Ukraine and Only Ukraine. If it isn't about Ukraine then fuck off

Ishmael

54,103
13,374
Fuctifino
If the rumours that the mobilization disproportionately targetted certain ethnic groups and regions in Russia are true, and enough of their boys come back in boxes, loyalty to the Kremlin is likely to evaporate.
I was just thinking that Russia was starting to fray at the edges. I wouldn't be surprised to see something happening in Belarus soon.
 

Steam Flyer

Sophisticated Yet Humble
45,426
10,207
Eastern NC
If the rumours that the mobilization disproportionately targetted certain ethnic groups and regions in Russia are true, and enough of their boys come back in boxes, loyalty to the Kremlin is likely to evaporate.

Didn't Putin say he wanted to expand the Army to ~250K men, and the police/security forces to 900K? Sounds like he's planning on keeping Russia as a conquered/occupied country. Maybe he's doing it backwards, send his police to Ukraine and let his soldiers keep order at home.
 

Mark_K

Super Anarchist
Anyone really think Russia can build back better?

Their population and brain drain, ruined economy and systemic corruption probably prevents them from achieving much without change of leadership and government structure.

I think they are toast. Fragmentation is more likely, with thousands of ICBMs and nuclear warheads fueling terrorism around the world.

This ain’t gonna end well.
Certainly they can. They were well on their way to integration with the rest of Europe, a process that will take several generations to complete. These days we take them for granted, but it took well more than a hundred years for the systems, both social and legal, which allow our form of government to function to become fully established and refined.
 

12 metre

Super Anarchist
4,004
776
English Bay
Maybe Japan can think about buying back the Kuril Islands, if Russia ends up totally broke and is parted out.
More likely China would look to take back the large amount of land lost to Russia from the Amur Annexation. Funny how the words "Russia" and "annexation" appear together so often in a sentence.

Either by money or by force if Russia becomes totally fucked. Whichever way is easiest.
 

Rain Man

Super Anarchist
7,372
2,179
Wet coast.
I was just thinking that Russia was starting to fray at the edges. I wouldn't be surprised to see something happening in Belarus soon.
Yes, Belarus will be interesting. Putin has been trying to get Lukashenko to commit his armed forces to fight alongside the Russians, but it would be the end of Lukashenko. His army will not follow that order, they have only been willing to stand at the border, do exercises with the Russians, and step out of the way while Russia invades Ukraine. Lukashenko could try to purge the top military command to get more compliance, but he will end up purging himself in the process.

I keep expecting Belarus to blow up in Putin's face. I get the impression the people in Belarus want to join the West. The army knows that - and are just waiting for the right moment to make it so. Ukraine knows it, and has been careful not to antagonize or attack the Belarussians across the border.
 

spankoka

Super Anarchist
I think it is a de-facto process for the outposts of the Russian Empire. If the islanders in the Kurils (or wherever)do not hear from Moscow much-then of course these places gradually move into other spheres of influence. I have never been there, but from what I hear-Japanese yen is the everyday currency in Kurils. Obviously; fisheries enforcement in those waters comes down to Japan, if Russian government boats do not have enough fuel to leave port.
 
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Ishmael

54,103
13,374
Fuctifino
Yes, Belarus will be interesting. Putin has been trying to get Lukashenko to commit his armed forces to fight alongside the Russians, but it would be the end of Lukashenko. His army will not follow that order, they have only been willing to stand at the border, do exercises with the Russians, and step out of the way while Russia invades Ukraine. Lukashenko could try to purge the top military command to get more compliance, but he will end up purging himself in the process.

I keep expecting Belarus to blow up in Putin's face. I get the impression the people in Belarus want to join the West. The army knows that - and are just waiting for the right moment to make it so. Ukraine knows it, and has been careful not to antagonize or attack the Belarussians across the border.

We are agreed. We could be wrong, but I think Belarus is going to be a sticking spot for Putin. I assume Lukashenko has his villa in Venezuela already furnished.
 

Zonker

Super Anarchist
10,169
6,360
Canada
I was very surprised that Poland was buying 116 more M1A1 tanks from the US. Those are the early models but still very good composite Chobham armor.

They are already buying 200+ tanks from S. Korea. Poland will have the baddest land army in Europe before long (especially since Russia keeps losing equipment and is using 1960's era tanks in front line service)

 

sparau

Super Anarchist
1,177
236
Sunshine Coast Aus
If the rumours that the mobilization disproportionately targetted certain ethnic groups and regions in Russia are true, and enough of their boys come back in boxes, loyalty to the Kremlin is likely to evaporate.
Maybe, I've watched a few 1420 (youtube channel) street interviews where they go 400 km east of Moscow, the level of ignorance, lack of worldliness, national fervour and trust in their government would be extreme for a medieval peasant.
Think VVV level education and even less critical thinking skills.
 

spankoka

Super Anarchist
From what I understand, the US is ramping up production of artillery to give Ukraine a three or four year supply. I suppose if there are new 155mm guns and shells in the pipeline, then other NATO nations might feel free to ship more of their own supply to Ukraine.
 

billy backstay

Backstay, never bought a suit, never went to Vegas
From what I understand, the US is ramping up production of artillery to give Ukraine a three or four year supply. I suppose if there are new 155mm guns and shells in the pipeline, then other NATO nations might feel free to ship more of their own supply to Ukraine.

Looks like another $400 million in munitions. Is that retail or wholesale? And is it the latest bells and whistles toys or mothballed old stuff?

 

hasher

Super Anarchist
6,820
1,150
Insanity
Maybe, I've watched a few 1420 (youtube channel) street interviews where they go 400 km east of Moscow, the level of ignorance, lack of worldliness, national fervour and trust in their government would be extreme for a medieval peasant.
Think VVV level education and even less critical thinking skills.
Polls reportedly show that public support in Russia for the "special military operation" has significantly decreased. They were cited by independent Russian media outlets that claimed the data was collected by the Federal Defense Service for internal use. Only 25% of Russians reportedly claimed that they were in favor of continuing the fighting. JPOST.COM
 

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