Ukraine and Only Ukraine. If it isn't about Ukraine then fuck off

[Olsonist]

Computes a hell of a lot better than signing an agreement but stopping the shipments with artillery does.

Remember when Putin was saying they weren't going to invade when they were clearly planning, preparing and then invading? This is mixed messaging, a hallmark of Russian as opposed to Soviet propaganda.

I'll bet you a used starboard crossing that grain ships never leave port, never even arrive.

 

[Ease the sheet.]

Remember when Putin was saying they weren't going to invade when they were clearly planning, preparing and then invading? This is mixed messaging, a hallmark of Russian as opposed to Soviet propaganda.

I'll bet you a used starboard crossing that grain ships never leave port, never even arrive.

I suspect grain ships will leave port.
But they won't contain Ukrainian grain....

 

[Olsonist]

I suspect grain ships will leave port.
But they won't contain Ukrainian grain....

They have to get ships, and crews, and insurance. It ain't happening.
The Russians will claim the missile strike didn't happen.

 

[Ease the sheet.]

They have to get ships, and crews, and insurance. It ain't happening.
The Russians will claim the missile strike didn't happen.

Damn the legalities, Russia needs some money....

 

[Olsonist]

Damn the legalities, Russia needs some money....

You're processing this rationally using your academic and professional training.
But the Russians are instead trying to fuck with the way the Ukrainian populace (and the West) thinks,
by giving them something they want and then taking it away, by fucking with their reality.
It has nothing to do with money.

 

[Ease the sheet.]

You're processing this rationally using your academic and professional training.
But the Russians are instead trying to fuck with the way the Ukrainian populace (and the West) thinks,
by giving them something they want and then taking it away, by fucking with their reality.
It has nothing to do with money.

Psychology before money....

 

[Burning Man]

Reports from a couple of writers I follow who know their stuff - report one comes from a fighter in Donbas saying they are very happy that Ukraine fighters are flying over their positions on a regular basis. Which brings up the 2nd: The US & Nato have sent 80 Mig-29s to Ukraine on the downlow with some listed as "parts". Ukraine has done a great job keeping their planes intact by among other things parking under underpasses to keep them hidden. Not going to go dig up the links since I read these while mobile so take it for what you want. I have no reason to question or disbelieve either one.
slava Ukraine

That's awesome!

 

[Burning Man]

Remember when Putin was saying they weren't going to invade when they were clearly planning, preparing and then invading? This is mixed messaging, a hallmark of Russian as opposed to Soviet propaganda.

I'll bet you a used starboard crossing that grain ships never leave port, never even arrive.

THIS^^! I said to myself when they announced the deal..... "Self, I'll believe it when I see it".

 

[LeoV]

Agree that is psy war.

On the other hand, some African countries claimed they were the guys responsible for this deal and saving their voters from starvation.
Most of the leaders are silent Russia supporters. Stupid to claim something they did not do. They are fucked over by Russia as well.

The effect of psy war can be limited in time, so would not be surprised that in a few weeks ships will be sailing.
Or not.

 

[Steam Flyer]

Agree that is psy war.

On the other hand, some African countries claimed they were the guys responsible for this deal and saving their voters from starvation.
Most of the leaders are silent Russia supporters. Stupid to claim something they did not do. They are fucked over by Russia as well.

The effect of psy war can be limited in time, so would not be surprised that in a few weeks ships will be sailing.
Or not.

I hope you're right.

I also think this kind of schrecklichtheidt tends to backfire.

 

[Knut Grotzki]

or with Brexit Boris

 

[Mid]

 

[Olsonist]

Agree that is psy war.

On the other hand, some African countries claimed they were the guys responsible for this deal and saving their voters from starvation.
Most of the leaders are silent Russia supporters. Stupid to claim something they did not do. They are fucked over by Russia as well.

The effect of psy war can be limited in time, so would not be surprised that in a few weeks ships will be sailing.
Or not.

Agreed. At the same time, the whole conception of this war is stupid. It was stupid before it started and no one could believe Putin would go through with it because it was so stupid. He's in a much worse place strategically (Finland+Sweden are joining NATO and his army is shown to be Potemkin conscripts). He's in a much worse place economically with sanctions, seizures and an economy itself in free fall. He's in a much worse place diplomatically with even Russia curious countries (Israel) abandoning him and a West united against him.

Yeah, this psy-ops tactic is so very cute. Limited in time overrates it. Sometimes their stuff works brilliantly, for example Belarus 2020. This time, it's not going to work and then as you point out, the Africans who are Russia curious are going to be pissed.

Putin was smarter than W the Stupid and he was smarter than Shitstain. But he's not smart. Funny thing is that I used to think he was. But he was just surrounded by some smart technocrats (Nabiullina was well thought of) who are now shoved off to the side. Left to himself, unchecked by actual smart people, he's pretty stupid.

 

[Mark_K]

Remember when Putin was saying they weren't going to invade when they were clearly planning, preparing and then invading? This is mixed messaging, a hallmark of Russian as opposed to Soviet propaganda.

I'll bet you a used starboard crossing that grain ships never leave port, never even arrive.

I don't recall Putin saying they weren't going to invade during the build-up.

 

[Olsonist]

I don't recall Putin saying they weren't going to invade during the build-up.

Russian ambassador denies accusations of invasion plans, says Moscow is committed to diplomacy

Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Anatoly Antonov on Sunday denied accusations from Western governments that Moscow is planning to invade Ukraine as tensions increase in the region.”Th…

thehill.com

They also denied they were going to invade Crimea even as they were invading Crimea.

 

[spankoka]

The thing of it is-Putin wants starvation in Africa and the Middle East, to drive the refugee crises in Western Europe.

 

[Mark_K]

Russian ambassador denies accusations of invasion plans, says Moscow is committed to diplomacy

Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Anatoly Antonov on Sunday denied accusations from Western governments that Moscow is planning to invade Ukraine as tensions increase in the region.”Th…

thehill.com

They also denied they were going to invade Crimea even as they were invading Crimea.

They typically deny anything at all happened when they screw up too.

 

[LeoV]

DarthPutin;
Months - 5
Victories - 0
Casualties - 40,000+
Dead Generals - Lost Count
Goodwill Gestures - 1 (so far)
Economy - Tanking
Capital Ships - 1 fewer
Finland & Sweden - NATO
War crimes - Countless
Genocides - In progress
Odessa - Bombed
HIMARS - o'clock

I remain a master strategist

 

[LeoV]

The thing of it is-Putin wants starvation in Africa and the Middle East, to drive the refugee crises in Western Europe.

Which could backfire, it cost an eaverage refugee from Africa at least 5000 up to 10.000 Euro to reach Europe. If they starve they do not have money. How wealthier they became the more ecenomic refugees went to the EU. Weird but true. Family stood guarentee for the money thinking the one send would become rich. Nope.

 

[Olsonist]

They typically deny anything at all happened when they screw up too.

Yep, they'll deny anything at all happened in Odesa as well and then blame the Ukes for not shipping.
The trouble with these psyops tactics is they're probably more effective in politics (e.g. Belarus, 2016).
But in the case of a war war where the civilian populace is completely bought in, it isn't going to work.
I don't think the Africans will be very impressed either.

But psyops is what they have and so psyops is what they'll do.