TS Debby - where the fuck is she going?

[MauganTornado]

So Mark -

Any idea where this storm is going to go and how strong it will be when it gets there? All the major models have it going in a different direction with varying strengths.

- The ECMWF (European) model, in its latest run, has "blinked" first, backing off from its Texas outcome, now showing a track into Louisiana. The GFS (American) is sticking to its forecast of the scenario of the storm going across the Florida peninsula. The GEM (Canadian) model, which had been showing a track into Louisiana, now has Debby going into the Florida Panhandle. Those are "global models." The latest runs of the two main hurricane models are split, with one (GFDL) forecasting a Florida Panhandle landfall and the other (HWRF) predicting it to be in Texas, but the latter currently being the only model to do that.

All I know is that we're getting a soaking here in CFL. Its giving me cabin fever

 

[~HHN92~]

So Mark -

Any idea where this storm is going to go and how strong it will be when it gets there? All the major models have it going in a different direction with varying strengths.

- The ECMWF (European) model, in its latest run, has "blinked" first, backing off from its Texas outcome, now showing a track into Louisiana. The GFS (American) is sticking to its forecast of the scenario of the storm going across the Florida peninsula. The GEM (Canadian) model, which had been showing a track into Louisiana, now has Debby going into the Florida Panhandle. Those are "global models." The latest runs of the two main hurricane models are split, with one (GFDL) forecasting a Florida Panhandle landfall and the other (HWRF) predicting it to be in Texas, but the latter currently being the only model to do that.

All I know is that we're getting a soaking here in CFL. Its giving me cabin fever

+1 Hope the Sunfish in the back yard don't float away. Good for the lakes though since they have been so low from the drought.

 

[MauganTornado]

+1 Hope the Sunfish in the back yard don't float away. Good for the lakes though since they have been so low from the drought.

Ahh shit

I bet my buddy's PWC has (rightfully so) floated away from its makeshift drought-based-sandbar on the lake

 

[~HHN92~]

+1 Hope the Sunfish in the back yard don't float away. Good for the lakes though since they have been so low from the drought.

Ahh shit

I bet my buddy's PWC has (rightfully so) floated away from its makeshift drought-based-sandbar on the lake

But, we're not even on a lake!

Being just a block or so away we actually drain pretty well. The street sweepers come around regularly and keep the gutters clear.

 

[One eye Jack]

Debby does Dallas..

 

[buzzardsbay105]

My favorite:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

 

[dolphinmaster]

She may only develop into a Cat 1 but with her present rotation and position, she is building storm surge ahead of her storm surge for Chandeleur Sound etc.

 

[Pete Pollard]

I love it when they're north of me.

 

[El Mariachi]

I'm a bit south & west of Perry and it's been miserable all fuking day. Twenty knots and rain from the n/east, twenty from the n/west, twenty from due east. It's all screwed up----and it's not even good drinking weather. Of course I picked today to flea bomb the house so the dog and I are staring at each other under the carport, and we're both bored out of fricken minds.

Never....trust a broad named Debbie....

 

[hobot]

Must beat Cali beach girls, MS13, and alley way graffitti though,...right?

 

[Hank]

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012

1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST THIS MORNING.

DEBBY HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...040 AT 3

KNOTS...WHILE THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDING IN THE EASTERN

SEMICIRCLE. THIS HAS PROMPTED ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS

AND WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA COAST.

DEBBY CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY

NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ALTHOUGH SOME DECREASE IN THE SHEAR IS

POSSIBLE AFTER THAT...PARTICULARLY IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS

FORECAST...BUT REMAINS ABOVE MOST OF THE EXPLICIT INTENSITY

GUIDANCE.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS EVEN MORE COMPLEX.

 

[El Mariachi]

Must beat Cali beach girls, MS13, and alley way graffitti though,...right?

If your pilot ain't doing nothing today, can you send her over to 30 N/83.5 W with a Zodiac, two Baja lobsters and some flowers?

Thanx in advance.....

 

[Gouvernail]

Debby is ging to hang oput and drench teh Florida panhandle and Alabama and Mississippi for a while.

meanwhile, there is another storm forming just north of Cancun which will either blend into Debby and make it huge or separate to teh west. If it separates, it will fill the gulf by mid week and then blast into Texas....It will enter just north of Corpus and head inland to fill lake Travis.

 

[dolphinmaster]

Must beat Cali beach girls, MS13, and alley way graffitti though,...right?

If your pilot ain't doing nothing today, can you send her over to 30 N/83.5 W with a Zodiac, two Baja lobsters and some flowers?

Thanx in advance.....

RB ,

looks like you're having sky soup for bkfst, lunch, and dinner through next Saturday. Good luck with the gators and cottonmouths when the water gets up

 

[Bull Gator]

Debby is ging to hang oput and drench teh Florida panhandle and Alabama and Mississippi for a while.

meanwhile, there is another storm forming just north of Cancun which will either blend into Debby and make it huge or separate to teh west. If it separates, it will fill the gulf by mid week and then blast into Texas....It will enter just north of Corpus and head inland to fill lake Travis.

I think it will head towards perry, fl.

 

[El Mariachi]

Must beat Cali beach girls, MS13, and alley way graffitti though,...right?

If your pilot ain't doing nothing today, can you send her over to 30 N/83.5 W with a Zodiac, two Baja lobsters and some flowers?

Thanx in advance.....

RB ,

looks like you're having sky soup for bkfst, lunch, and dinner through next Saturday. Good luck with the gators and cottonmouths when the water gets up

Thanx for that, D, thanx a lot. I probably should have just moved up to f'ng Seattle, where it only rains every other hour. Regardless, I'll be on suicide watch if you need me.

Btw, how are things up in your woods of the neck?.,..,

 

[Gouvernail]

Debby is ging to hang oput and drench teh Florida panhandle and Alabama and Mississippi for a while.

meanwhile, there is another storm forming just north of Cancun which will either blend into Debby and make it huge or separate to teh west. If it separates, it will fill the gulf by mid week and then blast into Texas....It will enter just north of Corpus and head inland to fill lake Travis.

I think it will head towards perry, fl.

Make up your mind.. Perry or florida??

 

[Gouvernail]

or didja mean Katy??

 

[Gouvernail]

damn. The cancun storm seems to be falling apart...

infra red Gulf satgellllllite