Transat Jacques Vabre 2021

Your Mom

Super Anarchist
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They do not say if there will be a penalty for the stopover and the assistance, but truly, I think that the lost time for the repair will be enough a penalty...
As far as I can tell from NOR 20.3, technical stops don't involve penalties as long as you communicate with race management and comply with their directions, and your stop lasts at least 4 hours.  Which, as you suggested, makes sense because you're already losing time for the stop itself plus the diversion in your routing, etc.

 

Fiji Bitter

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Well, not so good news for our good friends on Polka Dot.  They're battling SSW headwinds, and the forecast is for more of the same, much, much more.  

A large and powerful non-tropical area of low pressure located
several hundred miles southeast of Cape Race Newfoundland is
producing a broad area of showers, gale to near-hurricane-force
winds, and dangerous seas across portions of the north-central
Atlantic. Although the chance for subtropical development continues
to decrease as it moves over much cooler waters, this system is
forecast to intensify into a hurricane-force extratropical low by
tonight.


There doesn't seem to be a way for them to transit back across to the nice Portugal Northerly trade that's developed, and is shooting the rest of the fleet past Finisterre.

It was a gutsy call to split and go out West, but it didn't work.  I sincerely hope they'll be OK out there, as it looks very unpleasant.
Hey Woppy, can you explain why they even considered to go that far West? To sail around the high, into headwinds? Because some routing suggested it? Remember, the Class 40's still have to go down to the Cape Verdes first.

And then that written weather forecast, didn't even know they were still doing those. ;)

Windy has the best graphics of any, is free for the basic models, no registration neceassary, and is fundamentaly as reliable as any of the paid models, at least for offshore.

Screenshot_20211112-122201.png

At current time of posting.

Low is moving NE, btw.

 

P_Wop

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Hey Woppy, can you explain why they even considered to go that far West? To sail around the high, into headwinds? Because some routing suggested it? Remember, the Class 40's still have to go down to the Cape Verdes first.

And then that written weather forecast, didn't even know they were still doing those. ;)

Windy has the best graphics of any, is free for the basic models, no registration neceassary, and is fundamentaly as reliable as any of the paid models, at least for offshore.

View attachment 473196

At current time of posting.

Low is moving NE, btw.
I believe they fairly soon realised they didn't have the legs on the leading boats, so decided to take a flyer.  It looked good for a bit, while everyone else was wandering around at 2 knots.  At one point they were 5th. 

But I must admit that I haven't taken a deep dive into the GRIBs etc., but assume they had some pretty good data aboard.

It seems to me that several things happened.  The Atlantic low developed into a bigger, quicker, deeper system than predicted.  And the North Portugese Trades materialised just in time to give the inshore 40s a pretty free run to Finisterre and down the coast.

Polka Dot managed to get back across the ridge to re-join the party, but well back.

A long way to go.

YMMV

 
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Laurent

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Houston


Thomas Coville explained that the shock was really violent. Thomas Rouxel flew inside the boat and is bruised.

They took 12 to 13 hours to lift the foil and fix what they could, but it is not finished. Therefore the stop in Madeira and the team helping them to fix it, but also make sure that the foil is not going to damage the hull further and do everything to restart and still finish the race. Since the weather forecast is complicated, there might be a slight chance for them to come back into the game, and they want to try it.

 

wildbirdtoo

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I wonder if Charlie has a problem.. slowed down quite a bit over the last few hours.  Linked out has almost caught up;  the 30m deficit has gone (and not a trick of position/ calcs)

 

staysail

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Happy to see Initiatives hanging in there with the latest rocket ships. Guess one only has to compare past tracks to see how they have managed it.

 

Fiji Bitter

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I wonder if Charlie has a problem.. slowed down quite a bit over the last few hours.  Linked out has almost caught up;  the 30m deficit has gone (and not a trick of position/ calcs)
Well spotted, that went "south" quickly. :)

Must have hit the light spot that only the NEMS model seems to show. Apivia now trying to cover Linkedout, and all the leading boats might slow down together for a while.

Nems model is actually 11 hours old, and will update in 1 hour. (On Windy).

 
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yl75

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France

Herman

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The big picture for Nov 12th.

Pic 1 has NOAA Atlantic synopsis overlay with GFS wind and pressure (latest run 00 UTC) for 09 UTC boat positions.

The 4 red dots (I brushed them up in the screenhot) represent the 4 class leaders, positions @ 0900 CET.

Eyecatcher is the hurricane east of Newfoundland moving NNE. Winds > 40 kts.

The first ultime Rothschild is near a LP mark drawn by the NOAA forecaster Bell, I don't see that though in the forecasted GFS GRIBs for wind, pressure and cloud cover. Or IR sat clouds.

All boats can now enjoy the ride south using the Azores HP and /or trades.

Pic 2 has the zoom of pic 1.

Pic 3 zoom added with inverted IR satellite clouds in order to line op forecasts NOAA and GFS with actual positions of systems.

Pic 4 shows that ultime Rothschild is 900+ nm north of the ITCZ or as the French like to call it, the "pot au noir". With current speed (30 kts) extrapolated that is +/- 30 hrs away for them.

Big picture12-11-21 NOAA v3.png

Big picture12-11-21 NOAA v3 zoom.png

1781307961_Bigpicture12-11-21NOAAv3satclouds.png

ITCZ.png

 
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yl75

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The ITCZ/pot au noir looks huge on Windy in the coming days, it start to fill up around Nov 15 or 16. There might be a regrouping for the Ultims (although they are already pretty much grouped, except for Sodebo).

Edit : again BPXI position is late for the 10:00 report (9:45), can't they fix their data transmission stuff ?

 
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kass

Member
4 hours ago, Laurent said:


Thanks!

I was not aware that Will Oxley is doing their routing. Interesting.

So pleased they managed to sort things so they could rejoin the race. Will be fascinating to see if they can catch up. 

 

Herman

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Must have hit the light spot that only the NEMS model seems to show. Apivia now trying to cover Linkedout, and all the leading boats might slow down together for a while.

Nems model is actually 11 hours old, and will update in 1 hour. (On Windy).
As a desert the NEMS model as overlay with 0900 CET boat positions for LinkedOut and Apivia. That patch of lighter winds is projected 40 NM to the east of Apivia. Unless that is forecasted inaccurate, which could be the case, something else could be at hand. Boats were 20 nm apart @ 0900 CET, and @ 1000 CET only 17 nm. That would be a very local patch of light wind then, as Apivia is still 2 kts slower than LinkedOut atm.

Schermafdruk 2021-11-12 10.48.26.png

 

Fiji Bitter

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As a desert the NEMS model as overlay with 0900 CET boat positions for LinkedOut and Apivia. That patch of lighter winds is projected 40 NM to the east of Apivia. Unless that is forecasted inaccurate, which could be the case, something else could be at hand. Boats were 20 nm apart @ 0900 CET, and @ 1000 CET only 17 nm. That would be a very local patch of light wind then, as Apivia is still 2 kts slower than LinkedOut atm.
The NEMS forecast on Windy was meanwhile more than 12 hours old, and did in fact not yet update as scheduled. Your gribs could be different of course. The other models did not really show anything, so yes, it could be very local, and probably not very accurately positioned as forecast anyway.

Linkedout has now slowed down a fair bit, but Apivia is still a lot slower. Unless someone can find the actual windspeeds on the boats, we will all be guessing, more or less.

One thing is sure though, that Apivia is fast but not very lucky, so far!

 
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Herman

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Unless someone can find the actual windspeeds on the boats, we will all be guessing, more or less.
I like a challenge.

In Pic 1 the ASCAT actual wind speeds and direction @ 10:14 UTC as overlay.

No strange lighter patches east of Apivia, nada.

Pic 2 has the zoom.

Apivia is in 3rd place, doing 2 kts slower than LinkedOut and Charal @ 12:00 CET.

Something is wrong with the race monster, my best guess. Charal and Apivia are within visual range, maybe some pictures on the socials will show something.

ASCAT Nov 12 1014 UTC.png

ASCAT Nov 12 1014 UTC Zoom.png

 




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