Ukraine and Only Ukraine. If it isn't about Ukraine then fuck off

[00seven]

That loois like a truck full of ammo boxes , not a boat full of trucks

They're trucks with big ammo boxes on the back.

 

[Mid]

CNN: U.S. Embassy Warns Americans to leave Russia now​

"Security alert for Americans in Russia

Russia may refuse to acknowledge dual nations' U.S. citzenship, deny their access to U.S. consular assistance, prevent their departure from Russia, and conscript dual nationals for military service...
and those residing or travelling in Russia should depart Russia immediately while limited commercial travel options remain"

They can be arrested on the street and taken into custody

Security Alert for U.S. Citizens in Russia​

Home | News & Events | Security Alert for U.S. Citizens in Russia

Security Alert for U.S. Citizens in Russia
U.S. Embassy Moscow, Russia (September 27, 2022)
​

Event: On September 21, the Russian government began a mobilization of its citizens to the armed forces in support of its invasion of Ukraine. Russia may refuse to acknowledge dual nationals’ U.S. citizenship, deny their access to U.S. consular assistance, prevent their departure from Russia, and conscript dual nationals for military service.

Commercial flight options are extremely limited at present and are often unavailable on short notice. Overland routes by car and bus are still open. If you wish to depart Russia, you should make independent arrangements as soon as possible. The U.S. Embassy has severe limitations on its ability to assist U.S. citizens, and conditions, including transportation options, may suddenly become even more limited.

U.S. citizens should not travel to Russia and those residing or travelling in Russia should depart Russia immediately while limited commercial travel options remain. The Department of State provides information on commercial travel on the Information for U.S. Citizens in Russia – Travel Options Out of Russia page on travel.state.gov. This site also provides information on requirements for entering neighboring countries, procedures for travel on expired U.S. passports in some circumstances, and visa requirements for families with American and Russian citizen family members.
We remind U.S. citizens that the right to peaceful assembly and freedom of expression are not guaranteed in Russia. Avoid all political or social protests and do not photograph security personnel at these events. Russian authorities have arrested U.S. citizens who have participated in demonstrations.

Actions To Take:
• Read the Department’s Travel Advisory for Russia.
• Carry proper identification, including a U.S. passport with a current Russian visa.
• Have a contingency plan that does not rely on U.S. government assistance.

Assistance:
• U.S. Embassy Moscow, Russia
Telephone: +(7) (495) 728-5577; After hours: +(7) (495) 728-5000
Email: [email protected]
Website:  U.S. Embassy Moscow
• U.S. Department of State – Consular Affairs
• Telephone:  +1 202-501-4444 (overseas) or +1 888-407-4747 (from the U.S.)
• Russia Country Information
• Enroll in Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) to receive security updates
• Follow us on Facebook and Twitter

Security Alert for U.S. Citizens in Russia

Security Alert for U.S. Citizens in Russia U.S. Embassy Moscow, Russia (September 27, 2022) Event: On September 21, the Russian government began a

ru.usembassy.gov

 

[Mid]

 

[Bugsy]

Bit of a tangent but I have some familiarity with this issue..... that is, most modern militaries are woefully unprepared to fight a nuclear war. Sure, you can push the buttons and launch nuclear weapons, but at some point boots on the ground have to be there.

While there is some training provided in working in a radioactive contaminated environment to all military personnel, I will suggest that it is woefully inadequate and outdated. The resources, skills and equipment just are not there. Further, the psychological hazard will be very high.

My perspective as a former military officer now working in the nuclear industry.

 

[hobie1616]

 

[LeoV]

@Bugsy , what will happen if they dropped a small one on Snake Island ? Just to set an example. No boots on the ground required, and Odessa probably evacuated.
And is Ukraine capable of creating a dirty bomb ? I know they are woefully underperforming compared with a nuke. But still.

 

[hobie1616]

 

[Steam Flyer]

There only reasons Russia would drop a nuclear weapon on Ukraine: they're losing, they think it will terrorize "the West" into surrendering, and they can.

There are two meanings for "strategic" and "tactical" in the context of nuclear weapons: one is the type & location of targets, major cities with major war-supporting industries would be a strategic target because attacking/destroying them has a long-term effect on the country's ability to wage war, in general. "Tactical" refers to a site local to the battle front, with a supply and/or transport hub and/or significant C3 unit; attacking/destroying it means that the attacker can gain an immediate advantage on the battelfield.

Neither of these apply to Russia's potential use of nuclear weapons on Ukraine, unless Russia were to "strategically" nuke London or New York.

The other context refers to the size of the blast. "Tactical" nuclear weapons are smaller with a smaller zone of destruction and less radioactive release.

If Russia's purpose is to terrorize Ukraine into surrender, and to scare "the West" into stopping their (our) support, then why would they use a small weapon?

I hope this line of logic leads to the conclusion that there IS NO REASON for Russia use a nuke, that the use of a nuke would lead to a worse outcome for Russia in all possible cases.

But they're crazy.
Crazy people don't use the same logic.

 

[Bugsy]

what will happen if they dropped a small one on Snake Island ? Just to set an example. No boots on the ground required, and Odessa probably evacuated.
And is Ukraine capable of creating a dirty bomb ? I know they are woefully underperforming compared with a nuke. But still.

1. I am speculating, but I suspect Snake Island would become uninhabitable for the foreseeable future. Contaminated runoff will enter the sea and force the shutdown of all fishing / seafood activities within a large range. Everyone will be afraid to eat seafood from that area or seafood that may have come from that area. The airborne contamination will follow the prevailing winds and create contamination hazards wherever the winds blow. Those levels are unlikely to be fatal / cause extreme health problems but will require substantial monitoring and remediation. Farmlands, dairies, orchards, etc in affected area will be shut down. Water supplies may be affected. Contamination will possibly circulate the globe at extremely low levels. From a technical perspective, detection of very, very small quantities (a few atoms) of radioactivity is not particularly difficult. For essentially all cases however such amounts of radioactivity are harmless. Fear and paranoia will prevail.

2. Anyone can make a dirty bomb. It is easy. Get a large-ish source of radioactivity (commonly used at construction sites for compaction testing or weld x-rays and not too difficult to steal) and strap to an explosive. The radiation consequences are small but the fear and response will be huge. Areas around the explosion site will be evacuated until it is proven the radiation hazard is removed. Fear will be high. As an aside, if someone just *says* they have set off a dirty bomb, the fear will be high. Proving the absence of contamination will always be a problem as there is radioactivity everywhere in the environment at low levels.

Study the response to Chernobyl and Fukushima for some idea of the response (FYI I have been to Chernobyl as part of a radiation measuring exercise).

I worked at a large, outdoor site that was cleaning up historic radioactive waste. The site measured about 1/4 mile x 1 mile and had low level radioactive contamination throughout. Up to 70 people worked in that area using excavators, bulldozers, dump trucks, etc. I invited the local military emergency response organization (nominally capable of operating in a radiation-contaminated environment) to tour our facility and share some lessons learned. No one responded to my invitation.

 

[LeoV]

Thanks. A dirty bomb is certainly something that would worry Russia if they are smart. They must now recognize Ukraine defends ferocious.

I was close to Chernobyl when it went... close by as at East Hungary border. Panic was quick replaced by practical stuff, to get the hell out of there. As a tourist in a strange land information was hard to get. Had thyroid cancer decades later at a young age.... connection or not. Hard to say. They say the plume went North, not in my direction.
BTW Russia kept it secret for days, gossip all around, maybe made the panic less. But countermeasures were delayed too, I expect the same in Russia if a dirty bomb went of in Moscow.

And as we know Russia is brilliant, so they did send soldiers to the front who were stationed as guards by the taskforce responsible for nuclear missiles. Bet that prisoner gets a lengthy interrogation. I wonder if Russians with that knowledge are leaking intel to the US or other intelligence services.

 

[billy backstay]

I heard briefly on the news that the US is warning all US and dual US-Russia citizens to leave Russia immediately, is that correct?

Apparently, dual citizens are fair prey for conscription into the Russian Army to go fight in Ukraine. And the other reason is what? Are we getting worried about the nuclear threat, yet?
.

 

[Steam Flyer]

Dear God- I don't ask for much, please PLEASE don't let this happen.

 

[Tax Man]

I heard briefly on the news that the US is warning all US and dual US-Russia citizens to leave Russia immediately, is that correct?

Apparently, dual citizens are fair prey for conscription into the Russian Army to go fight in Ukraine. And the other reason is what? Are we getting worried about the nuclear threat, yet?
.

Risk of being arrested as spies and disappearing for interrogation, then resurfacing as trade bait.

 

[billy backstay]

Risk of being arrested as spies and disappearing for interrogation, then resurfacing as trade bait.

Not surprised, do you have a cite, please?
.

 

[Olsonist]

Risk of being arrested as spies and disappearing for interrogation, then resurfacing as trade bait.

I have a buddy who married a Russian in the 90s. He had a long and prosperous Silicon Valley career but ultimately his (nutty) wife wanted to move back. He was in Saint Petersburg last I heard and had taken Russian citizenship.. Before the invasion he was just your average remote consultant. I'm a little worried about him now.

 

[LeoV]

The commander of the "Wagner group" Oleksii Nahin, nicknamed "Terek", was eliminated in Ukraine. The InformNapalm investigative community reports that the 41-year-old commander of the assault force was eliminated on September 20 near Bakhmut.
Nahin fought in the Donetsk region, Chechnya, Georgia, Syria and Libya.

So that was the reason they left their positions around Bakhmut. Regrouping after losses.

 

[Burning Man]

Putin’s recruits are heading for slaughter

Retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling commanded the 1st Armored Division during the Iraq surge and later commanded U.S. Army Europe.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to activate 300,000 “reservists” — some of whom have previously served, some who have not — to hold the line in Ukraine has led thousands of young Russian men to flee the country. The call-up is an outrage, but not only for the reasons you might imagine. Sending new recruits, poorly trained Russian reservists and untrained civilians into Ukraine is a recipe for slaughter. They will not be prepared for what they will encounter.

Years ago, I was given the command of the organization that oversees all basic training for the Army (what some call “boot camp”) as well as managing the advanced training that follows for every Army trooper. At the time, the United States was recruiting approximately 160,000 soldiers, warrant officers and officers each year.

Most Americans who volunteer to join the Army undergo 10 weeks of basic training, then head to different locations for more training in an assigned specialty. “Basic” is a packed period in which soldiers learn and practice such skills as rifle marksmanship, first aid, map reading, land navigation and grenade throwing. They also learn about working as part of a team, reacting to various kinds of attacks (artillery, chemical, ambush, etc.), drill and ceremony (how to march, salute and other elements of discipline), professional ethos and values, and a variety of other skills. It is intense.

The length of the follow-on training depends on the specialty selected by each soldier, but it’s measured in months, not weeks. An intelligence specialist who works as an interpreter spends almost a year learning the trade. Logistics specialists — truck drivers, fuelers, mechanics — spend less, depending on their jobs. Most recruits will spend three or four years in uniform, and a large percentage reenlist and stay in the professional force.

I later became the commander of the U.S. Army in Europe. In that role, I was able to visit Russia several times and observe how another army trained its conscripts and incorporated them into its force.

Russia’s army is mainly a conscript force. Twice a year, Russian men between the ages of 18 and 27 present themselves to their local commissariat. This annual pool is more than 1 million men, from which 120,000 to 140,000 are deemed qualified and are compelled to serve. Russian conscripts then participate in one to two months of basic training (the exact number of weeks is not defined), followed by three to six months of advanced training in a particular skill set. Graduated soldiers report to their units for a short 12- to 18-month enlistment. Few make the army a career.

It is easy to see why. Russian drill sergeants were unprofessional and continuously harassed and hazed recruits. Marksmanship training was geared toward familiarization with a weapon, but not qualification on it. Soldiers were allocated few rounds for practice on firing ranges. First aid training was rudimentary, map reading and land navigation was nonexistent, soldier initiative was lacking, and discipline was lax.

The barracks were crowded, bunks were close, ventilation was poor. Showers and toilets were gang latrines. Food in the mess halls had small portions, no choices and little nutritional value. I didn’t observe any training on values, soldiers’ ethics, professional behavior, or the teaching of land warfare, all key parts of U.S. basic training. Most training in those areas, I was told by a Russian colonel, is conducted after soldiers leave basic and report to their units. To which I could only conclude: Yeah, right.

Shortly thereafter, I visited a tank regiment. I was ushered to that battalion’s single T-72 tank crew simulator, participated in a drill, and found the device rudimentary and unrealistic. U.S. armor crewmen spend extensive time in tank simulators before firing dozens of live rounds at different types of moving and stationary targets at extended ranges — on multiple types of tank ranges. After experiencing the Russian simulator, I went to their single tank range and was proudly told by the Russian commander that each of his crews was able to fire one live round per year. I tried to keep my jaw from dropping.

Having watched the Russian army during the first seven months of its campaign in Ukraine, I cannot say I’m surprised by any of their setbacks. The Russians performed as their training would have suggested: poorly. The casualty counts reflect this. It is no wonder so many young Russians are fleeing the country.

Which brings us back to how Putin’s 300,000 “reservists” will fare against Ukraine’s NATO-trained army. It is likely those recruits will join units that have recently been traumatized after seven months of combat and already suffer from poor morale. It won’t help that those units have recently been reinforced with prison parolees, ragtag militias from false “peoples’ republics,” and recruited guns from private armies.

The results will be predictable. Putin might continue to send unwilling Russian men to an ill-conceived and illegal invasion for which they are not trained or prepared. But it’s not warfare. It’s just more murder — this time of his own citizens.

It's interesting, but this entire thing was discussed ad nauseum during the Cold war as well. There were the usual alarmists who said the superior number of Russian tanks would roll over NATO as they pushed through the Fulda Gap in Germany and their like 5 to 1 numbers of Combat aircraft would overwhelm US and NATO defenses. THE #1 mantra in the US military, save for a lax period in the 70s after vietnam, was TRAINING, TRAINING, TRAINING. In the USAF fighter world, we were pretty confident that our training tactics and better tech would overcome the Soviet numbers.

I'm glad we stuck by our guns, so to speak, and didn't sacrifice quality for quantity.

 

[Burning Man]

Hey @mikewof , how do you feel now about your boy putty and his compliance with the NPT now that he's threatening nuclear war??

 

[Ishmael]

Hey @mikewof , how do you feel now about your boy putty and his compliance with the NPT now that he's threatening nuclear war??

Since setting off a nuke would actually reduce the number of weapons by one, he must be in favour.

 

[Burning Man]

So seriously, I said this a while ago and I think it's coming back to bite us...... but I said we should have admitted the UKR to NATO the next day and then dared the Russians to invade. We still should do this now to avoid a Nuke incident. I believe pooty's plan now is to annex the remaining territory they have now and then use that as a pretext to prevent the UKR from continuing the CO by blackmailing the west that they will use nukes to "defend" their "homeland".

The longer we let this go, the worse its going to get.