Ukraine and Only Ukraine. If it isn't about Ukraine then fuck off

[FinnFish]

still committed and we are ramping up weapon deliveries to meet that commitment. It's about high fucking time, I might add.

I respectfully disagree. Ukraine is getting towards the point where highly skilled soldiers are in short supply, so they're effectively running out of people to pull the trigger. Russia will eventually win this, they have capacity for a long grind and are unrestricted by any moral/ethical boundaries. Thus far they've managed to cause a European (and global) energy crisis and now it seems a global grain shortage that will likely result in food shortages and starvation, mainly in 3rd world countries.

The 'headline' of the Ukraine conflict has now slipped to barely a mention in the evening news, reminiscent of Afghanistan.

 

[Crooked Beat]

Estonia’s PM says country would be ‘wiped from map’ under existing Nato plans

 

[Mark_K]

Big supporter of Ukraine here, but I'm tired of all the popular news items glorifying their military successes against Russia while ignoring the bigger picture. Back in February I thought Russia would quickly overwhelm Ukrainians defenses and take the whole country in short order, as they did in Crimea 2014. Obviously very wrong there, but still convinced that Soviet fascist might will eventually take the whole place over unless Putin dies and someone more rational takes his place, which seems unlikely.

I think he's learned his lesson around Kyiv. Ukraine didn't turn out to be filled with Ukrainian malcontents so taking it would jusy be a "matter of marching". They thought they could roll a few BTGs on Kyiv and, by golly, they would be welcomed as liberators! Sounds vaguely familiar..doesn't it? Turned out to be a country of people who will fight for their homeland every bit as hard as Russians would fight to keep theirs. So it goes, or went...

Now it's about taking the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts completely, and seeking to negotiate a peace after they do so, IMO, and I could be wrong. At the outset I was wrong to think those forces north of Kyiv were just decoy to cover to draw away forces in the east for the taking of those two oblasts, so that's a distinct possibility.

 

[Ishmael]

Dammit, there aren't any potato smilies. What's become of this place?

 

[LeoV]

Now it's about taking the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts completely, and seeking to negotiate a peace after they do so, IMO, and I could be wrong.

Russia controls now nearly 55% of Donetsk Oblast. A long way to go. Maybe their goal is smaller, a natural defence line like a river or a height line.
Luhansk is captured very soon, a few % left. They have parts of Kharkiv,Zaporizhzhia and big chunk of Kherson oblast.

People still thinking Russia will overrun Ukraine...or that Ukraine will overrun the occupied areas... Not the reality on the ground, Russia advances in limited area to capture a bulge. And it is taking a long time with heavy losses. But they will take that bulge in the coming weeks. Reservist with almost no training just send to the front. No wonder it advances so slow. Deaths are counted in deaths per advanced Km. If they want all east of Dnepr river as originally planned, there will be no Russian army left with those numbers. Ukraine is in the same conundrum, when and even if they start to attack on a big scale, losses will be high. See their slow advance North of Kharkiv. Do not attack in big numbers. So the next months will be more of the same. Maybe Ukraine can turn it around by new material in combined use hitting logistics (that was the reason for their victory around Kyiv etc), or Russia finds a weak spot somewhere. Though defence is in depth on both sides.

BTW the area Russia advanced and Ukraine lost, is balanced near Kherson.

 

[BeSafe]

Putin was right about one thing. The West would soon tire of the Ukraine war and hearing constantly about it. This thread has been on page two for many hours now, and, I believe, that reflects where this is going generally.

The only way to keep interested would be to commit actual troops. Otherwise, it's just a hashtag.

----------------

Some context with pictures. Russia has historically been invaded through a series of gaps. The relevant ones to Europe are via the Black Sea, the Bessarabian Gap, the Polish Gap, and the Baltic sea. The Russians want C - they'll settle for B. But to be a viable state, the Ukrainians really need to push Russia back to A. If they can get Kherson, Mykolaviv and Odessa, they'd be ok. Not great, but at least doable. The problem is, they need to take Kherson back BEFORE the Russians consolidate in the east or Russia will then reinforce Kherson and Ukraine has lost.

Its an old map but if you want to know where the native support for Russia within Ukraine, it's roughly along :

So far, the Russians have taken the 80%+ regions. Control of the 46% region is where you'll be able to tell who 'won or lost' when this is all over. Expect to see Russia do a massive buildup in Belarus along the western border and - the scary part - is if they decide to try and take back the Baltics. <--- Reclaiming the Baltics is the 'bucket list' conquests of Putin before he dies.

 

[LeoV]

Its an old map but if you want to know where the native support for Russia within Ukraine, it's roughly along :

Which is an outrageous claim to make from that stat.
We are a bilingual state, support for that is over 90%, while only around 7% procent speaks that second language. And there was a separatist movement in the past with a whopping support off les then 1 in the 1000 in that area of 7%.

There are even a lot of Russian first language speaking Ukrainians in the army fighting against Russia.

So your mention of native support for Russia is totally out of whack, sorry. But is was a main core of Russia propaganda, they are awaiting us with flowers turned out to be with Javelins. If they want to speak Russian, they are loving Russia. Wrong.

Agree with getting B back is more important then A.

If Russia attacks Baltic, the NATO wil be involved. And their missiles. St Petersburg will look like Mariupol in no time. Kalingrad will be gone too. Moscow in reach. Belarus gone. The RU navy gone. The airforce gone. Putin can dream, and maybe he is that crazy, but with his dented army now...

 

[phill_nz]

if you want to know where the native support for Russia within Ukraine, it's roughly along :

... with ... mostly gone now .. even the z grannie is openly anti russsia now

If Russia attacks Baltic, the NATO wil be involved. And their missiles. St Petersburg will look like Mariupol in no time. Kalingrad will be gone too. Moscow in reach. Belarus gone. The RU navy gone. The airforce gone. Putin can dream, and maybe he is that crazy, but with his dented army now...

and none of that would require putting a foot inside russia
i could not think of one sane above 70 iq person who thinks putin is intelligent

 

[d'ranger]

Do any of the "Ukraine can't win" crowd remember when the Afghans made them leave? To state that Russia has support among Ukraine is ignorance or outright propaganda.

Ukraine won't lose because it can't lose - they know all too well their fate under the Russian heel.
slava Ukraine

 

[Rain Man]

If Russia attacks Baltic, the NATO wil be involved. And their missiles. St Petersburg will look like Mariupol in no time. Kalingrad will be gone too. Moscow in reach. Belarus gone. The RU navy gone. The airforce gone. Putin can dream, and maybe he is that crazy, but with his dented army now...

I would be surprised if that happened, but there would be a lot more Russian infrastructure that needed to be replaced. Pretty much every airport, military, energy, and transportation facility.

It would never get to that point, however, because Putin would likely start throwing nukes around well before that, unless his senior officers revolt.

 

[LeoV]

I mean the industrial area and infrastructure, and it is big all around the city. Lots of infrastructure there for the whole region and Baltic Fleet.With airport, road, trains, oil depots, chemical and machine making industry and even Nordstream near Vyborg. All that industrial area will be the target, not the civilians area. It is the 2d Russian city. It will be unviable to live there with everything burning around them.
Together with Moermansk in the North, as big naval port and industry area, Kalingrad as naval base. Russia has a problem, all are very close to the border and crucial for a war in the wider Baltics.

 

[Mark_K]

Russia controls now nearly 55% of Donetsk Oblast. A long way to go. Maybe their goal is smaller, a natural defence line like a river or a height line.
Luhansk is captured very soon, a few % left. They have parts of Kharkiv,Zaporizhzhia and big chunk of Kherson oblast.

Could be. Russian concern for their state of disarray after withdrawing from Kyiv and Kharkiv led them to maintain- the-initiative ops in the Lysychansk pocket, and they may simply have gotten lucky there. None of what they have gained or stand to gain there seems worth the price...unless it prevented the Ukrainians from organizing an offensive.

 

[The Dark Knight]

If Russia attacks Baltic, the NATO wil be involved. And their missiles. St Petersburg will look like Mariupol in no time. Kalingrad will be gone too. Moscow in reach. Belarus gone. The RU navy gone. The airforce gone. Putin can dream, and maybe he is that crazy, but with his dented army now...

why would they want/need to destroy St Petersburg? Sure there will be some targets within the city for command and control they will want to target. They would not want to lower themselves to Putin tactics. Anyway total destruction of cities is normally associated with land wars and the need to go it for street by street fighting.

 

[Olsonist]

If Russia attacks Baltic, the NATO wil be involved. And their missiles. St Petersburg will look like Mariupol in no time. Kalingrad will be gone too. Moscow in reach. Belarus gone. The RU navy gone. The airforce gone. Putin can dream, and maybe he is that crazy, but with his dented army now...

Why don't you just say you want a nuclear war?

 

[Blue Crab]

I've read too many spy v. spy. I'm very disappointed that we don't have spies embedded to take Putin out.

 

[Ishmael]

Bad fireworks.

 

[Rain Man]

Bad fireworks.

The SAM probably decided to lock on to someone's wifi router, or backyard barbeque.

 

[LeoV]

Why don't you just say you want a nuclear war?

And you think that when and IF Russia attacks the Baltics, they just shoot with flowers.... They will try the same.
Anyway, convinced they will not attack for years, there is almost no army left there. The big casualities in Russain ranks all in the Western District battalions.

 

[BeSafe]

The Ukranians are massing for the push on Melitopol. This is their push to the sea. They need help - now is the time for air support. I truly believe that July will define Ukraine for the next 20 years.

 

[d'ranger]

Russians are advancing about 1km/day at a cost of 1,000 men and tons of equipment. Ukraine is smart enough to not go toe to toe but make them pay for every inch (or mm) of ground. Every city they pound to rubble uses up tons of munitions and serves to steel the locals to fight back. There will be a big push back, my sense is August but it's coming and the Russians are going to shredded with the new heavy smart artillery. Something that doesn't get mentioned often is morale: Ukraine is fighting for their lives, Russians are fighting for a few rubles and wondering why they are hated there. Not a great formula for winning. Is potato.