Mark_K
Super Anarchist
He's probably right about it. In the open the Rooskies are likely to get creamed. Zaporizhia and Crimea are takable. Note his mention of how costly urban combat is. When it comes time to take big places like the city of Donetsk it will depend on if the Russian infantry will fight like their great-grandpappys did in Stalingrad, or perhaps like those Wagner jailbirds did in Bakmut. Morale should not be confused with desire to achieve political objectives. It can also be a simple matter of knowing beyond all doubt one has to fight or die.Buried in that is a very concise description of ground warfare with battles, pauses, follow on units, and reconstitution of depleted units who then can go back up and follow on through another group. I learned a bunch reading that.
They could make taking all the territory lost in 2014 not worth the cost. It's possible. A perhaps plausible end-state could be the pre-2022 lines, less Crimea, with the pre-2014 condition of guaranteed Russians access to their base at Sevastopol restored. Both get a face-saver. The Ukrainians for obviously kicking big bad Russia out, and the Russians get to say they preserved the break-away "republics". Peace with honor all around.