Ukraine and Only Ukraine. If it isn't about Ukraine then fuck off

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Mark_K

Super Anarchist
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Between the mountains and the sea
Olsonist said:
Perun gives a pretty good review.

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The one thing I might quibble with is his assessment of Russian political objectives. He says it was to demonstrate Russian army invincibility but it may be Putin launched this with a notion that the pecking away of nations within Russia's traditional sphere of influence needed to be disincentivized. That is an aim that may not be "completely smashed", contrary to the author's assertion that ALL Russian political objectives have been.

If the aims are completely smashed the Russians will soon quit. If not they will continue. Seeking, whether or not they win or lose, to make it a costly affair. That goal may be viewed as achievable if they can make it to and through winter. Ukraine is now nearly totally mobilzed, some say they have a million-man army now. This means there's a million government employees to feed and house instead of working jobs and paying taxes. The West will fund this but will also feel some pain from that and that pain may cause politicians to think twice about dispatching Kagans and the like to foment revolutions in the future, and that won't be the case if they up and quit quick and in abject humiliation, so they will seek "peace with honor", a political goal, unless forced otherwise.
 
L

LeoV

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Mark_K said:
Russia's traditional sphere of influence
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Soon we will talk about Ukraine's sphere of influence. As traditions get upset. Many of Russian traditional allies are invading each other. Looks like Rus sphere of influence is diminishing.

The quickest way for the West to solve their problems related to Ukraine is to make sure Russia is kicked back as soon as possible.
But without his allies sending to much weapons. So far the big one China is out of the supply chain of Russia. Would not be surprised that that is main reason of slow weapon deliveries.
 
Waynemarlow

Waynemarlow

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LeoV said:
Russians hope that less and less weapons will be send to Ukraine is in fain.
New from Germany.
Two new MLRS Mars II, 4 additional Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzer. Also 50 Dingo armored personnel carriers are arriving.
And 12 more Gepards anti air. Training on Iris missile systems going on.
Ukraine used a couple of PHZ 2000 already so much they need a check up.

Other countries keep sending stuff too.
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As the number of German soldiers asking for exemption to front line fighting rises ( over 700 this year alone. ) I guess the number of redundant military hardware pieces can only rise as well.

Nah Germany in particular and in some ways the Netherlands as well, have an awful lot of explaining to the world how their dependence on cheap Russian oil and gas is now causing the world to pay exorbitant sums to heat and light our houses and yet the last to support the Ukrainians in any meaningful way.
 
Only Fools Rush In

Only Fools Rush In

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Waynemarlow said:
As the number of German soldiers asking for exemption to front line fighting rises ( over 700 this year alone. ) I guess the number of redundant military hardware pieces can only rise as well.

Nah Germany in particular and in some ways the Netherlands as well, have an awful lot of explaining to the world how their dependence on cheap Russian oil and gas is now causing the world to pay exorbitant sums to heat and light our houses and yet the last to support the Ukrainians in any meaningful way.
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Oké 😂
 
badlatitude

badlatitude

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Turkey's Erdogan: Russia's Putin willing to end war​


_126784034_erdogan.jpg

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said he believes Russia's leader is seeking an end to the war he began in Ukraine, and that a "significant step" will be made. He said his impression from recent talks with Vladimir Putin was that he wanted to "end this as soon as possible".

Ukraine has recaptured swathes of its territory this month. The Turkish leader indicated things were "quite problematic" for Russia. Mr Erdogan spoke of having "very extensive discussions" with Mr Putin at a summit in Uzbekistan last week.

In an interview with US broadcaster PBS, the Turkish leader said he gained the impression that the Russian president wanted a speedy end to the war. "He is actually showing me that he's willing to end this as soon as possible," Mr Erdogan said. "That was my impression, because the way things are going right now are quite problematic." He also said 200 "hostages" would soon be exchanged between the two sides. He gave no further detail of who would be included in such a prisoner swap.

Read more: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62965993
 
d'ranger

d'ranger

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" I Want To Live" is a phone number on how to safely surrender for Russian soldiers. Russia counters with 'all soldiers captured or surrendering to Ukraine are being neutered. Since it is Putin who is being neutered daily is black humor.
 
hobie1616

hobie1616

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badlatitude said:

Turkey's Erdogan: Russia's Putin willing to end war​


_126784034_erdogan.jpg

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said he believes Russia's leader is seeking an end to the war he began in Ukraine, and that a "significant step" will be made. He said his impression from recent talks with Vladimir Putin was that he wanted to "end this as soon as possible".

Ukraine has recaptured swathes of its territory this month. The Turkish leader indicated things were "quite problematic" for Russia. Mr Erdogan spoke of having "very extensive discussions" with Mr Putin at a summit in Uzbekistan last week.

In an interview with US broadcaster PBS, the Turkish leader said he gained the impression that the Russian president wanted a speedy end to the war. "He is actually showing me that he's willing to end this as soon as possible," Mr Erdogan said. "That was my impression, because the way things are going right now are quite problematic." He also said 200 "hostages" would soon be exchanged between the two sides. He gave no further detail of who would be included in such a prisoner swap.

Read more: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62965993
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Well yeah. Give the Ukrainians a few more weeks and they'll be in Red Square.
 
Olsonist

Olsonist

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badlatitude said:

Turkey's Erdogan: Russia's Putin willing to end war​

Click to expand...

Yeah, I'll believe that when I see it. Losing isn't lost. I think Putin would rather lose for quite awhile longer. If he does concede, he has to give up all of Crimea and Donbas. it'll be a tough sell but Ukraine should then get a fast track into NATO. However, I think this endgame feeds into Putin's preference for losing over lost.

But I do think the offensive rolls on. It doesn't really come down to NATO combined arms training. It comes down to national will and to morale. When you saw grandmothers throwing Molotov cocktails at the Russian tanks, it's not clear how effective that was but it was a demonstration of national will. And what you're seeing now from the Russians is a lack of morale.
 
badlatitude

badlatitude

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Olsonist said:
Yeah, I'll believe that when I see it. Losing isn't lost. I think Putin would rather lose for quite awhile longer. If he does concede, he has to give up all of Crimea and Donbas. it'll be a tough sell but Ukraine should then get a fast track into NATO. However, I think this endgame feeds into Putin's preference for losing over lost.

But I do think the offensive rolls on. It doesn't really come down to NATO combined arms training. It comes down to national will and to morale. When you saw grandmothers throwing Molotov cocktails at the Russian tanks, it's not clear how effective that was but it was a demonstration of national will. And what you're seeing now from the Russians is a lack of morale.
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Here's a very interesting take.

In challenge to West, Russia unfurls plan to annex swathes of Ukraine

By Guy Faulconbridge and Felix Light


LONDON, Sept 20 (Reuters) - Russia on Tuesday gave support to plans by separatists which it backs in Ukraine to hold referendums paving the way for the annexation of swathes of additional territory, a direct challenge to the West that could sharply escalate the conflict. After nearly seven months of war, including a critical battlefield defeat in northeastern Ukraine, Putin is pondering his next steps in a conflict that has triggered the biggest confrontation with the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

In what appeared to be choreographed requests, Russian-backed officials across 15% of Ukrainian territory - an area about the size of Hungary or Portugal - lined up to request referendums on joining Russia. The self-styled Donetsk (DPR) and the Luhansk People's Republics (LPR), which Putin recognised as independent just before the invasion, and the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions have asked for votes over less than 24 hours.

Luhansk and Donetsk officials said the referendums would take place in just days, on Sept. 23-27. Asked about the referendums, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said: "From the very start of the operation... we said that the peoples of the respective territories should decide their fate, and the whole current situation confirms that they want to be masters of their fate."

If Moscow formally annexed a vast additional chunk of Ukraine, Putin would essentially be daring the United States and its European allies to risk a direct military confrontation with Russia, the world's biggest nuclear power. "All this talk about immediate referendums is an absolutely unequivocal ultimatum from Russia to Ukraine and the West," said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the political analysis firm R.Politik.

(snip)

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...must-hold-referendums-join-russia-2022-09-20/
 
M

Mark_K

Super Anarchist
1,600
706
Between the mountains and the sea
badlatitude said:
Here's a very interesting take.

In challenge to West, Russia unfurls plan to annex swathes of Ukraine

By Guy Faulconbridge and Felix Light


LONDON, Sept 20 (Reuters) - Russia on Tuesday gave support to plans by separatists which it backs in Ukraine to hold referendums paving the way for the annexation of swathes of additional territory, a direct challenge to the West that could sharply escalate the conflict. After nearly seven months of war, including a critical battlefield defeat in northeastern Ukraine, Putin is pondering his next steps in a conflict that has triggered the biggest confrontation with the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

In what appeared to be choreographed requests, Russian-backed officials across 15% of Ukrainian territory - an area about the size of Hungary or Portugal - lined up to request referendums on joining Russia. The self-styled Donetsk (DPR) and the Luhansk People's Republics (LPR), which Putin recognised as independent just before the invasion, and the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions have asked for votes over less than 24 hours.

Luhansk and Donetsk officials said the referendums would take place in just days, on Sept. 23-27. Asked about the referendums, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said: "From the very start of the operation... we said that the peoples of the respective territories should decide their fate, and the whole current situation confirms that they want to be masters of their fate."

If Moscow formally annexed a vast additional chunk of Ukraine, Putin would essentially be daring the United States and its European allies to risk a direct military confrontation with Russia, the world's biggest nuclear power. "All this talk about immediate referendums is an absolutely unequivocal ultimatum from Russia to Ukraine and the West," said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the political analysis firm R.Politik.

(snip)

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...must-hold-referendums-join-russia-2022-09-20/
Click to expand...
One of the problems Putin has is he can't use conscripts in combat areas outside of Russia due to Russian laws on the matter. Making Luhansk and Donetsk part of Russia would allow him to use them.

Considering the widely reported situation of poor recruitment and a heck of a lot of soldiers with contracts close to expiring loudly saying they aren't going to re-up, it's a fair guess it's the issue prompting this move.
 
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