Ukraine and Only Ukraine. If it isn't about Ukraine then fuck off

[Mark_K]

Yep, they'll deny anything at all happened in Odesa as well and then blame the Ukes for not shipping.
The trouble with these psyops tactics is they're probably more effective in politics (e.g. Belarus, 2016).
But in the case of a war war where the civilian populace is completely bought in, it isn't going to work.
I don't think the Africans will be very impressed either.

But psyops is what they have and so psyops is what they'll do.

But a psyop that make oneself appear completely nuts?

 

[LeoV]

One thing, Putin has now full control over Russia. Before the war, he had some competition.
And the west must learn to deal with a nutcase doing Psyops like North Korea.

 

[BeSafe]

But a psyop that make oneself appear completely nuts?

There's really are only so many possibilities -

1) False Flag - seems very unlikely. There's an awful lot of reconnaissance going on around Odessa and a lot of cameras, so lies get uncovered. "Look look, the Russians are cheating!" False flag to confirm what everyone expects anyway? Seems sketch. Highly unlikely.

2) Fog of War - some commander/mission leader didn't get the memo and carried out a planned attack. You can't be all knowing 4-d chess grand master and bubling and stupid at the same time. The various missteps all along have shown they aren't all knowing - they're sloppy. Possible but not probable.

3) Intentional sabotage. Some commander/mission leader doesn't want the deal to go through and 'accidentally' ordered the strike. Yea, not likely at all - too easy to verify and stupid limited in effect. Off to the gulag you go.

4) Psyop a - the Russians want people to believe they don't / can't really control the battlefield. Highly Unlikely.

5) Psyop b - they want to force the Ukrainians to doubt their sincerity so they won't redeploy any of their defensive capabilities. <- most probable in my opinion. They fired a few missiles at non-critical targets to force the Ukrainians to keep their anti-missile batteries in place.

Just for reference, here's the port from one of the news outlets. If the Russians really wanted to prevent the grain from moving, they'd hit the grain silos. Those big ass round targets all along port. The Russians are getting paid to let the grain out - they're going to get to sell THEIR grain and THEIR fertilizer as part of the deal. I think it was 5. They're trying to keep the Ukranians off balance.

 

[Mark_K]

There's really are only so many possibilities -

1) False Flag - seems very unlikely. There's an awful lot of reconnaissance going on around Odessa and a lot of cameras, so lies get uncovered. "Look look, the Russians are cheating!" False flag to confirm what everyone expects anyway? Seems sketch. Highly unlikely.

2) Fog of War - some commander/mission leader didn't get the memo and carried out a planned attack. You can't be all knowing 4-d chess grand master and bubling and stupid at the same time. The various missteps all along have shown they aren't all knowing - they're sloppy. Possible but not probable.

3) Intentional sabotage. Some commander/mission leader doesn't want the deal to go through and 'accidentally' ordered the strike. Yea, not likely at all - too easy to verify and stupid limited in effect. Off to the gulag you go.

4) Psyop a - the Russians want people to believe they don't / can't really control the battlefield. Highly Unlikely.

5) Psyop b - they want to force the Ukrainians to doubt their sincerity so they won't redeploy any of their defensive capabilities. <- most probable in my opinion. They fired a few missiles at non-critical targets to force the Ukrainians to keep their anti-missile batteries in place.

Just for reference, here's the port from one of the news outlets. If the Russians really wanted to prevent the grain from moving, they'd hit the grain silos. Those big ass round targets all along port. The Russians are getting paid to let the grain out - they're going to get to sell THEIR grain and THEIR fertilizer as part of the deal. I think it was 5. They're trying to keep the Ukranians off balance.


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Exactly, and as you say if the goal was to prevent the grain shipments why didn't they hit the grain silos? I would guess some officer might not have gotten the memo, but it's easy to picture an officer knowing one would be coming shortly and trying to go for a last Parthian shot at what his intell told him were a couple military assets near the port.

Occum's Razor makes #2 the most probable, does it not?

 

[Olsonist]

But a psyop that make oneself appear completely nuts?

Yes, what they did was completely nuts, especially to us, sitting half a world away,
But I'm not here defending the efficacy of Russian psyops.
I'm only saying that they are psyops.

Before the invasion their life was good. They traded energy + grain.
Their oligarchs owned soccer clubs in London and basketball teams in Brooklyn.
They had billions and mistresses and superyachts stashed overseas.
Their elites could jet to Paris for shopping. Moscow was partay central.

But then they chose to go up against the fuckin' West, a GDP 25+ times
their size *before* their invasion started, with a conventional military obscenely better.
Even now they're in a strategically much worse position.
They're in an economically drastically worse position.

(This all kind of reminds me of W the Stupid choosing to spend $6T
making craters in the ground in the Middle East to promote freedom. I digress.)

Psyops is what they have. So psyops is what they'll do.
When psyops fail, WHAM, they look completely nuts.

 

[Mark_K]

Yes, what they did was completely nuts, especially to us, sitting half a world away,
But I'm not here defending the efficacy of Russian psyops.
I'm only saying that they are psyops.

Before the invasion their life was good. They traded energy + grain.
Their oligarchs owned soccer clubs in London and basketball teams in Brooklyn.
They had billions and mistresses and superyachts stashed overseas.
Their elites could jet to Paris for shopping. Moscow was partay central.

But then they chose to go up against the fuckin' West, a GDP 25+ times
their size *before* their invasion started, with a conventional military obscenely better.
Even now they're in a strategically much worse position.
They're in an economically drastically worse position.

(This all kind of reminds me of W the Stupid choosing to spend $6T
making craters in the ground in the Middle East to promote freedom. I digress.)

Psyops is what they have. So psyops is what they'll do.
When psyops fail, WHAM, they look completely nuts.

Yes, the structure of their attack on Kyiv indicates they fell into that same trap we did on Iraq, believing their own BS, that they would be welcomed as liberators in combination with believing it would be easy. "Six days, six weeks, I doubt six months" said Rumsfeld, as he fired Shinseki for suggesting the opposite.

It wasn't a psyop IMO, he really believed it.

 

[BeSafe]

Exactly, and as you say if the goal was to prevent the grain shipments why didn't they hit the grain silos? I would guess some officer might not have gotten the memo, but it's easy to picture an officer knowing one would be coming shortly and trying to go for a last Parthian shot at what his intell told him were a couple military assets near the port.

Occum's Razor makes #2 the most probable, does it not?

Its definitely the easiest answer.

 

[Olsonist]

Yes, the structure of their attack on Kyiv indicates they fell into that same trap we did on Iraq, believing their own BS, that they would be welcomed as liberators in combination with believing it would be easy. "Six days, six weeks, I doubt six months" said Rumsfeld, as he fired Shinseki for suggesting the opposite.

It wasn't a psyop IMO, he really believed it.

Iraq wasn't a psyop. Well, it wasn't a psyop against the Iraqis at least. Did Rumsfeld believe it? He fired Shinseki. Cheney and his crew outed Plame. Iraq was a defeated country with a no fly zone and the UN gave them a daily colonoscopy. Iraq was no threat to us and we had no proof of WMDs.

Iraq wasn't a War of Belief. Iraq was a War of Choice. My comparison is between Putin's war of choice and W the Stupid's war of choice.

 

[Steam Flyer]

Iraq wasn't a psyop. Well, it wasn't a psyop against the Iraqis at least. Did Rumsfeld believe it? He fired Shinseki. Cheney and his crew outed Plame. Iraq was a defeated country with a no fly zone and the UN gave them a daily colonoscopy. Iraq was no threat to us and we had no proof of WMDs.

Iraq wasn't a War of Belief. Iraq was a War of Choice. My comparison is between Putin's war of choice and W the Stupid's war of choice.

fucking hell, they were strutting around bragging about how the Iraqis were going to name their kids after them. Yes Rumsfeld & Co believed their own bullshit, and unfortunately far too many USAnians believed their bullshit too. In some ways, that was the beginning of the hard seperation of the Republican cult from reality.

 

[Olsonist]

If I say to you that Boston Celtics fans are going to name their children Steph, Klay and Dray do I necessarily believe that just because I’m telling it to you?

Rumsfeld, … didn’t believe it. They just wanted you to believe it. I hate to burst your bubble but there’s this thing called lying. It’s where people don’t tell the truth. It’s a common thing with Republicans.

They were lying.

 

[Steam Flyer]

If I say to you that Boston Celtics fans are going to name their children Steph, Klay and Dray do I necessarily believe that just because I’m telling it to you?

Rumsfeld, … didn’t believe it. They just wanted you to believe it. I hate to burst your bubble but there’s this thing called lying. It’s where people don’t tell the truth. It’s a common thing with Republicans.

They were lying.

Well, duh

But my own personal belief is that Rummy and most of the others... probably not Cheney, he seems to have the non-beating heart of a vampire who does not believe anything... did actually believe their own bullshit.

 

[Lark]

If the neoconservative pro-war lot didn’t believe their own BS, they sure did a piss poor job of occupying a hostile conquered country. It’s really hard to be that wrong and not be suffering some sort of mental disorder, so delusional seems likely.

 

[Keith]

 

[LeoV]

Ruskies better save some military stuff for the future. Poland thinks it knows Russian weakness, high military spending can collapse Russia like the USSR. Not a bad thought.

Poland’s Defense Minister has announced that Poland will create the EU’s largest land forces. The size of the army will increase to 400 000 and it will be served by 1000+ modern Main Battle Tanks.

Poland is buying:
1000 K2PL MBTs
672 K9 self-propelled howitzers
Up to 1400 Borsuk IFVs
48 FA50 fighter jets

They will built the chassis etc for tanks, howitzers and IFV in Poland under a license. Probably half of it is a bluff, but who knows.

 

[barfy]

Half is still 500 MBT's..
Go Poland go!

 

[Olsonist]

If the neoconservative pro-war lot didn’t believe their own BS, they sure did a piss poor job of occupying a hostile conquered country. It’s really hard to be that wrong and not be suffering some sort of mental disorder, so delusional seems likely.

They made a LOT of money.

 

[Keith]

 

[ato]

Germany delivered 3 of the first 15 Gepard tanks. With ammo, lol. Just on the tv news.

 

[Mark_K]

If I say to you that Boston Celtics fans are going to name their children Steph, Klay and Dray do I necessarily believe that just because I’m telling it to you?

Rumsfeld, … didn’t believe it. They just wanted you to believe it. I hate to burst your bubble but there’s this thing called lying. It’s where people don’t tell the truth. It’s a common thing with Republicans.

They were lying.

No, Rummy really believed it. See "Fiasco".

 

[Mark_K]

If the neoconservative pro-war lot didn’t believe their own BS, they sure did a piss poor job of occupying a hostile conquered country. It’s really hard to be that wrong and not be suffering some sort of mental disorder, so delusional seems likely.

Humans believing what they want to believe is fairly common to the species.