Ukraine and Only Ukraine. If it isn't about Ukraine then fuck off

[spankoka]

One thing I will say about this that NATO/STANAG seems to be working as intended. A bunch of improvised/random materiel seems to be working together for Ukraine. It must really annoy assorted fascists and isolationists in the US, that many Americans donated their own firearms to Ukraine.

Nothing about gun politics in the US at all, but the fact that gun fans in the US tend not to use their gun rights to buy oddball guns-that was good for Ukraine. If I felt free to walk around town with a gun, I would choose a BAR.

 

[hobie1616]

US to send anti-drone machine guns, air defense ammunition to Ukraine

The Pentagon is seeking to give Ukraine what it needs to defend against Russian drones targeting the embattled country's energy infrastructure.

www.defensenews.com

 

[Mid]

 

[Mid]

 

[LeoV]

Fucking thugs

Fake news. Wagner hammer delivered to EU parliament story is not true.

 

[LeoV]

A good piece to read.

The war in Ukraine pits a vertically structured Russia with a subject population against a horizontally structured Ukraine composed of citizens. During Vladimir Putin’s 22 years ruling Russia as president and prime minister he has re-Sovietized the country, fanned militarism, promoted a quasi-religious cult of the Great Patriotic War and Joseph Stalin, and destroyed civil society and volunteer groups.
In Ukraine the opposite has taken place in each of these areas. Ukraine has undergone de-Sovietization since the late 1980s and decommunization since the 2013-2014 Euromaidan Revolution, has denigrated Stalin as a tyrant, switched from military celebration of the Great Patriotic War to commemoration of World War II, and built a dynamic civil society and volunteer movement. Ukrainians have organized three popular revolutions since 1990 to demand their rights; Russia’s last revolution was over a hundred years ago.

How Western Experts Got the Ukraine War So Wrong | Geopolitical Monitor

An outdated propensity to equate Ukraine with Russia lies at the heart of a long list of flawed geopolitical analyses leading up to the Ukraine war.

www.geopoliticalmonitor.com

 

[BeSafe]

Dude, I called this 9 months ago. Where have you been all this time?

The war is about to enter a nastier phase, unfortunately. We crossed the Rubicon for the 'easy' negotiated settlement a few months ago. Push is now to shove.

Kherson is the most important city in south Ukraine for the Russians. They need control of Kherson and the Khakova dam to control Crimea which they need to control their chunk of the Black sea. Its not a coincidence that they started missile attacking civilian infrastructure as they were retreating back across the river. This is it - the Russians are going to keep escalating to hold what they currently hold. This is the border they can live with. To move them more is going to take a lot more pain.

Its going to be a rough winter. The mostly likely breakthrough will be if the Ukrainians can crack through and liberate Melitopol. That'll be the tradeoff. As that threat gains momentum, the Russians will increase their attacks on the civilian population.

If reports are to be believed, the Swedes are sitting on evidence that it was Russian special ops that blew up Nord Stream. That seems suspect but it is an interesting Sword of Damocles. If true, then Russia committed a terrorist act against EU territory and is now a 'state sponsor of terror' which would mean by treaty that any country that trades with them is excluded from the global money system. Since countries like Germany still trade with them for raw materials for industrial production, that really is financial Armageddon. The truth is that's just for show - laws are meant to be broken so it's just talking head fodder.

 

[Mid]

 

[Burning Man]

The war is about to enter a nastier phase, unfortunately. We crossed the Rubicon for the 'easy' negotiated settlement a few months ago. Push is now to shove.

I'm sorry, Where was the "easy" negotiated settlement?? What would that have looked like??

 

[Olsonist]

I'm sorry, Where was the "easy" negotiated settlement?? What would that have looked like??

It was in the area around Ukraine and east, west, south and north somewhat.

Fakebertarians don't explain. They just complain.

(No loop ride for me. Something like RSV.)

 

[Burning Man]

It was in the area around Ukraine and east, west, south and north somewhat.

Fakebertarians don't explain. They just complain.

(No loop ride for me. Something like RSV.)

I'm assuming you're talking pre-invasion and you know damn well the discussion is post. What does a "negotiated" settlement look like post invasion, post war crime atrocity, and post-shelling cities to rubble?

 

[Olsonist]

I'm assuming you're talking pre-invasion and you know damn well the discussion is post. What does a "negotiated" settlement look like post invasion, post war crime atrocity, and post-shelling cities to rubble?

Sorry, I was agreeing with you but my head is thick, well, thicker than usual. There was never, then nor now, any point when the West could have negotiated with Putin. We actually tried and he lied. This has been a war of choice on his part.

This war wasn't about NATO expansion or Victoria Nuland handing out cookies in Maidan Square. It's about Putin.

 

[Burning Man]

Sorry, I was agreeing with you but my head is thick, well, thicker than usual. There was never, then nor now, any point when the West could have negotiated with Putin. We actually tried and he lied. This has been a war of choice on his part.

This war wasn't about NATO expansion or Victoria Nuland handing out cookies in Maidan Square. It's about Putin.

Ah copy.

I would say that even if putty comes to the table now - If I were Zman, I would tell him to go Fuck himself.

 

[Mark_K]

There was a time. It has gone and events have rendered it moot, but there was a time.

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/the-first-six-months-assessment-zelenskyys-achievements

At that time Ukraine was willing to cut a deal which would've left the break-away republics and Crimea in Russian hands. However Zelensky was unable to stop the militias on the 2014 borders from continuing the fight.

 

[Ishmael]

Ah copy.

I would say that even if putty comes to the table now - If I were Zman, I would tell him to go Fuck himself.

Zelenskyy has already said that, in essence. He will not negotiate with Putin. Full stop.

 

[Olsonist]

Ah copy.

I would say that even if putty comes to the table now - If I were Zman, I would tell him to go Fuck himself.

There is no table for Putin to come to. GTFO already. Crimea and the whole shitbang.

I'd hate to get all Treaty of Versailles on his ass because that really didn't work so good but the post-war isn't going to be the Summer of Love. It's not going to look good for Russia in the international market and it isn't going to look good for Russia internally. There's evidence that the Russian mafia is already partying like it's 1999.

 

[BeSafe]

There was a time. It has gone and events have rendered it moot, but there was a time.

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/the-first-six-months-assessment-zelenskyys-achievements

At that time Ukraine was willing to cut a deal which would've left the break-away republics and Crimea in Russian hands. However Zelensky was unable to stop the militias on the 2014 borders from continuing the fight.

Yea, that's essentially it. Easy doesn't mean fair or right or just - it just means easy. The terms were there but its past that now. Now it gets rough.

The US intelleigence provides target and guidance data to the Ukrainians. That's how they keep a leash on things spilling over the border. But if Ukraine can't attack Russia proper, then what's left is a nasty 'war of attrition' until one of the two sides has had enough. Ukraine doesn't have enough ships to get across the river and Russia can blow up any pontoon bridges as easily as Ukraine could. So Kherson is a standoff. That leaves Melitopol and it's railways.

I don't bother with Olsonist anymore because he just makes shit up - commitment bias and a endless straw man army are legion.

 

[Stingray~]

This is a terribly pessimistic scenario but one that is surely a possibility.

With Ukraine getting increasingly crippled and with evacuations of towns starting, people being encouraged to leave cities for safety to elsewhere in Europe, possible evacuations of the cities being spoken of for those who remain, and the possibility of the country getting laid to waste to the point that even the front lines can't be resupplied, well.... What makes anyone think Putin is in any mood to negotiate anything? He seems perfectly willing to turn the country into a blown-out wasteland and then invade again later.

Something drastic has to change.

 

[Olsonist]

I think the most important thing for the West to address right now is buttressing and repairing Ukraine's energy grid. Winter is going to suck. It should suck a lot more for the Russians.

 

[Stingray~]

It should suck a lot more for the Russians.

Good chance but how will that end the increasingly devastating pulverization going on, by the missile strikes?

Heard on BBC earlier today about some efforts that people can contribute to, named something like 'portable transformers for Ukraine' - seems like a good effort but if they can't even move gasoline around then what help can it do? When you have no electricity the trains don't run, the trolleys don't run, the gas pumps can't pump, the elevators don't work, you can't even flush your toilet! The situation is BAD.

Something has to change this horrible trajectory.