Trump or Desantis......Who will be the next US President?

[Olsonist]

let them poke holes in this guy's resume. i see some bi-partisan support for this guy. losts of closeted far righters and sensible people in the middle somwhere. easy coalition to manage.

Max Cleland lost two legs and an arm and they ‘poked’ holes in his resume.

 

[3to1]

She'll be 35 and a month or so in Nov 2024. I guess that works.

age is a number, I appreciate her record.

 

[Raz'r]

age is a number, I appreciate her record.

Connie says she must be 35.

I also appreciate her record.

 

[Steam Flyer]

Hate to say it, but he'll get crucified in the primaries.

If not, Joe, Stacey Abrams, or Elizabeth Warren would be a better bet.

Amy Klobuchar will rip him up one side and down the other in a debate. Gavie doesn't respond well to being challenged - lets just say Porky Pig would be far more eleoquent.

Sorry, the boy has never had to work for it. He should go after Fienstien's seat.

??
Do you vote in Democratic primaries?

 

[efrank]

Do you really think so?

I agree that we all underestimated Trump in 2016. That's because most of us saw through the bluster to see what a small, weak guy he actually is. But he connected with a certain segment of the population who believed the bluster.

After he was elected Trump's epic incompetence was been revealed. Let's review:

• Dems crushed the 2018 mid terms,
• Dems won the senate, house and oval in the 2020 general
• Dems did much better in the 2022 mid terms than any oval-holder in living memory, and this during a time of historic inflation

Following Trump's surprise 2016 victory, team R has suffered loss after loss. Trump is a loser and the R's won't win another election until they shed themselves of at least Trump, if not Trumpism in general.

Yes, I think it is possible. I was just looking at a Gallup Poll that shows that republicans and republican leaning independents are about equal in numbers with democrats and democrat leaning independents. In the last 20 years or so that has typically leaned in the democrats favor. So despite the fact that Trumpism is still prevalent in the party, republicans and independents are not fleeing.

So, get the base ginned up on Trump's persecution, patriotism, God, and Jewish space lasers in addition to record inflation and a right trending population, I think you have a good recipe for four more years of lies, grifting, and shameful antics from TFG.

Like Clean said it is about getting out the vote. Hopefully, those voting against Trump will be as motivated as those voting for him.

 

[Nice!]

... a right trending population...

The demographics suggest this isn't true. Warning: generalisms ahead.

Boomers vote right. The ones that remain after they chose not to wear masks and get vaxxed will age out in the coming few years.

Young people vote left. Millenials and Gen Z are voting in record numbers, compared to previous generations when they were that age. They're politically engaged more than any generation in history.

I would suggest that Trump, the current state of the R party, the undoing of RvW, stoking outrage culture, Fox News... all of it.... is the last frantic gasp of the "white male boomer" who, collectively, could either consciously or subconsciously see that their time in power was coming to an end.

 

[Raz'r]

??
Do you vote in Democratic primaries?

He can in California - as the Dems allow anyone to vote in their primary.

 

[Ventucky Red]

??
Do you vote in Democratic primaries?

No - I get an NPP ballot, and CA is a closed primary - no presidential candidates on the ballot. I could request a Team D ballot before the election, but why waste my time? By the time they get the CA, all that is left to do is let the fat lady sing.

Besides, there hasn't been anyone running that has excited me for quite some time.

 

[Ventucky Red]

He can in California - as the Dems allow anyone to vote in their primary.

With an NPP you need to ask for the ballot prior to the election. Unless they do a modified closed primary.

 

[Steam Flyer]

No - I get an NPP ballot, and CA is a closed primary - no presidential candidates on the ballot. I could request a Team D ballot before the election, but why waste my time? By the time they get the CA, all that is left to do is let the fat lady sing.

Besides, there hasn't been anyone running that has excited me for quite some time.

OK, thanks for the explanation.

After Bloomberg, I have a rather dim view of deep-pockets rock-star candidates. Haven't seen that much from Newsome but what I have seen does not give me much reason to prefer him over Biden, nor to dump on him. Frnakly, the fact that Republicans hate-hate-HATE him doesn't mean much. You all hate-hate-HATE -every- Democrat, these days.

Our governor, Roy Cooper, would make a pretty good President but he's not an exciting candidate. Rather soft spoken and moderate. But then, a sensible citizen votes for policies, and out of civic duty, not because they are excited. That's a big part of the problem with the USA currently, politics as entertainment.

 

[efrank]

The demographics suggest this isn't true. Warning: generalisms ahead.

Boomers vote right. The ones that remain after they chose not to wear masks and get vaxxed will age out in the coming few years.

Young people vote left. Millenials and Gen Z are voting in record numbers, compared to previous generations when they were that age. They're politically engaged more than any generation in history.

I would suggest that Trump, the current state of the R party, the undoing of RvW, stoking outrage culture, Fox News... all of it.... is the last frantic gasp of the "white male boomer" who, collectively, could either consciously or subconsciously see that their time in power was coming to an end.

I agree with your last paragraph. Demographics will make this inevitable, but not by the next election.

Here is some fairly recent data:

Party Affiliation

In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent? (Asked of independents: As of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?)

news.gallup.com

And here is some slightly dated data from Pew Research that shows how strong the democrat's position has been in the past. Despite that, we had Trump.

1. Trends in party affiliation among demographic groups

The balance of partisan affiliation – and the combined measure of partisan identification and leaning – has not changed substantially over the past two

www.pewresearch.org

 

[Ventucky Red]

You all hate-hate-HATE -every- Democrat, these days.

You could have left this sentence out... but you can't help yourself I get it.

Don't hate Newsom... I just don't think he has the chops for a presidential campaign. Every election he has been in has been handed to him.

If the boy were smart, he would settle and be happy with Senator Newsom.

 

[Steam Flyer]

You all hate-hate-HATE -every- Democrat, these days.

You could have left this sentence out... but you can't help yourself I get it.
...

It's just a simple and obvious truth. Sorry if it's the bad smell you wish would go away.

You could have left this sentence out... but you can't help yourself I get it.

Don't hate Newsom... I just don't think he has the chops for a presidential campaign. Every election he has been in has been handed to him.

If the boy were smart, he would settle and be happy with Senator Newsom.

Probably right, but I also think governors make better presidents than ones who rise from legislative careers. Being an executive is a different game.

 

[bridhb]

Yes, I think it is possible. I was just looking at a Gallup Poll that shows that republicans and republican leaning independents are about equal in numbers with democrats and democrat leaning independents. In the last 20 years or so that has typically leaned in the democrats favor. So despite the fact that Trumpism is still prevalent in the party, republicans and independents are not fleeing.

So, get the base ginned up on Trump's persecution, patriotism, God, and Jewish space lasers in addition to record inflation and a right trending population, I think you have a good recipe for four more years of lies, grifting, and shameful antics from TFG.

Like Clean said it is about getting out the vote. Hopefully, those voting against Trump will be as motivated as those voting for him.

Oh, I am motivated a heck of a lot!

 

[Marty Gingras]

 

[P_Wop]

This reminds me of a quote in the wonderful British comedy series of 30+ years ago, 'Yes Minister.'

In a final episode, Sir Arnold, Party Chairman, when asked by Sir Humphrey which of the two eminent candidates should be the next Prime Minister, replied, "Hmmm... It's difficult. It's like asking which lunatic should be running the asylum."

 

[MR.CLEAN]

Yes, I think it is possible. I was just looking at a Gallup Poll that shows that republicans and republican leaning independents are about equal in numbers with democrats and democrat leaning independents. In the last 20 years or so that has typically leaned in the democrats favor. So despite the fact that Trumpism is still prevalent in the party, republicans and independents are not fleeing.

I cannot believe anyone is still pretending polls provide a basis for conclusions and have not just become yet another digital information scam.

Red wave, anyone?

 

[MR.CLEAN]

View attachment 581437 View attachment 581438

Fuck Desantis - Trump taking down the entire state!

 

[BeSafe]

View attachment 581438

That's actually a pretty good rant

Trump is the physical manifestation of an emotional outburst and the politician's 'natural response' is let the rant blow itself out and then explain counterpoints. Which is totally wrong for what a lot of people feel. They're tired of being 'explained' too and want change.. that's Trump's ultimate base - the "id" of the frustrated voter.

If DeSantis wants the nomination, he needs to seize that rage and channel it - and counter-punch at LEAST as hard.

 

[efrank]

I cannot believe anyone is still pretending polls provide a basis for conclusions and have not just become yet another digital information scam.

Red wave, anyone?

Conclusions? We are all just speculating here.

I didn't realize Pew and Gallup were considered digital information scams. You said independents are trending away from Trump. What was that based on?