The Third Booster Shot Debate - Are U going to get the booster?

Lark

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Tharsheblows said:
Yes, giving FDA approval within three months of the application being filed without the standard referral to an independent panel and waiting for the results of the various recommended studies greatly cheapens the reputation and integrity of the FDA.  No,  the scarier the disease the faster the regulators act.  They require less time to evaluate duration of immunity or vaccine stability.   They care mostly about safety and immediate efficacy when people are dying faster then the hospitals can invoice the bills.

I have a lot of friends in the medical field who are very smart people who truly want the best for everyone who don't seem to understand that the "political pressure" and head strong confidence may be doing more damage than good.  And the damage may be long lasting.

I personally think that the vaccines are an important part of the solution but we should openly acknowledge that the official position went from:

1) one shot for immunity; to    As a non expert with practical insight, I’ve been predicting multiple shots with the need for a booster (I think I guessed 6 month, not 8) since February 2020.

2) ok, maybe we need two shots for full immunity in some cases; to

3) even if you are fully vaccinated (two shots) you can still replicate and transmit the virus so you have to still behave as if you are unvaccinated (which doesn't typically happen at any appreciable level with truly effective vaccines for other viruses); to   I also mentioned that possibility many months ago, as a reason the virus wouldn’t go away.   It is also the reason masks remain important.

4) you can still get COVID if you are fully vaccinated but almost all the most seriously ill patients in the hospital are unvaccinated...so go get vaccinated; to

5) Oops!, almost half the seriously ill patients in the hospitals in Israel were fully vaccinated we probably will need a third shot; to    cite?   Very different then the August 23 CDC data.   Also what is the percent vaccinated in Israel.   Ironically when most people get vaccinated most cases will be breakthroughs.

5) we need a booster at about 6 months because immunity levels have probably dropped to somewhere below 50% but this booster shot will likely be the last one you need (despite being wrong about many things so far).

for once we agree.    I suspect at the very least those about to undergo medical treatments that will weaken the immune system, like chemo and radiation, will be told to get a booster for the foreseeable future.

I think a much more effective message would be: 

1) Of course this vaccine is very new and experimental, the disease is brand new;

2) we admit we don't fully know what we are doing but we seem to be making good progress at a historical record pace;

3) so far vaccines have been quite effective albeit shorter term than we had hoped;

4) we don't fully understand the range of the side effects but so far severe side effects seem to be quite rare (and here is a transparent view of what we know so you can see for yourself);

5) we have no need to silence dissenting voices regardless of their merit becasue having studied science we know that many scientific breakthroughs throughout history have been directly due to dissenting minority voices...so much so that the "Scientific Method" includes the step of "Peer Review" whereby vigorous criticism of any result or conclusion is explicitly invited. 

6) its your body and forced or coerced participation in medical experimentation is abhorrent behavior;  fine, but lock the non vaccinated in their homes like plague houses.   More realistically, a smokers type surcharge on your health insurance so you don’t drive up my premiums.   Take a number if your avoidance puts you in a crises and I also need the hospital bed despite masking up and taking a shot,   DO NOt go anywhere near my mother.   Have your groceries delivered, don’t exercise, don’t do the things she wants to do,   80% of vaccine breaks resulting in hospitalization were people over 65 so unvaccinated people are not allowed anywhere older people want to be.  (CDC)

7) we encourage you to educate yourself and make a decision for yourself and your loved ones;  and like we do with other disease, we hold you responsible for endangering your kids.  That may mean loss of custody as an unfit parent.

8) we (the medical community) have enough confidence in the vaccines that we taken it personally and recommended it to the people we most love (to the degree that is true); and

9) because only about 36% of the nearly 8 billion people on the planet are vaccinated, we realize that any plan that depends on "everyone getting vaccinated" is very likely unrealistic any time soon so research into alternative solutions is OK too and not a threat to the "vaccine solution"   Actually the point I made about shutdowns 16 months ago.    I expect travel limitations to be enforced to variable degrees for the next couple years, especially for unvaccinated people.    Since us vaccine certificates are easily faked all Americans will be assumed to be Q anon  spreaders.

Regarding your follow up post to Steam, the truth is not dependent on speech,   It depends on evidence and objective analysis.   Belief, wish and opinion belong in theology.   Internet liars are not contributing speech, just bullshit.   I’m happy to debate the flaws in the regulatory process.   Our understanding of the virus and disease have evolved, but many chose not to understand.  The behavior of a virus is complex and often appears random on any scale less then a population.   Host factors, virus load, etc. That doesn’t forgive armchair experts who never took a single class in virology thinking they have a snowball’s chance in hell of knowing more then the experts.

Steam is right, this is unusual in that we have a decent vaccine and people that prefer disease.   It’s smallpox inoculations they had some excuse.    I believe it’s the apparent randomness.   People often seem to be punished for good decisions or rewarded for being foolish.   Intermittent reward is a strong training aid.   The virus is training us to be stupid.

 
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Lark

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I thought that the efficacy of a vaccine in stopping infection and transmission was one of the most important criteria for approving a vaccine.  In fact isn't there criteria that stipulates a metric to monitor.  The reason being that any vaccine that doesn't stop infection and transmission can create an environment where the virus mutates under vaccine selective pressure i.e. lead to harder to control variants.
No.   There are approved vaccines, such as some used in livestock, that stop clinical disease (economic loss and animal suffering) with the realization the disease will always be on the farm.   Instead of killing off the herd and starting over, sometimes the farmer decides that is the best decision.

 

d'ranger

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Great, all we need here is another Mikey.  Improve the message? Sure, even a caveman can do it if he gets a do over. Not bothering with the rest of your blather. Except - places that don't control the virus through vaccines/masks/whatever is necessary can kiss tourism goodbye. The smart ones won't accept anyone from the USA until either enough people come to their senses or die. 

Today had a conversation with our vet (not about horse worming) and he was lamenting about a client earlier who was telling his staff how sorry she felt for all the pour souls who were vaccinated as their intestines were rotting and they would all be dying soon. YCMTSU (well someone did and she believed it)

Bullshit travels fast and truth never seems to catch up thanks to the internet and everybody is an expert.

The knowns are: the vaccines work as stated when released to the public. We are now dealing with Delta which has increased infection of those vaccinated and it looks like a 3rd shot will be available soon - earlier in this thread I posted an article that discussed this including that the polio vaccine required 4 to give lifelong protection.

I am not an expert in any field but for topics I care about I read voraciously to understand and this is one of those - there are a number of highly regarded experts available - TSBs is not one of them.  The end.

 

Lark

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Sorry if I was less then patient.  These are stressful times.   Meanwhile going in early.   A key vaccinated employee called off.   Her unvaccinated husband gave it to her children, under 12.   I fully expect to lose my chance to social isolate on Erie in three weeks, thanks to a community that refuses to vaccinate.   Two vacations lost to the rona.   Bastards all.    

 

Steam Flyer

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I thought that the efficacy of a vaccine in stopping infection and transmission was one of the most important criteria for approving a vaccine.  ...
Well, that shows the level of your thought process. Google the definition of VACCINE and see.

The vaccine.... any vaccine... is a jump-start for your immune system. It does not (cannot) "shield" one from the virus or bacteria. There was never any belief or intention that any vaccine "keeps you from catching" the disease (except by stupid people).

A vaccine reduces the severity of the disease... in many cases, such as polio, it reduces the disease to insignifigance. In the case of virus, there's no question that being vaccinated means that you cannot be infected with the virus and therefor have the virus using your cells to reproduce. Vaccination does not and never pretended to do that.

Therefor, people vaccinated for covid were never in question of not shedding virus, potentially infecting others. The question is, at what level? How infectious would they be to others? This is a difficult question to answer, and it looks like variants of this virus have different asnwers... some of them bad.

Oh and did you look up what a titer/titre is, and what it's for?

Glad you're interested in science, you have a lot to learn. I'm here to help

- DSK

 

Steam Flyer

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Tharsheblows said:
Without entering in an extended debate let me just make some quick (hopefully uncontroversial) points.

1.  Nobody set out to develop a two shot vaccine.  The two shot vaccines just were merely vaccines that were not initially effective enough during the trials without the second dose.  I believe Pfizer's was roughly 50% effective after one dose but 95% effective after two.  This is not a strong criticism of the Pfizer vaccine as the requirement of taking a second dose is a small concession for 95% immunity and the vaccines (all of them) are incredible scientific achievements (even if they fall short of the effectiveness that we had hoped for).

2) There is a lot of censoring of alleged "misinformation" on social media (deplateforming and demonetizing) and ad hominen attacks on well qualified critics.  This is almost always an unpersuasive technique to counter or dispel such "misinformation" because it is widely recognized as a very common method used by those who wish to suppress an inconvenient truth, historically.  Thus having the effect of fueling rather than dispelling "misinformation." 

It is well understood that the "truth" is best discovered by allowing more speech rather than less speech.  This reasoning is the basis of the 1st amendment in the US, and it is the basis for our adversarial criminal and civil Court system (both prosecution and defense are allowed to speak to the jury), and it is recognized as a critical part of scientific progress and achievement through the inclusion of the "Peer Review" step of the Scientific Method.  

3)  As far as I can tell the FDA provided an unprecedentedly accelerated approval of the vaccine.  Much of the standard process was skipped and the approval was granted before many of the appropriately requested studies have been completed, much less analyzed.  Further, the accelerated FDA approval was not necessary to allow people to have access to the vaccines as there was (and still is) an Emergency Use Authorization.  I can only speculate that the reasoning for the accelerated approval was either: 1) to allow the mandates to be on more solid legal ground (mandating an unapproved drug is almost certainly unlawful), and/or 2) to persuade those who wanted to wait until the FDA approved the vaccine to go ahead and get vaccinated. 

If true (please note that this is a big condition precedent), both or either of those reasons are very inappropriate because the reason the FDA approval is given so much credibility (legally and with individuals) is because the FDA approval process  has become very well know to be quite careful and thorough.  By bypassing this careful and thorough process, the future meaning of "FDA approval" has been significantly altered which will almost certainly have unpredictable future negative consequences, especially if the yet-to-be-performed studies reveal any significant safety issues.

I hope there is a more thoughtful and responsible reason for the greatly accelerated FDA approval but I have not heard anyone present any viable theories yet.


Nope, #3 is bullshit. The FDA approval of the covid vaccines included all three final stages of trials, and were tried on ~40,000 human subjects which is more than twice the size of normal trials.

The process was accelerated because we are in the throes of a historic plague. Two, actually

- DSK

 

Kate short for Bob

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Nope, #3 is bullshit. The FDA approval of the covid vaccines included all three final stages of trials, and were tried on ~40,000 human subjects which is more than twice the size of normal trials.
You really have no idea do you?

Phase 3 trials have NOT been completed.  They are time dependent and unless Pzifer started trials BEFORE Covid-19 was discovered the it is impossible for them to be completed!

Further supposedly for ethical reasons blinded randomised control trials have been virtually abandoned with the majority of those receiving placebos having been vaccinated.

 

Raz'r

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You really have no idea do you?

Phase 3 trials have NOT been completed.  They are time dependent and unless Pzifer started trials BEFORE Covid-19 was discovered the it is impossible for them to be completed!

Further supposedly for ethical reasons blinded randomised control trials have been virtually abandoned with the majority of those receiving placebos having been vaccinated.
Shit for Brains, indeed

 
A

Amati

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So far the drop off that's been shared with the public is in protection against infection. For instance, the CDC just published some papers and they are consistent with an unchanged (statically) level of protection from hospitalization and death from the mrna vaccines over 24 weeks:

Sustained Effectiveness of Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna Vaccines Against COVID-19 Associated Hospitalizations Among Adults — United States, March–July 2021 | MMWR

Effectiveness of Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna Vaccines in Preventing SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Nursing Home Residents Before and During Widespread Circulation of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta) Variant — National Healthcare Safety Network, March 1–August 1, 2021 | MMWR

New COVID-19 Cases and Hospitalizations Among Adults, by Vaccination Status — New York, May 3–July 25, 2021 | MMWR

AFAIK, long lasting "sterilizing" protection is not typical of vaccines used in humans and the drop off in it was to be expected. Which begs the questions: why boosters and why so quickly?
Hotez was saying the other day that the MRNA vaccines were intended to be 3 dose from the beginning: I fear the reliance on a 2 shot regime is the usual politics of dancing ( a predictable side effect of wishing magick ) more than anything, ooh wah ooh….

 

NeedAClew

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Saw my surgeon today for 1 week follow-up. She said go get Moderna #3 soon as I can to allow it to perk 2 weeks before next round of treatment. I trust her. 

 

slug zitski

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For those of you who are vaccinated, what do you think?

Are you going to take the booster shot?

Obviously there has been no trial on effect of the booster shot. Pfizer has indicated that it thinks the vaccine starts to fade around 4-6 months. CDC has pushed back on that saying insufficient evidence.  

Im not sure how they conduct a meaningful trial. In theory they would need to take a very large sample of people, giving half the placebo and half a booster shot and see how the numbers hold up vs Delta variant, but they would need to do that very soon.

I never got a certificate due to poor record keeping by hospital so Im thinking about the booster.
I tried to get the booster , moderna , today … but was rejected 

I have no co morbidities 

no exemption for seaman who will be out of the country for several months 

this is unfortunate and overly bureaucratic 

 

Wright Way

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It just keeps looking like Delta has a special plan for the Israelis

91-DIVOC-countries-normalized-Israel (2).png

91-DIVOC-countries-normalized-Israel (1).png

 

accnick

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Well no boosters for all per CDC advisory group. 16-2

Then unanimous for certain groups.

Lack of safety and effectiveness data.

https://apnews.com/article/fda-panel-rejects-widespread-pfizer-booster-shots-1cd1cf6a5c5c02b63f8a7324807a59f1

Well, I got Moderna #3 an hour before the news. Urged by my surgeon, both oncologists. 

I will let you know if it kills me.


With the proposed booster guidelines, both of us will be eligible for a Pfizer booster when our eight-month gap is completed in early October.

 

accnick

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/bad-advice-on-covid-vaccine-boosters-fda-advisory-panel-11631920749  click the x on the popup and no paywall 

Well yeah, but too bad for the 60 year olds. The vaccine place today was not exactly busy. Crickets. No newly vaccinated people snapping selfies the way the eager vaxxers did last spring. 
I suspect (and hope) it won't be the zoo it was a year ago, when we were pretty desperate to get an appointment. It was pretty much the Hunger Games to get an appointment back then.

Did you have side effects from the first two, and how did the third compare in that regard?

 

NeedAClew

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1st: severe arm pain 3 days, couldn't lift arm to shoulder level

2nd: headache, chills, fever 103

3rd: dunno yet 

Mr Clew had a slightly sore arm for 1 &2.

 

NeedAClew

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Yeah, one wonders what the politics are in the yes, no, maybe decisions.  Good news for you is Walgreens has good scheduling. YOU CAN DOWNLOAD FORMS AND FILL OUT IN ADVANCE. Nobody round here seems busy vaxxing. Take your CDC card!

 
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