To Hurricane or not to Hurricane 2022...

DryArmour

Super Anarchist
I have been doing severe storm forecasting for almost 30 years. I specialize in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico Tropical Storms/Hurricanes. My job load in 2022 has been historically light. Three Tropical Systems have formed in the Atlantic basin so far this hurricane season. None have reached hurricane status let alone Major Hurricane status. The National Hurricane Center (NOAA) originally forecast 14-21 named storms and 6-10 hurricanes for the 2022 season. That would have been good for business but that isn't likely to happen based on everything I am seeing.

Saharan dust will continue to suppress tropical storm development over the next two weeks. Long-range models only show one mid-Atlantic storm forming in the next 16 days. The image file below takes us out to September 3. IMHO the models are good for about 96 hours so treat this map with a huge grain of salt. With La Nina in effect in the Pacific, conditions should be ripe for a busy season in the Atlantic but the atmosphere is complicated and warm Sea Surface Temperatures are only one component in the Tropical Cyclone equation.

The "normal" peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is September 10th but I don't think that date is going to apply to the 2022 season. More later as things develop...or don't develop.

Here is the original forecast from NOAA: https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/n...J5uyBqYrW9Hm1d42xGhaTbrIhZwwmm6CLOJupJtADMkh4

Atlantic Tropical September.jpg
 

Snaggletooth

SA's Morrelle Compasse
33,763
5,444
Thack you Mark, your insite and abillitey to dissyphere the weathere is allwaye wellome and appreciatted.

We allso haive jkdubs in harmes waye with an awesome forecastteng system at hisse disposalle.......... :)
 

billsreef

Anarchist
653
330
Miami
1661704899794.png


Not liking that red area. The spaghetti from the GFS and & European model runs pretty much encompass everything from Cuba to turning north just before the Bahamas. Going to be one to watch closely.
 

CapDave

Member
391
316
Sint Maarten
In St. Vincent & the Grenadines, just heading down to Grenada in the next couple of days. Invest 91L not looking like a threat right now, but the real season is just getting going......
 

CaptainAhab

Anarchist
844
230
South Australia
The Global weather has obviously been rather fucked this year. The heat waves in the Artic, Europe & Middle East. Yellowstone. Floods/heavy rains in Eastern AU(checkout the Sydney annual rain total with 4 months to go).

Point being. With that amount of divergence the number of Atlantic hurricanes should be extremely low or extremely high. Not the 14+ typical year.
 

DryArmour

Super Anarchist
View attachment 537089

Mark - any thoughts on this here? Looks like late Labor Day weekend could get sporty in the western Gulf and possibly near the southeast coast and Bahamas. (Screengrab from Tropical Tidbits, as the image shows.)
The GFS model has struggled mightily in the last 18 months in the extended period (For my purposes that is beyond the 96-hour forecast window. . The EURO has been better. If I lived in Bermuda, I would be keeping a sharp eye on things over the next week. The key word this week in the Tropical Atlantic will be "RE-CURVE".
 

Santanasailor

Charter Member. Scow Mafia
1,357
706
North Louisiana
What is really going to be interesting is the very warm sea temperatures carrying over to the fall and winter. As is well known, the hurricanes typically distribute the high ocean temperatures to more moderate regions. Without their influence this could set up a warm but snowy year for the Northeast.
 

DryArmour

Super Anarchist
What is really going to be interesting is the very warm sea temperatures carrying over to the fall and winter. As is well known, the hurricanes typically distribute the high ocean temperatures to more moderate regions. Without their influence this could set up a warm but snowy year for the Northeast.
The added Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) certainly may make the NOR'EASTER season more robust early on.
 

Jud - s/v Sputnik

Super Anarchist
6,208
1,701
Canada
The northerly position of the azores high makes transatlantic sailing tedious

View attachment 535246

For folks like me just learning weather stuff, can you elucidate a bit? Just curious by what you mean about the Azores High being so northerly making for tedious sailing. (The thing that strikes me from that pic is that, going Transatlantic W-E, you’d have to go pretty N to clear the AH. But do you mean “tedious” because of light winds on the S side of the high/wide isobar spacing? Just trying to understand a bit more...)

And many thanks @DryArmour, for sharing your experience and insights (which I always read with interest). Incredible learning resource for us all.
 
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Blue Crab

benthivore
16,155
2,598
Outer Banks
This topic leads to some cool illustrations. Check these two. The disturbances come from a fairly specific region and latitudes. Has anyone come up with out-of-box thinking about how to interrupt the air flow? I get that it's a big ask but we just moved a rock from 7 million miles away. Maybe we can do some beneficial climate changing ourselves.
1665585791025.png

1665585841406.png
 

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