmed,

......

JUST ASK"N

And I may have fucked your grand mother.

You idiot.

 

[Ease the sheet.]

anyway what have the swedes ever done for us?

Dynamite, ok we'll give then that at least... but other than that what have they ever done for us?

Celsius, ok Dynamite and Celsius, but apart from Dynamite and Celsius what have the Swedes ever done for us eh?

Ships Propellers, alright Dynamite and Celsius and Ships propellers, but apart from that what have really they done for us?

The Defibrilator, tetra pak, safety belt, the nobel prize, the pacemaker, Dynamite and Celsius, ships propellers but come on seriously other than that what have the swedes done for us?

 

[MRS OCTOPUS]

And I may have fucked your grand mother.

Really?

 

[The Dark Knight]

anyway what have the swedes ever done for us?

Dynamite, ok we'll give then that at least... but other than that what have they ever done for us?

Celsius, ok Dynamite and Celsius, but apart from Dynamite and Celsius what have the Swedes ever done for us eh?

Ships Propellers, alright Dynamite and Celsius and Ships propellers, but apart from that what have really they done for us?

The Defibrilator, tetra pak, safety belt, the nobel prize, the pacemaker, Dynamite and Celsius, ships propellers but come on seriously other than that what have the swedes done for us?

 

[Keith]

anyway what have the swedes ever done for us?

Dynamite, ok we'll give then that at least... but other than that what have they ever done for us?

Celsius, ok Dynamite and Celsius, but apart from Dynamite and Celsius what have the Swedes ever done for us eh?

Ships Propellers, alright Dynamite and Celsius and Ships propellers, but apart from that what have really they done for us?

The Defibrilator, tetra pak, safety belt, the nobel prize, the pacemaker, Dynamite and Celsius, ships propellers but come on seriously other than that what have the swedes done for us?

easy,

 

[Keith]

 

[jack_sparrow]

Let that sink in a bit in the context of the world's reaction to this virus.

Took a bite of it...thinking it smelt and tasted like shit should smell and taste like.....shortly thereafter that original thought turned out to be true, with the addition it now also "steamed" and "floated," not "sinking" as you claimed.

 

[jack_sparrow]

JUST ASK"N

You do a lot of that but not a lot of "say'n".

 

[Willin']

anyway what have the swedes ever done for us?

Dynamite, ok we'll give then that at least... but other than that what have they ever done for us?

Celsius, ok Dynamite and Celsius, but apart from Dynamite and Celsius what have the Swedes ever done for us eh?

Ships Propellers, alright Dynamite and Celsius and Ships propellers, but apart from that what have really they done for us?

The Defibrilator, tetra pak, safety belt, the nobel prize, the pacemaker, Dynamite and Celsius, ships propellers but come on seriously other than that what have the swedes done for us?

Really?

 

[Amati]

Rob I feel like a prick disagreeing with you the sensible and thinking Covid one, but I must. So to respect that I have to go "word salad" which bores many to death and some repeats from my posts elsewhere that refer to Sweden. 

Any Swedes who have dialled in please don't read this as criticism. It is hopefully an impartial appraisal.

Yes Rob as you say the Jury is out on Sweden as most countries but IMHO this is a case of OJ Simpson is in the dock. 

The prosecutions case is assisted by the fact the Swedes to their credit unlike many have transparent and readily available Covid data. Flip side is they are masters at spinning it for political gain domestically and maybe internationally and that should be judged accordingly.

Their approach being the odd man out in Europe, if not globally, means a lot of people with very large epidemiology heads have been examining their virus response approach and outcomes in a lot of detail compared to others, not just because it is contry to theirs. Without that I couldn't write this.

So starting see graph below on Euro virus responses.

View attachment 356604

Their expert examination is aided by the fact Professor Johan Giesecke, is one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, an advisor to the Swedish Government, WHO and ECDPC scientist. He also appears to be the face of Sweden's response not so much Anders Tegnell directing Swedish strategy. Maybe that's a media thing. As you can see from what follows, maybe not.

Typically Swedish very blunt about what he thinks which is refreshing. For instance he is scathing of the UK's response. That is principally due to the fact that up until 16 March (implemented a week later, see above graph), the UK were mirroring the Swedes. This is not widely appreciated in the UK due to some slight of hand political shitfuckery there. 

However because of that late UTurn by the UK their outcomes become very instructive for the EU.

While many disagree with his approach they do appear to respect him very highly as a scientist.

Is Sweden That Different.

Firstly the appearance that Sweden's approach is literally one of ignore COVID is false. That being they have solely a "mitigation/herd immunity" strategy. That is literally only some "hand washing" and maybe isolate those most at risk. That is incorrect. They have a "mitigation' and "suppresion" hybrid approach as follows.

- Large groupings outside normal day to day business are prohibited.

- An extraordinarily large number of people live alone courtesy of some decades old Swedish Govt social engineering.

- The Swedes are the world's original social distancers by culture. This pic courtesy of @The Dark Knight the OP of this thread says it all. Anyone who has spent time in Sweden will recognise this is not an exaggeration.

View attachment 358630

- Apart from the above their viral response is textbook "mitigation" so no test/trace and so any reliable case data is only that produced via the hospital front door. Much like the UK and US and exact opposite to say Germany in their same postcode.  

Therefore with the above caveat on case data, Sweden's Active Cases and Daily Case numbers as they relate to impacting upon hospital admissions can be regarded as reasonably reliable for broadbrush comparisons for trajectory only. Sweden is arguably looking more towards a plateau than a peak. Iceland having that with no lock down and the UK with late lockdown are headed maybe instructive. 

View attachment 359923

Why have Sweden adopted this "go it alone" strategy?

- One of the worst health care systems in Europe so the economic loss of "suppression" versus "saving lives" is a closer equation for Sweden.

- They have a higher proportion of over 65's compared to Europe so on paper are at risk, but they are located outside more dense locales like Stockholm and older people transmit less. Younger people transmit more, but less chance of ending up in body bag. The US with NYC and UK with London have a similiar demographic.

- Neighbourly considerations. Sweden immediate neighbours are Norway to the north which while in single market, free movement of people etc, is not in the EU Common Market so there is an element of existing border controls to reduce impact upon them. The comparative numbers show that has worked.

The other the Netherlands in the EU to the south were a very early lock down country as shown in the above graph. Interestingly there is an argument they have not benefited by  having Sweden as a neighbour even with that.

- The Government know they are not doing a true "mitagation/herd immunity" strategy but  a "hybrid" as outlined above, so covering their bets to some extent.

- Finally the social question every country faces and it's Government faces? What is an acceptable mortality rate? The Swedes simply are prepared to 

Observations

I can't cite the following observations as it would take for ever. However they are only drawn direct from global epidemiology leaders like Sweden's Giesecke and the UK's Ferguson and others. No crackpots or media interpretations.

- Sweden is still seeing day-on-day increases in death and infection rates, whereas places like the UK which is not brilliant in terms of testing and death rate it's has now fallen to below R1 for infection (how many people one person can infect).

- Regardless of what Sweden has done the Infection-Fatality Rate in cities or regions of higher population are all in the same range 0.7 - 0.9% with the only difference being demographics etc.

- Sweden claim with mitigation the correct policy is only to protect those most at risk only and this will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product.” Putting aside that globally isolating those at risk has not worked including in Sweden, Sweden claims the flattening of any curves is due to the most vulnerable dying first. That may well be true but Sweden goes one step further and says that is as much to do with a lockdown as anything else. So to interrogate that.

- The infection rate will always tell the right not a different story. For instance taking the largest sources of mortality with similiar demographics being London, Stockholm and New York where both London and New York closed down arguably later than they should have putting their respective health care systems on the edge of imploding and Stockholm with no close down and similarly so but having already accepted as a nation a higher mortality rate.

They all have an infection crate within 5% of a band between 20 - 25%. Furthermore this undermines Sweden's thoughts that a much higher "herd immunity" rate as a “by-product” of say 60% or higher can be produced. If it had been produced with the above 0.7 - 0.9% CFR existing in those three cities, Stockholm would be a killing field.

- Overlaying this is there being no evidence yet that prior exposure to COVID guarantees any level of immunity. The WHO have been saying this for weeks to warn countries of the folly attached to Immunity Passports.

- Sweden are claiming that post lock-down other countries fatality rate will pick up which not many will dispute. However the further claim being they will then catch to Sweden (who has not incurred the economic impact of a close down) is solely based upon Sweden enjoying "herd immunity."

Yet the sole underlying foundation to Sweden's thoughts is "herd immunity" will be achieved but with a higher front end shock. The problem is that 'herd immunity" hasn't occured. 

So using the three cities on a per capita basis Stockholm has climbed/is climbing the ladder faster with the benefit of hoping for a larger parachute than London and NYC. The reality is all three after lock-downs are done, all three have the same sized parachute within +/- 2.5%.

Conclusion

To paraphrase Professor Johan Giesecke on behalf of Sweden only a week ago and which he has guided Sweden's response according to him, which on the evidence appears true.

"Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people." 

Now the gloves come off.

That from Giesecke a scientist who may or may not ever ever ventured inside a hospital and or has any clinical experience with respiratory viruses. From one who has and is working on the front line involving body bags not sitting behind a desk writing papers and is comparing CONVID to the flu as follows:

"This is as different as Ebola is from an ingrown toenail.

This is a very very different disease"  ..."Normally, a viral or bacterial infection of the lung will cause it to fill with fluid and pussy tissue as a consequen ce of the infection. That isn't what happens with Covid -19. What they are seeing is that there  is something wrong with the blood vessels in the lung."  Intensive Care Specialist Professor Hugh Montgomery 7 April - London UK.

Yes Rob I'm a ventriloquist. The place to go on SA if you want to know "How Covid-19 Kills You" by @RobG

So back to the Swedish brainfart extraordinary.

Even those into writing papers down the road from Sweden in the Netherlands underwriting what Montgomery has said above.

- 3 April - COVID-19: A Comprehensive Pathophysiological Approach 

OR maybe this and experiences predating the brainfart from Stockholm a week ago from the US.

cardiovascular/thrombotic/Covid characteristics 

Then again to finish to paraphrase from my daughter the Paramedic on the frontline.

"Dad they should have been with a Blood/O2 less than 40 fucking stone dead, but these people were still talking and lucid and we get some to hospital and they end up Ok we are told..... Yet we get others down a bit on O2 normal and happy to walk to the truck unassisted and they have a friggin heart attack.. bang dead on the spot even with Defrib before getting some out their front door...this virus and heart attack shit every 5 minutes is driving us insane."..."Shit ..are you eating well darling??..

 So Professor Johan "it's only a mild disease and similar to the flu" Giesecke have you got anything to say about the above frontline experiences, work and procured knowledge of the above people numbering in thousands around the globe?  I thought not. Just a bit of Swedish political propaganda hoping no one will notice mate.

....................................

The Interview the Swedish Govt have Tried to Ban Internationaly

Anyway haven't quite finished with you yet Professor Johan. You say again last week paraphrasing;

"The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%. At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available"

So OK Johan would you mind to finish this (you) off quickly after your bad flu political shitfuckery happy to go to a Q&A format?

JG. No problem I'm Swedish...and yes the only bad flu thing I may have embellished. Forgive me.

JS: Mate your fatality rate of 0.1% you said just last week you are happy with that in terms of what world experts are saying? It seems low depending on locale?

JG: It's looking shakey...can I pass on that one?

JS:  OK Johan just this once. Your 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden having already had the disease?

JG: No that is wrong it's around 20- 25% at best as the NYC, London and Stockholm data shows.

JS: So why did you suggest 50% happening like soon?

JG; I made that up

JS: Fuck...So your whole "herd immunity" concept thing is dead?

JG; Dead as a duck....yep culled the herd shit by over half, its a goner.

JS: But you said it was alive last week?

JG: Jack I was speaking "political" not "scientific" then.

JS: So Johan when do you speak "scientific"?

JG: Only occasionally these days..you know how it goes.

JS. Jesus fucking Christ. So when does this antibody testing you speak of start happening in Sweden or the UK?

JG: No idea ...is Sweden doing that??

JS: Mother of God..So basically Johan you have just been pulling Swedish CONVID political shit out of your arse and casting it on the world stage to make you Viking lot look like geniuses??

JG: I would prefer words easing and super warrior geniuses.

JS: No worries mate ..great interview as usual. Someone get me out of here before I kill this cunt.

JG: But what about our next one??

JS: Next fucking what Johan the Murderer??

JG: You know the interview about my theory Boris Johnson is the host for my bad flu. The Chinese aren't to blame and why we put more IKEA pieces in to drive you lot mad with leftovers.

JS: Sure Dr Gorballs get your people to contact my people.

............................................

Just a more serious note.

It is pretty clear by the data Sweden is going to get fucking belted.

However to their credit the social question of what is an acceptable mortality rate Sweden appears to have answered and accepted a high one. Higher again versus prediction that a domestic issue for them.

The Government appears to have facilitated that with no national objection so far. That is their decision and should be respected from those outside. Most Government's don't facilitate that discussion domestically and even if the Swedish administration haven't quite done that, many think they have. 

However when some lying Swedish cocksucker who has moved from science to political shitfuckery and starts preaching on the international stage he can stick that shit up his blond Viking arse. 

Note: Declared interest. I have a child in the Netherlands and another in a another country, a front line Paramedic who tells me stuff that makes your hair curl. The latter makes me very scathing of those that promote this is "only a bad flu" whack-job narrative. Also explains my Covid global interest.

I like the bus stop analogy for Swedish normal social interaction distancing.  I was raised Danish American, and our neighbor, Norwegian, and we were joking that the 6’ social distancing rule is a bit confining, since 10’ is way more comfortable.  Part of the problem with social distancing in Western Washington State is that the Scandinavian freeze isn’t what it used to be,  

Anyway, the book ‘World War Z’ is looking more and more like a popular cultural analogue of differing national response to COVID 19.  Science filtered by culture!  I‘m shocked.  And in culturally diverse countries, it begs for diverse approaches.  By this I specifically mean effective PPE for anyone who wants it.  Most won’t even care, as Eva Dent, but it seems insane to count on cloth masks and social distancing when 70-80% of a population just won’t do even that. If the line is that masks are a choice, and you make the choice to wear one, it should be a mask appropriate to reality:  if people want to breath in your face without a filter, you need protection from that. The argument that n95’s (for example) are only for the medical establishment is based on a sadistic entertainment promulgated by Trump and his buddies in the Senate that is based on the notion that it’s  more fun to limit essentials and watch people fight each other for them.  Think about it: this is Trump’s managerial style, and has always been, pitting people against each other. The Trump administration was warned by manufacturers of n95 masks that there was a shortage months before COVID-19 happened, and Trump did nothing. I’d argue Trump made it worse by insisting in reliance on foreign manufacture, China specifically.  

So yes, culture matters.....